Footballguys’ “Roundtable” articles enable several writers to contribute answers to a question on fantasy gamers’ minds. The site includes several each week and numerous pieces over the summer to help readers think critically about draft strategy.
“Eleven Deep Sleepers at Tight End” offered players staff members would recommend that were typically available outside the top 150 offensive players. Jacksonville tight end Evan Engram was the most popular choice in July.
Through 15 weeks, Engram resides in fourth place among fantasy tight ends. The success of the preseason forecast does not feel worthy of a victory lap. Engram ranked 16th after 13 weeks. Few would have sought him out before his Week-14 outburst versus Tennessee.
Engram caught 11 passes for 162 yards and 2 touchdowns. The performance that delivered 39 fantasy points amounts to 30 percent of his year-to-date fantasy production.
Billy M on Twitter Evan Engram is having the game of his life right now pic.twitter.com/YRBXNgWutt— Billy M (@BillyM_91) December 11, 2022 Twitter
A Jaguar Does It Again!
Rayshawn Jenkins entered Week 15 ranked 16th among safeties in fantasy points. He capitalized on a plus match-up against Dallas for 39.25 fantasy points in Footballguys’ scoring system, besting his teammate, Engram by a quarter of a point. Jenkins increased his season-long point total by 33 percent and vaulted into third place on the leaderboard of fantasy safeties.
Jenkins, like Engram, was a deep sleeper before the season. His name does not appear in the 131 defenders with an average draft position on the Sleeper fantasy football platform.
Despite advantageous situations and ample opportunities, both players have underperformed for fantasy gamers for years. Engram, the former first-round pick of the Giants, has played in 45 games in the past three seasons. During that time, he has averaged just 8.7 fantasy points per game in PPR formats despite running 31.4 routes per game (calculated from PFF data).
Jenkins has played 2,636 snaps in 43 games since 2020. He lined up in the box for 47 percent of them, based on data from Pro Football Focus. His tackle rate in this span was a mediocre 9 percent per snap before his Week 15 explosion. He scored the first touchdown of his career in Week 15 and collected his fourth and fifth interceptions since 2020.
The Makings of a Good Fantasy Safety
Derwin James is one of the few players ahead of Jenkins on the leaderboard. The preseason consensus top fantasy safety remains in second in total fantasy points despite missing the past two games. James is more than just a safety. He lines up almost anywhere in the defense. He fits gaps in run defense, erases tight ends in man coverage, and rushes the passer. James isn’t the only safety with diverse deployment, but he is arguably the best at it.
Rookie Jalen Pitre leads all safeties in fantasy points through 15 weeks. The former Baylor linebacker was the Texans’ preferred choice to supplement run defense from the third level. After ten weeks, however, he and running mate Jonathan Owens effectively swapped roles. Pitre has played the tenth most snaps of any safety in the NFL, but he’s second in snaps versus the run. Pitre leads the league’s safeties in both tackles made and missed tackles. According to Pro Football Focus, 41 of Pitre’s 117 total tackles have come in run defense. Pitre and his Texans have spent a lot of time defending the run en route to their 1-12-1 record.
Ron Kopp Jr. on Twitter Houston rookie Safety Jalen Pitre was all over the place against Dallas. 2 PBUs and 10 tackles, including two 1v1 goal-line stops against ZekeFlying around, playing like the explosive play maker that made him an exciting prospect out of Baylor pic.twitter.com/ARgvhPDr48— Ron Kopp Jr. (@Ron_Kopp) December 16, 2022 Twitter
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Slot defender LJarius Sneed resumed the lead in fantasy points among all defensive backs after Derwin James’s injury. Sneed is the Chiefs' primary slot defender. His box scores have benefited from his defense playing two safeties back more often in 2022 versus 2021. Week 8’s Reading the Defense covered this evolution in NFL defenses wherein highly drafted players like Antoine Winfield and Kyle Hamilton are taking numerous snaps in the slot.
No Predictability in Safety
A minor panic ensued in the IDP community when the Panthers deployed Jeremy Chinn deep for 23 of his 31 snaps across two preseason games. If this usage were to carry into the regular season, the deep snaps would lead to fewer tackle opportunities and preclude opportunities to blitz.
Anthony Cover 1 on Twitter #Panthers safety Jeremy Chinn makes this play look routine & it’s notLined up as the post safety & closes from about 15 yards deep. He comes forward with purpose, burst, & a proper angle, and drops Duke Johnson in the open field. Gorgeous pic.twitter.com/KwZV8sSvBW— Anthony Cover 1 (@Pro__Ant) August 29, 2022 Twitter
Chinn’s deployment has varied from week to week. His production has varied with it only in part due to injury. He rebounded with 14 tackles in Week 15, playing only 5 snaps deep, 24 in the box, 36 in the slot, and 3 along the defensive line per PFF.
Chinn’s big Week 15 demonstrated not only the viability of fantasy production from the slot, discussed in Week 8’s column, but also the impact of week-to-week game-planning in the NFL. Defensive coordinators are learning they must increasingly tailor their personnel and game plans to their opponents each week.
Fantasy football’s fourth-ranked safety through 15 weeks, Julian Love of the Giants, exemplifies the uncertainty in both week-to-week and season-long deployment. Most IDP heads tabbed Love’s running mate, Xavier McKinney as the Giants’ safety to target in fantasy drafts. McKinney played all of 18 snaps through 2 preseason games. Love played 33. They made a single tackle between them, but McKinney rushed the passer once each game.
Billy M on Twitter Wink dives into his bag. Julian Love starts mugging the A gap, then transitions into single high. Dane Belton transitions from single high into the slot. Jihad Ward drops. Darnay Holmes and Xavier McKinney blitz off the edge. pic.twitter.com/VBUlpTJNnr— Billy M (@BillyM_91) September 21, 2022 Twitter
If the same logic applies to Love as to Chinn, no one would have reasonably predicted that Love would emerge as a volume tackler. While he has emerged as New York's preferred box safety, his utilization in the second level has been highly variable. The following chart depicts a roller coaster in his deployment and productivity week-to-week.
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