Defensive Back Tiers

Links to similar discussions on other positions:

Why Tiers?

Most fantasy owners are used to drafting off a simple ranking of players, but that can mask underlying differences that exist between players. For example, two players may be ranked right next to each other on a cheatsheet but there could be a wide gap in the expected production for them. In that case, you would probably want to draft the higher-ranked player a full round earlier than the lower-ranked player. Similarly, there may be a large group of players with very similar projections that are bunched together on a ranking sheet. It may seem that a player ranked 10^th is much more valuable than a player ranked 15th, but if only a few projected points separate them, then they are roughly equivalent in value. Rather than force yourself to pick one, it may be best to focus on another position and then come back to this position in the next round since you’re likely to get a player of nearly identical value.

Grouping players into distinct tiers or buckets provides additional context that allows a drafter to make more informed decisions. The projections we offer at Footballguys also help a lot in this regard, but those are still static projections that may not fully indicate the range of likely outcomes for a player. For example, two players may be projected with similar numbers, but one may have significantly more upside and/or a higher floor than the other. Those types of risk vs reward decisions are inherent in any fantasy draft. While drafting the safe players will typically help you build a solid team, you often need to take some chances and hit on some players who significantly exceed their preseason expectations to win.

Rankings are typically helpful in ordering players within the same position group, but tiers can help you figure out which position to take as you move through a draft. If you see a large group of linebackers capable of putting up top-12 numbers but only one defensive lineman likely to put up elite numbers, it’s wise to grab the lineman and assume a quality linebacker will last until your next pick. This helps maximize the value of your pick and is a strategy that all strong fantasy players use to some extent.

How to Use the Tiers

1. These tiers are based on expected performance for the 2022 season in a balanced scoring system. While dynasty owners always need to consider long-term outcomes to some extent, the upcoming season is most critical for player value. I’ll highlight some dynasty stash options in a separate tier that you can focus on if you are less concerned about this year and want to focus on building for the future.
2. Positional classifications can differ depending on what your league-hosting website uses. For consistency, I will rely on the official Footballguys player classifications. For the most part, these should match up well with the major sources that exist online, but there could be differences. Assigning edge rushers to linebacker or defensive end (or edge rusher) is the main area that causes issues here as the classification can have a huge impact on fantasy value.
3. Will add an asterisk (*) for any players that have added value in big-play scoring systems. There is a lot of scoring variability that exists among IDP leagues, so if your league places added value on big plays (i.e., sacks, interceptions, forced fumbles, etc.), this information should help you identify some key targets in each tier.

SAFETIES TIER 1: THE ELITE

• Derwin James, LAC *
• Minkah Fitzpatrick, PIT *
• Jamal Adams, SEA
• Harrison Smith, MIN *
• Jordan Poyer, BUF *
• Jeremy Chinn, CAR

While defensive backs are plentiful and, therefore, not nearly as valuable as linebackers and defensive linemen, these are the players who clearly stand out from the rest at the position. They should all post around 75 solo tackles while adding enough big plays to make them nearly as productive as the second-tier linebackers. Given the depth at defensive back, most will wait until the middle or late portions of the draft to fill out these roster spots. However, if you take a safety early, these are likely the players you’ll want to target. You could make a case that Derwin James belongs in a tier by himself at the top, although there likely isn’t that much separation between him and the rest. In tackle-heavy scoring systems, Jamal Adams and Jeremy Chinn may warrant an earlier selection, while Minkah Fitzpatrick and Jordan Poyer will get a boost in big-play leagues.

