The Footballguys IDP Matchup Spreadsheet is used to track trends around the league to help with evaluating IDP matchups. I’ll use this article to call out some interesting numbers in the data each week.
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SCHEDULE TAB
I’ve added in a new Schedule tab this year to try and quickly identify favorable matchups each week. I pulled in some key metrics for the defense as well as the offense they are facing this week.
When I look at matchups for this week, these are the matchups that look MOST FAVORABLE from a tackling perspective (with some notes if the matchup is particularly unfavorable for run vs pass):
- DETROIT (vs NY Giants) – Giants generating 54 tackle opps/game (33 rush attempts)
- INDIANAPOLIS (vs Philadelphia) – Eagles generating 54 tackle opps/game (32 rush attempts)
- ATLANTA (vs Chicago) – Falcons allowing 54 tackle opps/game (Bears avg 35 rush attempts)
- DALLAS (vs Minnesota) – Cowboys allowing 54 tackle opps/game (28 rush attempts)
- CAROLINA (vs Baltimore) – Panthers allowing 54 tackle opps/game (31 rush attempts)
In contrast, these matchups look LEAST FAVORABLE from a tackling perspective (with some notes if the matchup is particularly unfavorable for run vs pass):
- BALTIMORE (vs Carolina) – Panthers generating 43 tackle opps/game (16 pass completions)
- GREEN BAY (vs Tennessee) – Packers generating 46 tackle opps/game (14 pass completions)
- WASHINGTON (vs Houston) – Texans generating 46 tackle opps/game (23 rush attempts)
- DENVER (vs Las Vegas) – Raiders generating 46 tackle opps/game (21 rush attempts)
- NY GIANTS (vs Detroit) – Giants allowing 46 tackle opps/game (19 pass completions)
- NEW ENGLAND (vs NY Jets) – Jets generating 47 tackle opps/game (21 pass completions)
You may also want some help picking out matchups for pass rushers. These are some that look MOST FAVORABLE to me from a pass-rush perspective:
- PHILADELPHIA (vs Indianapolis) – Colts allow 3.6 sacks/game
- ATLANTA (vs Chicago) – Bears allow 3.6 sacks/game
- PITTSBURGH (vs Cincinnati) – Bengals allow 3.6 sacks/game
- NEW ORLEANS (vs LA Rams) – Rams allow 3.4 sacks/game
- LAS VEGAS (vs Denver) – Broncos allow 3.3 sacks/game
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In contrast, here are some matchups that look LEAST FAVORABLE from a pass-rush perspective:
- KANSAS CITY (vs LA Chargers) – Chargers allow 1.4 sacks/game
- MINNESOTA (vs Dallas) – Cowboys allow 1.6 sacks/game
- NY GIANTS (vs Detroit) – Lions allow 1.7 sacks/game
- LA CHARGERS (vs Kansas City) – Chiefs allow 1.8 sacks/game
- ARIZONA (vs San Francisco) – 49ers allow 2.0 sacks/game
STAT CREW GRADES
In week 10, most games followed their prior trends but the game in San Francisco stood out a little. The home crew awarded 58 assists on 100 tackle opportunities for an AVO of 58.0%, while their highest rate across 3 prior home games was only 41.8% in week 7.
Looking across the leagues, some trends are becoming more apparent now. For example, Buffalo ranked 6th overall last year with a TVO (Tackles vs Opportunity) rate of 1.23 but are ranked 30th this year with a rate of 1.16. Their solo rate has not changed much (82.8% in 2021 vs 83.6% in 2022) but they have seen a large drop in their assist ratio (40.4% in 2021 vs 32.6% in 2022).
One of the other changes that stands out is in Indianapolis. Last year, they ranked first in the league with a solo ratio of 86%, but this year they are only awarding a solo tackle on 76.6% (25th) of opportunities. That has been offset by a similar increase in assists where their ratio grew from 35.3% (30th) last year to 48.1% (5th) now.
There are some crews at the top where you can likely expect more tackles to be awarded on average for each opportunity. These are stadiums which you may want to focus on with some of your IDP matchups as they will tend to inflate the number of IDPs who are involved in each play.
Home STADIUMS with MOST GENEROUS (tackle per opportunity) stat crews this week include:
- Denver (vs Las Vegas) – 1.29 tackles/opp
- Pittsburgh (vs Cincinnati) – 1.28 tackles/opp
- NY Giants (vs Detroit) – 1.27 tackles/opp
- Indianapolis (vs Philadelphia) – 1.25 tackles/opp
- Atlanta (vs Chicago) – 1.24 tackles/opp
Home STADIUMS with LEAST GENEROUS (tackles per opportunity) stat crews this week include:
- Arizona (vs San Francisco) – 1.15 tackles/opp
- Buffalo (vs Cleveland) – 1.16 tackles/opp
- Baltimore (vs Carolina) – 1.17 tackles/opp
- Minnesota (vs Dallas) – 1.18 tackles/opp
Some leagues may place a premium on SOLO TACKLES and award more points for them than two assisted tackles. In that case, you’d want to focus on matchups played in STADIUMS that award a high percentage of solo tackles. This week that would include:
- LA Chargers (vs Kansas City) – 88% solos
- Buffalo (vs Cleveland) – 84% solos
- Minnesota (vs Dallas) – 84% solos
- Arizona (vs San Francisco) – 82% solos
In other cases, you may not want to differentiate between a solo or an assist and want to just focus on total tackles. STADIUMS this week that tend to award the highest percentage of ASSISTS per opportunity are:
- Pittsburgh (vs Cincinnati) – 54% assists
- Denver (vs Las Vegas) – 53% assists
- Indianapolis (vs Philadelphia) – 48% assists
- Atlanta (vs Chicago) – 47% assists
Hopefully this helps give you some useful information for creating your lineups this week. Please reach out with any questions or feedback.
Email: rudnicki@footballguys.com
Twitter: @a_rudnicki