If ever there were a time to read the trends and jump on players before others, it would be this week. Week 16 and, in most standard leagues, the semifinals. Many things have happened to get you to this point, but what would you do differently? Are you risk-averse in this spot or lunging at an opportunity for any advantage you can take? Is the risk worth the potential payoff? Who do you trust? Footballguys is who you trust! Here it is, your semifinal week stock market extravaganza! Lock these guys in (or out, depending on who) of your lineup!
High Dollar Stocks Trending Up
LB Eric Kendricks: We must start with the ever-so-controversial Kendricks. A favorite of this article early for the miserable production we got, he has since been an absolute league winner and needs to continue being recognized as such. He has put together an end-of-the-year run IDP managers dream of. Since Week 12, he has compiled 42 tackles and a sack. These are absolutely week-winning numbers for a player that admittedly started off on the hate list. Trends change, as should opinion, and if you didn’t panic, Kendricks is paying major dividends to your team.
LB Foye Oluokun: The secret has long been out on Oluokun, but that doesn’t mean we should ignore the insane numbers we are witnessing. While the secondary linebacker position seems as volatile as ever, Oluokun has been as consistent and productive as ever. Since his bye week in Week 11, he has produced four of his five highest point totals of the year, just in time for the fantasy playoffs! All hail Foye! Your current IDP1.
DE Christian Wilkins: Another player who made managers wait a bit longer for the payoff has been Wilkins. Wilkins had three weeks of double-digit points total at Week 12. Since then, he has had three straight double digits, all his highest-scoring weeks of the year. This is monumental for Wilkins, who was likely drafted with value that never seemed to pay off. Well, if you were fortunate and savvy enough to wait, he’s on the ride of the year and has favorable matchups to finish against the Packers, Patriots, and Jets.
S Jalen Pitre: Let’s be honest, he likely wins no awards this season being a rookie on the Houston Texans, but Pitre has had a monster first year and deserves defensive rookie of the year consideration. On the season, he has 117 tackles, three interceptions, and six defended passes. So maybe no NFL awards, but it is hard to argue any defender in fantasy is having a better rookie season. He has had four straight games of 12+ points and needs to be starting anywhere he is rostered.
LB Zaire Franklin: The Colts had to have someone step up in the absence of Shaquille Leonard this season, and Franklin more than answered that call. There is no format where he shouldn’t be a starter and has ascended into a dynasty long-term asset as well. This season he had just two total games of less than 10 points and is averaging nearly 13 points per game in standard scoring leagues. He’s no longer a backup; he could be the new star if Leonard cannot return to his peak performance next year.
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High Dollar Stocks Trending Down
LB DeVondre Campbell: It’s easy to use name recognition and past performance to sway your opinions. Campbell has been a very good player for a very long time, but unfortunately, that time is up. Blame it on age, injury, new linebackers, etc., but something is off with Campbell. He is absolutely too risky just to plug and play when healthy. He had a great return game in Week 13, then had a bye, which gave managers a false sense of well-rested and explosive, all to fall flat on Monday night with four total tackles. We need to put to rest the Campbell starter talk.
DE Cameron Jordan: Another example of a name being bigger than the production is that of Cam Jordan. Jordan is now an aging asset who is not producing and needs to be dropped off your roster. Yes, he is still a no-doubt Hall of Famer, but the likelihood he turns this end of the season into a prime Jordan highlight reel is nonexistent. It is not easy to write negatively about a player with over 110 sacks to his name, but these are the money weeks, and Jordan has been broke!
S Minkah Fitzpatrick: Oh, what could have been? Fitzpatrick started the season off with a 14-tackle performance that also included a pick-six, which had this market on fire! He then was injured in Week 5 and, since then, hasn’t been consistent enough to be a starter for you. Maybe it is the injury, or maybe the Steelers as a whole have just taken a step back this year. Who knows? What we do know is there are better safeties that should be playing in front of Fitzpatrick in your playoff run. Rip the bandaid off!
LB Mykal Walker: Walker has had, no doubt, the best season of his young and ascending career. To this point, he has had nothing but good things to be written and talked about, but this last stretch of important playoff games has been abysmal if you have needed him to carry you. I think it is too early to panic about taking him out of lineups, but managers need to be wary - a random three-assist performance in playoff time from your stud is a game-loser. Let’s hope Walker returns to form this week in the fantasy semi-finals.
DE Demarcus Lawrence: If there was one player that this article can tout as never-a-doubt right about, it was Lawrence. Many a time, we warned managers that Lawrence, while still capable of producing, was reaching the point of his career where it will drop off. Unfortunately for his managers, it seems to have happened in a big way. He has not had a double-digit scoring performance since Week 10 and has not even become a sack-dependent player. Hopefully, you moved him pre-deadline, as we warned.