SAFETIES TIER 2: LOW-END #1 OPTIONS

• Antoine Winfield, TB
• Budda Baker, ARI
• Jalen Thompson, ARI
• Kevin Byard, TEN *
• Johnathan Abram, LV
• Justin Simmons, DEN *
• Jessie Bates III, CIN
• Vonn Bell, CIN

This group has more variability than the players in the elite tier, which gives them a lower floor, but they can still likely be relied on as every-week starters. All should push to finish with 70 solo tackles and post enough big plays to offer several high-scoring weeks throughout the season. Budda Baker has a long history of elite production, but his numbers fell off last year with the emergence of Jalen Thompson in Arizona. Jonathan Abram and Thompson project to be the top tacklers in this group, while Kevin Byard and Justin Simmons stand out from a big-play perspective.

SAFETIES TIER 3: SOLID #2

• Kyle Hamilton, BAL
• Xavier McKinney, NYG
• Kyle Dugger, NE
• Marcus Maye, NO
• Taylor Rapp, LAR
• Brandon Jones, MIA
• Jayron Kearse, DAL
• Kamren Curl, WAS
• Jordan Fuller, LAR
• Adrian Amos, GB
• Tracy Walker, DET

The depth at the position quickly becomes apparent as you move into this tier as there isn’t much separation among these players in terms of their expected production. While a free safety who doesn’t play up in the box very often could sneak into this group, they would need to offset low tackle numbers with high interceptions. Nearly every member of this group is a capable run stopper who should post reliable numbers each week and give you a solid baseline of production. Due to some of their limitations in coverage, however, they may lack the playmaking upside of those in the upper tiers. Kyle Hamilton is a wild card who comes into the league with high potential as a rookie and joins a team who hasn’t seen much fantasy success from their safeties of late. Xavier McKinney broke out with five interceptions last year and should take on a bigger role with the departure of Logan Ryan. Taylor Rapp is best suited to play up in the box, but his status as a starter isn’t even a certainty. Kyle Dugger could have star potential in New England but also has to compete with a productive counterpart in Adrian Phillips. Marcus Maye is the only player in this group to have changed teams this offseason but could blow up as the Saints' new starting strong safety.

SAFETIES TIER 4: TOP BACKUPS

• Logan Ryan, TB
• Jordan Whitehead, NYJ
• Tyrann Mathieu, NO
• Adrian Phillips, NE
• Jevon Holland, MI
• Julian Love, NYG
• Quandre Diggs, SEA
• Nasir Adderley, LAC
• Eddie Jackson, CHI
• John Johnson, CLE
• Amani Hooker, TEN
• Justin Reid, KC
• Xavier Woods, CAR
• Grant Delpit, CLE

With the assumption that most leagues start two safeties, you should aim to get at least two and preferably three players from the first three tiers. If you miss out, however, there’s no need to panic as you can still build solid depth with players from this group. These players will be more matchup-dependent and carry more risk but will likely provide starter production for much of the year. One potential target here who could have added upside is Jordan Whitehead, who left one of the best teams in the league to join one of the worst and should see a lot more tackle opportunities. Jevon Holland and Grant Delpit are a pair of young safeties to look at closely since there may be more room for them to grow into. If you are looking for a safer option, consider some reliable veterans like Logan Ryan, Tyrann Mathieu, or even Justin Reid, who all find themselves on new teams this year.

SAFETIES TIER 5: DYNASTY STASHES

• Jaquan Brisker, CHI
• Lewis Cine, MIN
• Jalen Pitre, HOU
• Daxton Hill, CIN
• Nick Cross, IND
• Bryan Cook, KC

Kyle Hamilton stood out in this year’s draft class, but there was a lot of talent behind him, with nine safeties taken over the first three rounds. Each of these six players could wind up in a starting role as soon as this year, but most will likely need a year or two of development to reach their true potential. Nick Cross should benefit from the early retirement of Khari Willis in Indianapolis. At the same time, Jaquan Brisker (assuming he returns from surgery in time) looks ready to start alongside Eddie Jackson in Chicago, and Jalen Pitre may open the year as a starter for Houston. It probably won't be long for the rest of the group to carve out key roles on their respective teams as well.

