WEEK 16 PREPARATION
I often base my decision-making on following stats, trends, and matchups. These thoughts are based on those observations.
10 THOUGHTS WORTH THINKING FOR WEEK 16
Keep exploiting the Vikings defense - Since Week 10, Minnesota has allowed 30, 40, 26, 22, 34, and 36 points while averaging 317 passing yards against. This week, the Giants come to the dome, followed by road games at Green Bay and Chicago. The game script did not favor Matt Ryan last week after two defensive scores and a second half that featured few pass attempts. It was never Matt Ryan's game. That was an anomaly in an otherwise juicy matchup that Daniel Jones should be able to exploit this week.
Jerick McKinnon may be on several championship teams - The Chiefs are starting to realize how valuable and versatile Jerick McKinnon is. If the last two games are any indication of what we can expect in Week 16 against the Seahawks, then McKinnon is the new version of Austin Ekeler. Like Ekeler, he performs well on the ground despite a low volume of carries. His most valuable asset is his ability to make plays as a receiver. McKinnon has 15 receptions for 182 yards in the last two games with three touchdowns. Combine that with adequate rushing totals, and you have the formula for success as a fantasy back. Keep riding the wave until it crashes, if it crashes.
Derrick Henry for the win! - If past performance is the best indicator of future performance, then Derrick Henry should be the top back this week. In his last four games against the Texans, Henry has topped 200 yards and at least two touchdowns in all four of those games. This stat range dates back to 2019 due to his foot injury last season. Henry has seven 100-yard games this season, with three additional 80-yard games. The Titans have lost four straight games and should take care of business against the Texans at home.
Gardner Minshew can help, but it may not be this week. Jalen Hurts (shoulder) is expected to miss the Week 16 showdown at Dallas, allowing Gardner Minshew to fill in under center. In two starts with the Eagles last season, Minshew scored two touchdowns in each game played, one of which was against Dallas. The Cowboys and the Eagles both boast a top-three pass defense that could force a ground-controlled game with intermittent passing. Minshew is capable of filling in and running the Eagles' style of offense, but he's not Jalen Hurts. Expect a lower output across the board, especially on the receiving end.
The loss of Jonathan Taylor opens up an opportunity in Indianapolis. Zack Moss saw more snaps and carries than Deon Jackson last week after Jonathan Taylor re-injured his ankle and left the game. Will we see the same ratio of touches in Week 16 vs the Chargers? Who is the better fantasy play? From a receiving standpoint, Jackson is a far better option than Moss, seeing as how Moss has zero receptions this season while Jackson has 21, including a Week 6 game with 10 receptions. Expect the Colts to try to control this game on the ground against one of the bottom five rushing defenses in the league, who average 145.6 rushing yards allowed per game. Coach Jeff Saturday leaned more on Moss in Week 15. He out-touched, out-carried, and out-rushed the more versatile Jackson. If last week is any indication, Moss may be the preferred option.
Sneaky flex play - Rashid Shaheed may not have more than four targets or catches in a game this year, but he is showing that his versatile play is worthy of increased usage. He has scored as a rusher and as a receiver, and since Week 11 his snap count percentage has grown each week. He has 53, 75, and 95 yards receiving in each of the last three games culminating with a touchdown last week. He is developing into a sneaky flex play for the playoff stretch.
Two unsuspecting defenses who could help win your league - Detroit and Los Angeles Chargers. Detroit is the #2 fantasy defense since Week 10 with 4 fumble recoveries, 5 interceptions, 18 sacks, and 1 defensive score. They play at Carolina in Week 16 and home vs. Chicago in Week 17. Los Angeles has not been as productive, but their schedule is more inviting, and they have been averaging fewer than 20 points allowed per game since Week 13. The Chargers will play a deflated Indianapolis team without Jonathan Taylor in Week 16 and home vs. the struggling Rams in Week 17. The playoffs are within reach and the team is starting to come together at the right time.
Geno Smith has a favorable matchup against Kansas City - Since Week 10, the Chiefs are allowing 2.2 touchdown passes allowed per game, making them the second-best matchup for quarterbacks behind Jacksonville. Smith has 2+ touchdown passes in 11 of his 14 games played this season, and it is looking like he might have another in Kansas City. He'll be without Tyler Lockett (finger), but Marquise Goodwin is expected to help fill the void.
Is Chris Moore still a decent play? Chris Moore leads the Texans in targets since Week 10, and the margin has grown considerably with Nico Collins (foot) and Brandin Cooks (calf) out of the lineup the last two games. Moore has 20 targets in those games and has developed a strong rapport with the combo of Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel at quarterback. If Collins and Cooks are out once again, Moore's potential value soars. Tennessee has allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers this year, but this could be a ground-controlled game with a ton of rushing led by Derrick Henry. As good as it appears to be, matchup-wise, this may not be the best script for Moore. Those odds drop off more if Collins or Cooks can play. Is he a decent play? Yes. If Cooks or Collins plays, his value drops.
Who is the favorable Giants wide receiver? This trio at wide receiver is tough to gauge. Darius Slayton, Richie James, and Isaiah Hodgins have shared the wealth, with no specific frontman coming forward. Since Week 12, after Wan'Dale Robinson's injury, James has the most receptions (19), Slayton has the most yards (218), and Hodgins and James have the most touchdowns (2 apiece). Data says Richie James has been slightly better, but you're only as good as your last game. I'd rank them Slayton>Hodgins>James in this matchup against the Vikings. If you have any of the three with little other options at flex, I can see some hope this week.
Good luck this week. Don't be afraid to release a player who you stashed if the replacement can help you win. Go earn your ticket to the Championship Game.
Questions, comments, and start/sit decisions are always welcome. Hit me up on Twitter.