IDP Upgrades: Week 16

Aaron Rudnicki's IDP Upgrades: Week 16 Aaron Rudnicki Published 12/20/2022

This article immediately highlights defensive players whose production was significantly better or worse than normally expected for the prior week of games. Note there is sometimes limited information available when this article is written, but I will try to give everyone an early look at players who are moving up or down in value among IDP circles. It isn’t easy to give waiver advice for IDPs since there is such a wide variety of lineups and scoring systems, but hopefully, the information provided can help inform your waiver, trade, and upcoming lineup decisions. I'm also going to try and group edge rushers together with the understanding that classification as a defensive end or linebacker will depend on your league setup/host. If you have any questions about specific players or situations, please email me or reach out via Twitter.

Email: rudnicki@footballguys.com
Twitter: @a_rudnicki

UPGRADES

DEFENSIVE LINEMEN/EDGE RUSHERS

DE Josh Sweat, PHI (5 solos, 1 asst, 2 sacks, 3 TFL, 2 QH on 75% of snaps)
The Eagles took advantage of a favorable matchup this week and collected six sacks of Josh Fields. Sweat has been their most consistent pass rusher of late and picked up two more sacks this week to give him five in his last three games and seven in his last six. He also saw a season-high workload this week with 75% of the snaps after averaging close to 50% since their Week 7 bye.

DE J.J. Watt, ARI (4 solos, 1 asst, 3 sacks, 3 TFL, 3 QH, 1 FF, 1 PD on 84% of snaps)
Watt looked more like his younger self this week with a huge three-sack outing against the Broncos. Watt is no longer the dominant player he once was but his 84% workload this week was a season-high and he’s now put up seven sacks over his last seven games.

DE DeMarcus Walker, TEN (4 solos, 1 asst, 2 sacks, 2 TFL, 2 QH on 59% of snaps)
Walker has flown under the radar in Tennessee, but he’s quietly been putting up some impressive numbers in the second half of the season. With two sacks against a tough matchup this week, he now has 6.5 sacks in his last eight games.

DE Romeo Okwara, DET (2 solos, 2 asst, 2 sacks, 2 TFL, 2 QH on 41% of snaps)
Okwara returned to the lineup last week following an Achilles injury last year. While little was probably expected of him given the injury, he came through with a pair of sacks and looks like he may be able to contribute as a situational pass rusher as the Lions make a push for the playoffs.

DL DeShawn Williams, DEN (2 solos, 3 asst, 2.5 sacks, 2 TFL, 4 QH on 62% of snaps)
Williams saw a heavier workload this week since the Broncos were without DreMont Jones and Jacob Martin. He took advantage and produced his second multi-sack outing in the past three weeks. The Rams matchup next week also looks pretty favorable.

EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux, NYG (9 solos, 3 asst, 1 sack, 3 TFL, 1 QH, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 TD on 79% of snaps)
This may have been a coming-out party for the fifth overall pick in this year’s draft. He made plays all over the field and led the Giants with 12 tackles while also adding a strip-sack that he recovered for a touchdown in a huge win over their division rivals.

EDGE Haason Reddick, PHI (3 solos, 1 asst, 2 sacks, 2 TFL, 2 QH on 75% of snaps)
Reddick may not have as much fantasy value this year due to getting a linebacker designation in some league host sites, but he remains highly productive as a pass rusher. With two more sacks this week, he now has 12 on the season and has recorded a sack in 10 of his last 12 games.

Already a subscriber?

Continue reading this content with a ELITE subscription.

An ELITE subscription is required to access content for IDP (individual defensive players) leagues. If this league is not a IDP (individual defensive players) league, you can edit your leagues here.

LINEBACKERS

LB Logan Wilson, CIN (9 solos, 6 asst, 1 sack, 2 QH on 100% of snaps)
This was his second huge game in a row, and Wilson now looks closer to the top-12 linebacker many expected him to be this year. Over his past two games, he has been credited with 23 solo tackles, 9 assists, and 1.5 sacks, and he could wind up a fantasy league MVP.

