With a month of 2022 season data, touchdown and interception rate regression from 2021 and a sense of quarterbacks and offenses can come into focus. Reassessing through injuries and future data is paramount, but after the opening four weeks is a starting point.
First off, my historical tracking for touchdown and interception rates (and their ratios) are a little different than most site displays online. Touchdown rate is touchdowns per completion and interception rate is interceptions per incompletion. The regression data is very sticky over the years, plus the TD-INT Rate Ratio (which looks at TD Rate from above divided by INT Rate above) is a strong hierarchy of quarterback play in the NFL.
What is a Good TD-INT Rate Ratio?
The NFL average for qualifying quarterbacks dating back to 2005 is 1.13. Consider anything in the 1.00 to 1.15 zone 'NFL average' and generally 'good enough to hold a starting job without substantial job security risk. The "good but not great" zone ventures from 1.15 to 1.30(ish). Then up to 1.50 incorporates some of the best quarerbacks in the NFL. Finally, above 1.50 for their career are the cyborgs like Aaron Rodgers (ridiculous 2.56), Patrick Mahomes II (2.18), Tom Brady (1.84), and Russell Wilson (1.82) over that span. The rogue 'do not forget about me' name in that zone on a much smaller sample size is Gardner Minshew at 1.99 for his qualifying seasons. Do not be surprised if Minshew gets a future opportunity and earns more starting work due to his success (previously and going forward).
On the bad side of the metric is when a quarterback ventures below 1.00. The clock can begin ticking on their job security. Below 0.70 is highly concerning, even for rookies from a projection standpoint.
2021 Rookies
Trey Lance does not have a qualifying sample size yet but has the best ratio at a promising 1.37. That is based on around 100 passes between last and this year, so a major asterisk is placed on Lance.
The rest of the class is all on the bust path through their opening season and now a month of Year 2. That said, Trevor Lawrence is lone 'trending strongly in the right direction' option. After a 0.48 last season, Lawrence is boasting an impressive-for-anyone 2.09 ratio this season, higher than Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson notably. His career ratio is up to 0.68. If his 2022 play continues, he will easily be on the success track later in the season.
Davis Mills, Mac Jones, Zach Wilson, and Justin Fields (on various sample sizes) are all on a similar bust trajectory a month into Year 2 as they were exiting Year 1. Wilson has the best weapons around him of the bunch, but his 11.1% INT Rate this season is alarming in the early going.
Setting the Regression Table
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