IDP Matchups and Stat Trends - Week 09

The Footballguys IDP Matchup Spreadsheet is used to track trends around the league to help with evaluating IDP matchups. I’ll use this article to call out some interesting numbers in the data each week.

You can find the Microsoft Excel tool HERE

SCHEDULE TAB

I’ve added in a new Schedule tab this year to try and quickly identify favorable matchups each week. I pulled in some key metrics for the defense as well as the offense they are facing this week.

When I look at matchups for this week, these are the matchups that look MOST FAVORABLE from a tackling perspective (with some notes if the matchup is particularly unfavorable for run vs pass):

• HOUSTON (vs Philadelphia) – Eagles generating 57 tackle opps/game (34 rush attempts)
• SEATTLE (vs Arizona) – Cardinals generating 56 tackle opps/game (27 pass completions)
• NEW ENGLAND (vs Indianapolis) – Colts generating 54 tackle opps/game (28 pass completions)
• ATLANTA (vs LA Chargers) – Chargers generating 53 tackle opps/game (29 pass completions)
• BALTIMORE (vs New Orleans) – Saints generating 52 tackle opps/game (27 rush attempts)
• CAROLINA (vs Cincinnati) – Bengals averaging 52 tackle opps/game (27 pass completions)
• MIAMI (vs Chicago) – Bears averaging 51 tackle opps/game (35 rush attempts)

In contrast, these matchups look LEAST FAVORABLE from a tackling perspective (with some notes if the matchup is particularly unfavorable for run vs pass):

• CINCINNATI (vs Carolina) – Panthers generating 43 tackle opps/game (17 pass completions)
• PHILADELPHIA (vs Houston) – Texans generating 45 tackle opps/game
• JACKSONVILLE (vs Las Vegas) – Raiders generating 46 tackle opps/game (21 rush attempts)
• BUFFALO (vs NY Jets) – Jets generating 47 tackle opps/game
• KANSAS CITY (vs Tennessee) – Titans generating 47 tackle opps/game (15 pass completions)
• MINNESOTA (vs Washington) – Commanders generating 47 tackle opps/game
• LA RAMS (vs Tampa Bay) – Buccaneers generating 49 tackle opps/game (19 rush attempts)

You may also want some help picking out matchups for pass rushers. These are some that look MOST FAVORABLE to me from a pass-rush perspective:

• MIAMI (vs Chicago) – Bears allow 3.9 sacks/game and 26% pressure rate on just 20 attempts/game
• CAROLINA (vs Cincinnati) – Bengals allow 3.8 sacks/game and 38 pass attempts/game
• TAMPA BAY (vs LA Rams) – Rams allow 3.4 sacks/game and 37 pass attempts/game
• NEW ENGLAND (vs Indianapolis) – Colts allow 3.3 sacks/game and 20% pressure rate
• MINNESOTA (vs Washington) – Commanders allow 3.3 sacks/game and 22% pressure rate

On the flip side, here are some matchups that look LEAST FAVORABLE from a pass-rush perspective:

• ATLANTA (vs LA Chargers) – Chargers allow 1.4 sacks/game and 12% pressure rate
• LAS VEGAS (vs Jacksonville) – Jaguars allow 1.5 sacks/game and 9% pressure rate
• LA RAMS (vs Tampa Bay) – Buccaneers allow 1.6 sacks/game and 10% pressure rate
• NY JETS (vs Buffalo) –Bills allow 1.7 sacks/game and 10% pressure rate
• TENNESSEE (vs Kansas City) – Chiefs allow 1.7 sacks/game and 14% pressure rate

STAT CREW GRADES

In week 8, the Vikings crew had a very low TVO with a value of 1.044. They handed out 98 solo tackles and just 20 assists for 118 combined tackles on 113 tackle opportunities. The AVO of 17.7% (20 assists on 113 opportunities) was the lowest we’ve seen in any game this year by far. This game looks like an outlier as the Vikings crew averaged nearly a 40% assist ratio in their other 3 home games this year, and they were one of the most generous crews in the league in 2021.

We also used to see very low assisted tackle numbers consistently in games that were played in London, but that has clearly changed. As an example, the Jacksonville game in Wembley Stadium this week gave out 1.25 combined tackles per opportunity (and 48 assists total), which ranked 4^th among all games played this week.

There are some crews at the top where you can likely expect more tackles to be awarded on average for each opportunity. These are stadiums which you may want to focus on with some of your IDP matchups as they will tend to inflate the number of IDPs who are involved in each play.

Home STADIUMS with MOST GENEROUS (tackle per opportunity) stat crews this week include:

• Atlanta (vs LA Chargers) – 1.23 tackles/opp
• Jacksonville (vs Las Vegas) – 1.22 tackles/opp
• Chicago (vs Miami) – 1.22 tackles/opp

Home STADIUMS with LEAST GENEROUS (tackles per opportunity) stat crews this week include:

• Kansas City (vs Tennessee) – 1.15 tackles/opp
• Tampa Bay (vs LA Rams) – 1.15 tackles/opp
• Arizona (vs Seattle) – 1.15 tackles/opp
• Detroit (vs Green Bay) – 1.16 tackles/opp

Some leagues may place a premium on SOLO TACKLES and award more points for them than two assisted tackles. In that case, you’d want to focus on matchups played in STADIUMS that award a high percentage of solo tackles. This week that would include:

• Jacksonville (vs Las Vegas) – 81% solos
• Arizona (vs Seattle) – 81% solos
• Houston (vs Philadelphia) – 81% solos

In other cases, you may not want to differentiate between a solo or an assist and want to just focus on total tackles. HOME CREWS this week that tend to award the highest percentage of ASSISTS per opportunity are:

• New Orleans (vs Baltimore) – 48% assists
• Atlanta (vs LA Chargers) – 45% assists
• Washington (vs Minnesota) – 44% assists

Hopefully this helps give you some useful information for creating your lineups this week. Please reach out with any questions or feedback.

Email: rudnicki@footballguys.com
Twitter: @a_rudnicki