LB Troy Andersen, ATL (5 solos, 2 asst on 82% of snaps)
It took him some time, but Andersen appears to have overtaken Mykal Walker for one of the starting inside linebacker jobs in Atlanta. He played 82% of the snaps this week, and the athletic rookie is likely auditioning for a starting job next season if he can play well over the last few weeks.

LB Drue Tranquill, LAC (7 solos, 3 asst, 1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 QH, 1 FF on 100% of snaps)
Tranquill continues to produce like a top-10 fantasy linebacker this year. He has a chance to hit 100 solo tackles, but his four sacks plus an interception have helped separate him from some similar players.

LB Christian Harris, HOU (7 solos, 7 asst, 3 TFL, 1 QH on 100% of snaps)
Both Texans inside linebackers had huge games this week due in large part to the matchup, as the Chiefs offense generated 71 tackle opportunities. It is not surprising the worst team in the league will see a high number of defensive snaps each week and Christian Kirksey is already established, but it was good to see the rookie Harris finally take advantage as he came into the game with just five solos and eight assists over the past three games.

LB Nicholas Morrow, CHI (9 solos, 2 asst, 1 TFL on 100% of snaps)
Morrow’s production hasn’t shown the same improvement following the trade of Roquan Smith due to the emergence of Jack Sanborn. Sanborn only played 41% of the snaps this week, however, so it’s probably not a coincidence that Morrow had his best game of the year with 11 tackles on 73 snaps.

DEFENSIVE BACKS

S Rayshawn Jenkins, JAX (9 solos, 9 asst, 2 INT, 2 PD, 1 TD on 99% of snaps)
The Cowboys have been a very favorable matchup for opposing safeties this year, and that trend certainly continued on Sunday as Jenkins blew up for the game of the week. On top of his incredible 18 tackles on 74 snaps, he also added two interceptions and a game-winning touchdown in overtime.

S Jeremy Chinn, CAR (11 solos, 3 asst, 1 PD on 100% of snaps)
Chinn was coming off two quiet games that may have had some questioning his status as an elite fantasy safety, but he put those concerns to rest this week. He led the Panthers with 14 combined tackles on 68 snaps and should remain a high-end starter going forward.

S Kyle Hamilton, BAL (6 solos, 1 asst, 1 sack, 2 TFL, 1 QH, 1 PD on 58% of snaps)
Hamilton remains stuck in a part-time role behind Chuck Clark at strong safety, but you can glimpse his untapped potential from the box scores lately. In a game where he ranked 11th on the Ravens with 38 snaps this week, he was still heavily involved while playing close to the line of scrimmage and finished second on the team with seven tackles while also adding a sack.

CB Tremon Smith, HOU (7 solos, 4 asst, 1 TFL, 1 FF, 1 PD on 100% of snaps)
Smith took over for an injured Steven Nelson last week and picked off two passes. He followed that up with another strong fantasy showing this week as he collected 11 tackles plus a forced fumble and pass deflection. Since Derrick Stingley was recently placed on IR, it looks like Smith should remain in the lineup.

CB DaRon Bland, DAL (4 solos, 2 asst, 1 INT, 2 PD on 93% of snaps)
Bland has become a huge part of the Cowboys defense over the past four weeks, especially after they lost starter Anthony Brown to an injury in week 13. He added another interception this week and now has 11 solos, 9 assists, with 3 interceptions over his past three games, and has a great matchup looming against the Eagles.

DOWNGRADES

DEFENSIVE LINEMEN/EDGE RUSHERS

DE Sam Hubbard, CIN (1 asst, 1 QH on 36% of snaps)
Hubbard has put together another strong season for the Bengals this year but left the game early with a calf injury that’s expected to keep him out for several weeks. Cameron Sample and Joseph Ossai both saw a large jump in playing time this week as the Bengals were missing both starters.