Middle of the Pack Trending Up
S Rayshawn Jenkins: If you haven’t already heard or watched, Jenkins may have had the greatest IDP fantasy performance of all-time last week - 18 tackles, two interceptions, and a touchdown to seal a game against the Cowboys. Of course, we don’t expect a performance like this anytime soon, but he has been a productive player this season with close to 100 tackles and eleven defended passes. With a blow-up ability like this, if you have a need, he’s worth the spot on your roster.
DE Chandler Jones: Folks, it happened again; the penny stock had an Amazon-level performance the week after we mentioned the possibility. By now, you’ve surely heard that the Patriots had a bumbling play to lose the game, but it was to the benefit of Chandler Jones, who scored the game-winning touchdown! Pair that with two defended passes and two tackles, and you had yourself a week-winning player. He’s now had three straight games of 15+ points.
S Kyle Dugger: To start the season, Dugger was barely even rosterable, but something changed during the bye week in Week 10. Since then, he has not scored below 10.5 points, and his last two have been 15+. He is the type of player who can do a little bit of everything on the stat sheet. He needs to be placed in lineups where he is rostered and if he’s on waivers, especially in dynasty, needs to be grabbed immediately. The return of Dugger is 100% real.
LB Christian Kirksey: Kirksey has quietly amassed a very solid season as the go-to linebacker in Houston. He normally is the type of player where you know you’re getting solid production, but not over the top. For three of the last four weeks, however, he has been a stud! With 35 tackles in the last four weeks with two sacks, he’s a worthy starter in all formats and will produce for you in these money weeks. As a dynasty asset, he is beginning to age into questionable long-term territory, but in the immediate short term, he’s good to go!
LB Ja’Whuan Bentley: More of a long-term hold than a short-term starter, Bentley has proven in some starts as a credible starting linebacker in fantasy. Last week was another example of this, with ten tackles and a sack to his name. There are better starters to have on your championship run, but if you are injury-riddled and need a dart throw, Bentley isn’t a bad option for that criteria. At 26 years old though, he could just now be ascending into his long-term production years. Keep him on your dynasty roster if you can.
Penny Stocks with a Chance
DE J.J. Watt: Hard to believe we have J.J. Watt as a penny stock, but the facts are there. He isn’t what he once was, but there was definitely a mega moment this past week. In what has to be one of the most surprising (and frankly coolest) moments of the year, Watt compiled five tackles and three sacks and had us all feeling like it was 2014 again. Now, this likely doesn’t happen again, but Watt has had an okay year in the sack department and now finds himself at 9.5 on the season. If you need a flyer at the end position, why not Watt?
DE Deshawn Williams: A relatively unknown player in the league, Williams may be worth a second look if you are scraping the bottom of the waiver wire. He hasn’t really had any notable stats in his NFL career, but in two of his last three games, he has had at least two sacks. In his last three weeks, he’s had 10 tackles and 4.5 sacks. It’s probably more of a deeper league play than a plug-and-play, but if you’re deep-sea fishing, here’s one guy who may be able to help you get that title.
S Taylor Rapp: To start the year, Rapp felt as though he was going to lose his job, but has anyone been paying attention to his game stats over the past four weeks? He has 26 tackles and 5 defended passes and has some favorable quarterback matchups down the stretch that could help those defended pass numbers even more. He’s probably a guy whose name you see but don’t trust to start. It’s time to look deeper, and if you need a hail mary at the position, he is definitely not going to leave you hanging.
S Tyrann Mathieu: Overall, Mathieu has not had what should be considered a bad year, but unfortunately for him, he plays a position that has lots of players that score lots of points. If you need a playmaker that could potentially make a week-winning play, Mathieu fits that build. He’s a 5-6 tackle game player with pop plays like interceptions or sacks, so the potential is always there. He also plays the Browns and Eagles over the last two weeks, and both likely have struggling quarterbacks going into the matchup. Why not honeybadger?
DT Javon Hargrave: At one point, Hargrave was having the stretch of a lifetime. He had 28 tackles and six sacks in a three-game span. He then came crashing back to reality when the Eagles signed more interior linemen. Well, last week, we got another one of those boom games. Three tackles and two sacks put Hargrave over ten sacks on the year. A guy who has four games where he has had multiple sacks is a penny stock that is worth starting if you need an interior lineman.
There it is, the semi-final week stock market. These guys can and will impact your team, but it is up to you, as always, to make the crucial decisions when it matters most. Think long, think wrong! Follow me on Twitter @steakspeare and follow @footballguys for all your fantasy football needs!