The Footballguys IDP Matchup Spreadsheet is used to track trends around the league to help with evaluating IDP matchups. I’ll use this article to call out some interesting numbers in the data each week.
You can find the tool HERE.
STAT CREW GRADES
Every NFL stadium has its own stat crew, who are responsible for assigning tackles and assists on each play. Generally, when a tackle occurs, the statistician can award one solo, two assists, or one solo and one assist. This tab measures the tendencies for each stadium and is broken up into three sections.
At the top, we look at Tackles vs Opportunity (TVO), which compares the total number of tackles awarded to the total number of tackle opportunities faced. Tackle opportunities here is defined as rush attempts (minus quarterback kneel-downs) plus pass attempts and sacks. Teams that rank highest are more likely to credit multiple players on a play so the overall tackle numbers will be inflated.
The next two sections look at Solos vs Opportunity (SVO) and Assist vs Opportunity (AVO), which make a similar comparison for solo tackles and assisted tackles. Stadiums that rank high in one typically rank low in the other, but not always.
These trends tend to be pretty consistent throughout the year, but there are times when they change from one season to the next. Looking at trends for the first four weeks of this year, stadiums like Pittsburgh, the New York Giants, and Minnesota remain among the most favorable crews in the league as they were a year ago. Similarly, crews in Baltimore, Washington, Tampa Bay, and Arizona have remained near the bottom as the least favorable crews. Buffalo has only had one home game, but their crew went from one of the most favorable last year to the least favorable crew this year.
It may be helpful to call out several contrasting teams to understand what this data tells you. For example, Pittsburgh ranks 1st in AVO and last in SVO. They have given out assists 64% of the time but also still award solo tackles 68% of the time. That suggests IDPs will get a boost in their tackle numbers when they play in Pittsburgh. Note that the Steelers travel to Buffalo this week, so if these trends hold up, we expect fewer tackles to be awarded for Steelers IDPs like Myles Jack and Minkah Fitzpatrick.
Consider Washington as a contrasting example. They have ranked among the least generous crews in the league and awarded just 106 total tackles in Week 1 on 97 tackle opportunities (1.093 TVO). This week, they are facing Tennessee, whose own crew currently ranks 8th in TVO and recently awarded 115 tackles on 92 opportunities (1.250 TVO). Therefore, we may want to expect some tackle regression from players like Kevin Byard and David Long who have collected most of their assists while playing at home.
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TACKLE OPS
This tab of the spreadsheet will allow you to quickly look at a wide range of stat trends to try and identify situations with favorable tackle opportunities this week. For example, the Tampa Bay defense has faced an average of 59 tackle opportunities per game while the Cleveland defense has only faced an average of 42 tackle opportunities per game. So, in general, you want to target IDPs that are likely to be on the field a lot.
The next section looks at Tackle Opportunities Allowed, which tells you which offenses are doing a good job of controlling the game and staying on the field as that provides more chances for their opponent. So, from a tackle perspective, you’d want to target defenses against Philadelphia, Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Arizona. Two of those teams (Philadelphia, Arizona) play each other this week so that may cancel out, which leaves the LA Chargers (vs Cleveland) and Baltimore (vs Cincinnati) as groups who should see a boost this week.
Moving further down the page, you will also see some sections that might be more helpful for players in the secondary (cornerbacks and safeties). For example, you can see which defenses are allowing the most pass completions, and the two teams at the top are Kansas City (30.8/game) and Baltimore (28.5/game). If you look closer at Baltimore though, you can see they only allowed 22 and 19 in their past two games so they are trending in the opposite direction. These numbers will vary based on matchups and game scripts, but they give you a look at which teams are getting more tackles via pass plays. You can also look at Pass Attempts Faced to identify teams consistently seeing more chances at interceptions (and sacks).
SACK OPS
Moving on to the next tab, we can evaluate which matchups look most or least favorable from a pass rush perspective. At the top, you can look at Pressure Applied, which is calculated as Quarterback Hits divided by Dropbacks Faced. There you see that Dallas, Buffalo, Green Bay, and Philadelphia are getting to the quarterback on at least 20% of dropbacks. What’s probably more useful here, though, is the Pressure Allowed section, which indicates that Chicago, New York Giants, Washington, and San Francisco are giving up a pressure on more than 20% of their dropbacks. In addition to pressures (hits), you can look down further to focus on sacks allowed, and there you see Washington, Chicago, Cincinnati, and the LA Rams allowing 4+ per game. That suggests Tennessee, Minnesota, Baltimore, and Dallas are pass rushes to prioritize this week.
I’ll continue to share some thoughts and insights each week to try and point out interesting stat trends or favorable matchups from an IDP perspective. Feel free to reach out if you have any questions or suggestions.
Email: rudnicki@footballguys.com
Twitter: @a_rudnicki