DE A.J. Epenesa, BUF (0 tackles on 36% of snaps)
Epenesa came into this game playing well but was a non-factor and saw his playing time drop this week as he appeared to suffer an elbow injury. He tried to play through it, but it might limit his effectiveness.

EDGE Jason Pierre-Paul, BAL (0 tackles on 59% of snaps)
Pierre-Paul has been able to generate some pressure at times this year, but he’s not been nearly as productive as he was in Tampa Bay during recent years. In 10 games played with a significant workload, he only has 14 solo tackles and a pair of sacks.

EDGE Brandon Graham, PHI (0 tackles on 27% of snaps)
It was disappointing to see Graham come up empty in a game where the Eagles defense generated six sacks. Was also not a great sign for his value going forward to see him with just 27% of the snaps coming off a three-sack effort last week.

LINEBACKERS

LB Jack Sanborn, CHI (5 solos on 41% of snaps)
Sanborn has been a revelation at inside linebacker for the Bears, but he left the game early with an ankle injury. That makes him a risky option next week against the Bills, even if he’s deemed healthy enough to play. Joe Thomas filled in for him and picked up 6 tackles with a sack on 59% of the snaps so could be a short-term fill-in if needed.

LB Leighton Vander Esch, DAL (0 tackles on 7% of snaps)
Vander Esch has had trouble staying healthy earlier in his career, but he had yet to miss any time this year and was coming off a 14-tackle game against the Texans a week ago. Unfortunately, he lasted just five snaps before suffering a neck injury that will keep him out for at least a week.

LB Mykal Walker, ATL (3 asst on 24% of snaps)
Walker had been ceding snaps to the rookie Troy Andersen of late, but this week, they seemed to flip spots. Andersen now appears to be the starter, with Walker rotating in during some packages.

DEFENSIVE BACKS

S DeShon Elliott, DET (5 solos, 1 asst, 1 TFL on 62% of snaps)
Elliott led the Lions in tackles this week and has been one of their most productive players all season, but he suffered a shoulder injury and did not return. Monitor his status for next week’s matchup against Carolina, but it may be worth looking elsewhere.

S Minkah Fitzpatrick, PIT (1 asst, 1 PD on 100% of snaps)
This was a bad matchup overall, as the Panthers offense only generated 34 tackle opportunities, but it was still disappointing to see an elite safety finish with just one assisted tackle in the game. He just wasn’t around the ball much this week, which is unusual and likely an outlier.

CB Cam Taylor-Britt, CIN (2 solos, 1 asst on 78% of snaps)
This looked like a strong matchup for the rookie corner who has been playing well of late, but he left early with a shoulder injury.

CB C.J. Henderson, CAR (0 tackles on 6% of snaps)
Henderson recently had a 10 solo game and has flashed some moments of potential, but he left the game early this week with an ankle injury and did not return.

Photos provided by Imagn Images

More by Aaron Rudnicki

 

IDP Matchups and Stat Trends: Final

Aaron Rudnicki

An excel spreadsheet and guide to help quickly break down IDP matchups for the week

01/10/25 Read More
 

IDP Matchups and Stat Trends: Week 18

Aaron Rudnicki

An excel spreadsheet and guide to help quickly break down IDP matchups for the week

01/03/25 Read More
 

IDP Matchups and Stat Trends: Week 17

Aaron Rudnicki

An excel spreadsheet and guide to help quickly break down IDP matchups for the week

12/25/24 Read More
 

IDP Matchups and Stat Trends: Week 16

Aaron Rudnicki

An excel spreadsheet and guide to help quickly break down IDP matchups for the week

12/19/24 Read More
 

IDP Matchups and Stat Trends: Week 15

Aaron Rudnicki

An excel spreadsheet and guide to help quickly break down IDP matchups for the week

12/12/24 Read More
 

IDP Matchups and Stat Trends: Week 14

Aaron Rudnicki

An excel spreadsheet and guide to help quickly break down IDP matchups for the week

12/05/24 Read More