IDP Matchups and Stat Trends - Week 14

The Footballguys IDP Matchup Spreadsheet is used to track trends around the league to help with evaluating IDP matchups. I’ll use this article to call out some interesting numbers in the data each week.

You can find the Microsoft Excel tool HERE

SCHEDULE TAB

I’ve added in a new Schedule tab this year to try and quickly identify favorable matchups each week. I pulled in some key metrics for the defense as well as the offense they are facing this week.

When I look at matchups for this week, these are the matchups that look MOST FAVORABLE from a tackling perspective (with some notes if the matchup is particularly unfavorable for run vs pass):

• NY GIANTS (vs Philadelphia) – Eagles generating 55 tackle opps/game (32 rush attempts)
• NEW ENGLAND (vs Arizona) – Cardinals generating 55 tackle opps/game (26 pass completions)
• CINCINNATI (vs Cleveland) – Browns generating 54 tackle opps/game (32 rush attempts)
• PHILADELPHIA (vs NY Giants) – Giants generating 54 tackle opps/game (31 rush attempts)
• CLEVELAND (vs Cincinnati) – Bengals generating 53 tackle opps/game (26 pass completions)
• MIAMI (vs LA Chargers) – Chargers generating 52 tackle opps/game (28 pass completions)

In contrast, these matchups look LEAST FAVORABLE from a tackling perspective (with some notes if the matchup is particularly unfavorable for run vs pass):

• SEATTLE (vs Carolina) – Panthers generating 44 tackle opps/game (16 pass completions)
• DALLAS (vs Houston) – Texans generating 45 tackle opps/game (21 rush attempts)
• JACKSONVILLE (vs Tennessee) – Titans generating 46 tackle opps/game (16 pass completions)
• LA CHARGERS (vs Miami) – Dolphins generating 47 tackle opps/game (21 rush attempts)
• BUFFALO (vs NY Jets) – Jets generating 48 tackle opps/game (21 pass completions)

You may also want some help picking out matchups for pass rushers. These are some that look MOST FAVORABLE to me from a pass-rush perspective:

• LAS VEGAS (vs LA Rams) – Rams allow 3.5 sacks/game
• KANSAS CITY (vs Denver) – Broncos allow 3.2 sacks/game
• PHILADEPHIA (vs NY Giants) – Giants allow 3.1 sacks/game
• CLEVELAND (vs Cincinnati) – Bengals allow 3.0 sacks/game
• DALLAS (vs Houston) – Texans allow 2.8 sacks/game

In contrast, here are some matchups that look LEAST FAVORABLE from a pass-rush perspective:

• HOUSTON (vs Dallas) – Cowboys allow 1.3 sacks/game
• SAN FRANCISCO (vs Tampa Bay) – Buccaneers allow 1.5 sacks/game
• MINNESOTA (vs Detroit) – Lions allow 1.6 sacks/game
• DENVER (vs Kansas City) – Chiefs allow 1.6 sacks/game

STAT CREW GRADES

In week 13, overall tackles vs opportunities were up and two games in particular stood out:

In Houston, the Browns and Texans combined for 90 tackle opportunities with 57 rush attempts minus kneeldowns. There were 67 solos and 62 assists awarded in the game for 129 combined tackles on just 90 tackle opportunities. That ratio of 1.43 is the highest ratio we’ve seen in any game this year.

We also saw the second-highest ratio of the year this week in a game between the Steelers and Falcons in Atlanta. Both teams combined for 64 rush attempts and 94 tackle opportunities in the game and there were 62 solos and 68 assists awarded (130/94 = 1.38). Based on both games having run-heavy scripts, you can see how running plays tend to contribute to higher assist ratios.

There are some crews at the top where you can likely expect more tackles to be awarded on average for each opportunity. These are stadiums which you may want to focus on with some of your IDP matchups as they will tend to inflate the number of IDPs who are involved in each play.

Home STADIUMS with MOST GENEROUS (tackle per opportunity) stat crews this week include:

• PITTSBURGH (vs Baltimore) – 1.28 tackles/opp
• TENNESSEE (vs Jacksonville) – 1.27 tackles/opp
• DENVER (vs Kansas City) – 1.27 tackles/opp
• NY GIANTS (vs Philadelphia) – 1.25 tackles/opp

Home STADIUMS with LEAST GENEROUS (tackles per opportunity) stat crews this week include:

• ARIZONA (vs New England) – 1.15 tackles/opp
• DALLAS (vs Houston) – 1.15 tackles/opp
• BUFFALO (vs NY Jets) – 1.18 tackles/opp

Some leagues may place a premium on SOLO TACKLES and award more points for them than two assisted tackles. In that case, you’d want to focus on matchups played in STADIUMS that award a high percentage of solo tackles. This week that would include:

• LA CHARGERS (vs Miami) – 87% solos
• ARIZONA (vs New England) – 83% solos
• TENNESSEE (vs Jacksonville) – 83% solos
• BUFFALO (vs NY Jets) – 82% solos
• SEATTLE (vs Carolina) – 81% solos

In other cases, you may not want to differentiate between a solo or an assist and want to just focus on total tackles. STADIUMS this week that tend to award the highest percentage of ASSISTS per opportunity are:

• PITTSBURGH (vs Baltimore) – 54% assists
• DENVER (vs Kansas City) – 51% assists
• LA RAMS (vs Las Vegas) – 47% assists

Hopefully this helps give you some useful information for creating your lineups this week. Please reach out with any questions or feedback.

Email: rudnicki@footballguys.com
Twitter: @a_rudnicki