CORNERBACKS TIER 1: THE ELITE

• Kenny Moore, IND
• Jalen Ramsey, LAR
• Marlon Humphrey, BAL
• LJarius Sneed, KC *
• Trevon Diggs, DAL *

Cornerback is an extremely deep position, and there tends to be a lot of variability from year to year as their value depends heavily on difficult-to-predict interceptions. This emphasizes targeting corners who post more consistent tackle numbers since that added reliability allows you to start them just about every week without looking at matchups. If your league combines cornerbacks and safeties together, the top corners are still probably no higher than Tier 3, so you’ll probably want to load up on safeties first.

Kenny Moore likely belongs in his own tier at the top, as FBG Consensus projections have him 30 points ahead of the next higher player. He is a strong all-around player who has averaged 73 solo tackles and 4 interceptions over the past two years. Jalen Ramsey was moved around the formation more last year, so offenses couldn’t avoid him as easily, while Marlon Humphrey will look to bounce back from a down year but both are shutdown corners who can also support the run. Trevon Diggs doesn’t have the same run support chops as the rest and gives up plenty of catches, but he’s an elite playmaker coming off a record-tying season with 11 interceptions.

CORNERBACKS TIER 2: STRONG STARTERS

• Carlton Davis, TB
• Marcus Peters, BAL *
• J.C. Jackson, LAC *
• Xavien Howard, MIA *
• Byron Murphy, ARI
• Taron Johnson, BUF
• A.J. Terrell, ATL
• Donte Jackson, CAR
• Kendall Fuller, WAS
• Anthony Brown, DAL
• Chidobe Awuzie, CIN
• Patrick Surtain, DEN

This group makes up the bulk of the remaining players who should be considered safe to start every week without worrying too much about the matchups. There aren’t many true shutdown corners on this list, so nearly all of them should see enough targets to make a consistent fantasy impact. They are certainly good enough to hold onto their starting jobs but not quite good enough that quarterbacks will avoid throwing in their direction. It also helps if they are aggressive and active in run support, which can boost their tackle numbers. Taron Johnson and Kendall Fuller get a clear boost in tackle-heavy scoring systems as they tend to rack up big production playing out of the slot. In big-play leagues, Xavien Howard and J.C. Jackson stand out thanks to their impressive interception numbers, and Marcus Peters isn’t too far behind them.

CORNERBACKS TIER 3: TOP BACKUPS

• TreDavious White, BUF
• Marshon Lattimore, NO
• Jaycee Horn, CAR
• Rasul Douglas, GB
• Amani Oruwariye, DET
• D.J. Reed, NYJ
• Paulson Adebo, NO
• Desmond King, HOU
• Derek Stingley, HOU
• Darious Williams, JAX
• Adoree Jackson, NYG
• Troy Hill, LAR

These players stand out slightly among the large group of backup cornerbacks, but the reality is they aren’t a whole lot different than the players who will be available on the waiver wire throughout the season. Many astute fantasy owners are comfortable picking up waiver wire options to start each week based on the most favorable matchups. Consider these players as matchup-dependent with a chance to emerge as every-week starters.

CORNERBACKS TIER 4: DYNASTY STASHES

• Ahmad Gardner, NYJ
• Andrew Booth, MIN
• Trent McDuffie, KC
• Kaiir Elam, BUF
• Roger McCreary, TEN
• Marcus Jones, NE
• Kyler Gordon, CHI

There are always a large number of cornerbacks drafted given how important the position is in today’s NFL. The problem is it can be difficult to predict which of these players will be given an early opportunity to start. Draft capital is one of the best predictors, so you should feel confident that most high picks will get a chance to play. When that happens, we typically expect a trial-by-fire scenario with opposing quarterbacks targeting them early and often until they prove themselves. When the player was drafted highly, they will also tend to get a much longer leash from their coaches so which can help them sustain their production even longer. Therefore, these players are worth targeting for backup or taxi squad roles. Ahmad Gardner should start from week 1 with the Jets, but the others on this list may need to wait for their opportunity.