IDP Matchups and Stat Trends - Week 13

The Footballguys IDP Matchup Spreadsheet is used to track trends around the league to help with evaluating IDP matchups. I’ll use this article to call out some interesting numbers in the data each week.

You can find the Microsoft Excel tool HERE

SCHEDULE TAB

I’ve added in a new Schedule tab this year to try and quickly identify favorable matchups each week. I pulled in some key metrics for the defense as well as the offense they are facing this week.

When I look at matchups for this week, these are the matchups that look MOST FAVORABLE from a tackling perspective (with some notes if the matchup is particularly unfavorable for run vs pass):

• TENNESSEE (vs Philadelphia) – Eagles generating 55 tackle opps/game (33 rush attempts)
• HOUSTON (vs Cleveland) – Browns generating 55 tackle opps/game (31 rush attempts)
• WASHINGTON (vs NY Giants) – Giants generating 53 tackle opps/game (32 rush attempts)
• DALLAS (vs Indianapolis) – Colts generating 53 tackle opps/game (25 pass completions)
• KANSAS CITY (vs Cincinnati) – Bengals generating 52 tackle opps/game (26 pass completions)
• ATLANTA (vs Pittsburgh) – Steelers generating 52 tackle opps/game
• LAS VEGAS Raiders (vs LA Chargers) – Chargers generating 52 tackle opps/game (28 pass completions)

In contrast, these matchups look LEAST FAVORABLE from a tackling perspective (with some notes if the matchup is particularly unfavorable for run vs pass):

• CLEVELAND (vs Houston) – Texans generating 45 tackle opps/game (21 rush attempts)
• NY GIANTS (vs Washington) – Commanders generating 46 tackle opps/game (21 pass completions)
• PHILADELPHIA (vs Tennessee) – Titans generating 46 tackle opps/game (16 pass completions)
• MINNESOTA (vs NY Jets) – Jets generating 47 tackle opps/game (20 pass completions)
• PITTSBURGH (vs Atlanta) – Falcons generating 48 tackle opps/game (14 pass completions)
• SEATTLE (vs LA Rams) – Rams generating 48 tackle opps/game (22 rush attempts)
• TAMPA BAY (vs New Orleans) – Saints generating 48 tackle opps/game

You may also want some help picking out matchups for pass rushers. These are some that look MOST FAVORABLE to me from a pass-rush perspective:

• DALLAS (vs Indianapolis) – Colts allow 3.6 sacks/game
• GREEN BAY (vs Chicago) – Bears allow 3.5 sacks/game
• SEATTLE (vs LA Rams) – Rams allow 3.5 sacks/game
• BALTIMORE (vs Denver) – Broncos allow 3.3 sacks/game
• KANSAS CITY (vs Cincinnati) – Bengals allow 3.2 sacks/game (only 5 in last 3 games)
• WASHINGTON (vs NY Giants) – Giants allow 3.0 sacks/game
• CLEVELAND (vs Houston) – Texans allow 3.0 sacks/game (14 in last 3 games)

In contrast, here are some matchups that look LEAST FAVORABLE from a pass-rush perspective:

• NY GIANTS (vs Dallas) – Cowboys allow 1.3 sacks/game (5 in last 7 games)
• NEW ORLEANS (vs Tampa Bay) – Buccaneers allow 1.5 sacks/game
• CINCINNATI (vs Kansas City) – Chiefs allow 1.5 sacks/game (1 in last 3 games)
• JACKSONVILLE (vs Detroit) –Lions allow 1.5 sacks/game (5 in last 5 games)
• MIAMI (vs San Francisco) – 49ers allow 1.7 sacks/game (2 in last 3 games)
• DETROIT (vs Jacksonville) – Jaguars allow 1.9 sacks/game
• CHICAGO (vs Green Bay) – Packers allow 2.0 sacks/game

STAT CREW GRADES

Most of the games in week 12 were aligned with recent trends, but the game in Carolina stood out from the rest. On the season, the Panthers crew have awarded a solo tackle on 72% of the tackle opportunities for either team, which ranks 32nd. In week 12, however, that number was at 82.5% which would rank in the top-5. The pattern was also evident in their assist ratio as their overall ratio of assists to tackle opportunities ranks 3rd at 50.6% but they were at 38% this week.

In a win over the Broncos, the Panthers generated 45 rush attempts while the Broncos offense only generated 41 tackle opportunities overall. In 97 combined tackle opportunities, the crew handed out 80 solo tackles and 37 assists. Compare that against week 10, in the same stadium in a win over the Falcons, where the Panthers generated a very similar 47 rush attempts compared to 49 tackle opportunities for their opponent. Out of 107 tackle opportunities that game, there were only 69 solo tackles (65%) awarded and 68 assists (64%).

There are some crews at the top where you can likely expect more tackles to be awarded on average for each opportunity. These are stadiums which you may want to focus on with some of your IDP matchups as they will tend to inflate the number of IDPs who are involved in each play.

Home STADIUMS with MOST GENEROUS (tackle per opportunity) stat crews this week include:

• LA Rams (vs Seattle) – 1.26 tackles/opp
• NY Giants (vs Washington) – 1.25 tackles/opp
• San Francisco (vs Miami) – 1.24 tackles/opp

Home STADIUMS with LEAST GENEROUS (tackles per opportunity) stat crews this week include:

• Dallas (vs Indianapolis) – 1.15 tackles/opp
• Tampa Bay (vs New Orleans) – 1.16 tackles/opp
• Minnesota (vs NY Jets) – 1.17 tackles/opp
• Baltimore (vs Denver) – 1.17 tackles/opp
• Chicago (vs Green Bay) – 1.18 tackles/opp

Some leagues may place a premium on SOLO TACKLES and award more points for them than two assisted tackles. In that case, you’d want to focus on matchups played in STADIUMS that award a high percentage of solo tackles. This week that would include:

• Minnesota (vs NY Jets) – 84% solos
• Chicago (vs Green Bay) – 82% solos
• NY Giants (vs Washington) – 81% solos
• Houston (vs Cleveland) – 81% solos

In other cases, you may not want to differentiate between a solo or an assist and want to just focus on total tackles. STADIUMS this week that tend to award the highest percentage of ASSISTS per opportunity are:

• LA Rams (vs Seattle) – 49% assists
• Philadelphia (vs Tennessee) – 47% assists
• Atlanta (vs Pittsburgh) – 46% assists

Hopefully this helps give you some useful information for creating your lineups this week. Please reach out with any questions or feedback.

Email: rudnicki@footballguys.com
Twitter: @a_rudnicki