As we enter the fantasy playoffs, I’d like to start this week’s article off by giving some matchup statistics to help you with some tiebreakers in start-sit decisions. These matchup grades are calculated using Big 3 IDP scoring; a relatively balanced scoring format. I’ll close out the article with some quick injury news.
The New York Giants, Cleveland Browns, Washington Commanders, and Houston Texans are all ideal matchups for defensive tackles.
Team defensive tackles have averaged over 42 points per game in each of those matchups. The league average is 33.5 PPG. Managers needing a tiebreaker can use this to help determine who to start. Additionally, the Miami Dolphins are an outlier poor matchup for team defensive tackles as they have allowed only 20 PPG to the position.
The Los Angeles Rams are an ideal matchup for edge rushers.
They have allowed 42 PPG to team edge rushers this season when the average is only 31 PPG. Other strong matchups are the Indianapolis Colts, Washington Commanders, and the Los Angeles Chargers, who have all allowed over 38 PPG. The Dallas Cowboys stand out as a particularly poor matchup for team edge rushers as they have allowed only 18 PPG to the position.
The Washington Commanders and the Seattle Seahawks are ideal matchups for team linebackers.
Both teams have allowed over 34 PPG to the position when the league average is 30 PPG. The Los Angeles Chargers, Indianapolis Colts, Cincinnati Bengals, and Miami Dolphins are also strong matchups for linebackers as they have allowed over 32 PPG to the position. The Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, and Atlanta Falcons have all allowed fewer than 25 PPG to opposing linebackers this season.
The Minnesota Vikings are an ideal matchup for opposing cornerbacks.
They have allowed over 43 PPG to the position, which is highly favorable to the league average of 33 PPG. The Arizona Cardinals, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Indianapolis Colts also allow over 40 PPG to opposing cornerbacks. Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens and Carolina Panthers both allow fewer than 24 PPG to the position.
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The Indianapolis Colts are an ideal matchup for opposing safeties.
They have allowed 37 PPG, whereas the league average is 29 PPG. The New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, Baltimore Ravens, and Cleveland Browns all allow over 34 PPG to opposing safeties. Managers should try to avoid the Los Angeles Rams and the Washington Commanders, who allow fewer than 24 PPG to the position.
Tennessee LBs Dylan Cole and Monty Rice led the team in defensive snaps at the position.
David Long was placed on IR last week, leaving an opening for valuable opportunities in the Titans’ linebacker room. Cole played 82% of defensive snaps, and Rice played 71% of defensive snaps. Rice had a significantly higher tackle efficiency with 12 tackles on 51 snaps - a rate of 24%. Cole earned five tackles on 59 snaps - a rate of 8%. Expect both of these tackle rates to regress to the mean. Managers in need of linebacker help in moderately deep IDP leagues can look to either player as an upside play, but exercise caution as they have lower floors than players that see a full allotment of snaps.
Cleveland’s linebacker situation is a mess.
Let’s break it down. Deion Jones led the team with 88% of defensive snaps and earned seven tackles at a 12% rate. Next was Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, who played 81% of snaps and earned six tackles at an 11% rate. Owusu-Koramoah exited the game late with a leg injury, so there is a chance he will miss some time. Finally, Jordan Kunaszyk and Tony Fields played less than 20% of snaps and earned no tackles. If Owusu-Koramoah misses any time, expect one of those two linebackers to elevate to a potentially-relevant role. As it stands, all players are risky starts with good upside in deep leagues.
Minnesota S Josh Metellus played 100% of defensive snaps in Week 14.
Metellus started over Harrison Smith, who sat out the game with a neck injury. Metellus earned nine tackles and played 37% of snaps in the sweet spot. Should Smith miss next week, expect Metellus to start again and be a relevant IDP safety option for deep leagues.