IDP Matchups and Stat Trends - Week 08

The Footballguys IDP Matchup Spreadsheet is used to track trends around the league to help with evaluating IDP matchups. I’ll use this article to call out some interesting numbers in the data each week.

You can find the Microsoft Excel tool HERE

SCHEDULE TAB

I’ve added in a new Schedule tab this year to try and quickly identify favorable matchups each week. I pulled in some key metrics for the defense as well as the offense they are facing this week.

When I look at matchups for this week, these are the matchups that look MOST FAVORABLE from a tackling perspective (with some notes if the matchup is particularly unfavorable for run vs pass):

• PITTSBURGH (vs Philadelphia) – Eagles generating 59 tackle opps/game (36 rush attempts)
• MINNESOTA (vs Arizona) – Cardinals generating 56 tackle opps/game
• WASHINGTON (vs Indianapolis) – Colts generating 55 tackle opps/game (*QB change)
• CINCINNATI (vs Cleveland) – Browns generating 54 tackle opps/game (32 rush attempts)
• CLEVELAND (vs Cincinnati) – Bengals averaging 54 tackle opps/game (27 pass completions)
• SEATTLE (vs NY Giants) – Giants averaging 53 tackle opps/game (32 rush attempts)

In contrast, these matchups look LEAST FAVORABLE from a tackling perspective (with some notes if the matchup is particularly unfavorable for run vs pass):

• ATLANTA (vs Carolina) – Panthers generating 41 tackle opps/game
• CHICAGO (vs Dallas) – Cowboys generating 46 tackle opps/game (18 pass completions)
• HOUSTON (vs Tennessee) – Titans generating 46 tackle opps/game (16 pass completions)
• TENNESSEE (vs Houston) – Texans generating 47 tackle opps/game
• TAMPA BAY (vs Baltimore) – Ravens generating 47 tackle opps/game (17 pass completions)
• DETROIT (vs Miami) – Dolphins generating 47 tackle opps/game (21 rush attempts)

You may also want some help picking out matchups for pass rushers. These are some that look MOST FAVORABLE to me from a pass-rush perspective:

• DALLAS (vs Chicago) – pressure allowed on 28% of dropbacks (3.9 sacks/game)
• SAN FRANCISCO (vs LA Rams) – pressure allowed on 15% of dropbacks (3.7 sacks/game)
• JACKSONVILLE (vs Denver) – pressure allowed on 19% of dropbacks (3.0 sacks/game)
• INDIANAPOLIS (vs Washington) – pressure allowed on 22% of dropbacks (3.4 sacks/game)
• WASHINGTON (vs Indianapolis) – pressure allowed on 19% of dropbacks (3.4 sacks/game)
• SEATTLE (vs NY Giants) – pressure allowed on 21% of dropbacks (2.9 sacks/game)
• CINCINNATI (vs Cleveland) – pressure allowed on 15% of dropbacks (9 sacks allowed over last 2 games)

On the flip side, here are some matchups that look LEAST FAVORABLE from a pass-rush perspective:

• BALTIMORE (vs Tampa Bay) – pressure allowed on 9% of dropbacks (1.4 sacks/game)
• DENVER (vs Jacksonville) – pressure allowed on 9% of dropbacks (1.4 sacks/game)
• GREEN BAY (vs Buffalo) – pressure allowed on 10% of dropbacks (1.7 sacks/game)
• NY JETS (vs New England) – pressure allowed on 10% of dropbacks (1.7 sacks/game)
• CHICAGO (vs Dallas) – pressure allowed on 15% of dropbacks (1.6 sacks/game)
• TAMPA BAY (vs Baltimore) – pressure allowed on 12% of dropbacks (1.9 sacks/game)

STAT CREW GRADES

In week 7, the Chargers crew had a very low TVO with a value of 1.086. They handed out 91 solo tackles and just 23 assists for 114 combined tackles on 105 tackle opportunities. The AVO of 21.9% (23 assists on 105 opportunities) was the lowest we’ve seen in any game this year. While this game was clearly an outlier, the Chargers crew has not been very generous with assisted tackles in any of their 4 home games this year.

There are some crews at the top where you can likely expect more tackles to be awarded on average for each opportunity. These are stadiums which you may want to focus on with some of your IDP matchups as they will tend to inflate the number of IDPs who are involved in each play.

Home STADIUMS with MOST GENEROUS (tackle per opportunity) stat crews this week include:

• LA Rams (vs San Francisco) – 1.26 tackles/opp
• Indianapolis (vs Washington) – 1.25 tackles/opp
• Atlanta (vs Carolina) – 1.23 tackles/opp

Home STADIUMS with LEAST GENEROUS (tackles per opportunity) stat crews this week include:

• Tampa Bay (vs Baltimore) – 1.15 tackles/opp
• Buffalo (vs Green Bay) – 1.15 tackles/opp
• Detroit (vs Miami) – 1.16 tackles/opp

Some leagues may place a premium on SOLO TACKLES and award more points for them than two assisted tackles. In that case, you’d want to focus on matchups played in STADIUMS that award a high percentage of solo tackles. This week that would include:

• Buffalo (vs Green Bay) – 85% solos
• Seattle (vs NY Giants) – 84% solos
• Minnesota (vs Arizona) – 82% solos

In other cases, you may not want to differentiate between a solo or an assist and want to just focus on total tackles. HOME CREWS this week that tend to award the highest percentage of ASSISTS per opportunity are:

• Indianapolis (vs Washington) – 49% assists
• LA Rams (vs San Francisco) – 49% assists
• New Orleans (vs Las Vegas) – 48% assists
• Philadelphia (vs Pittsburgh) – 47% assists

Hopefully this helps give you some useful information for creating your lineups this week. Please reach out with any questions or feedback.

Email: rudnicki@footballguys.com
Twitter: @a_rudnicki