The Spotlight Series
A Footballguys Spotlight is an in-depth look at a player. His plusses and minuses are examined, and we give you our bottom-line stance on his 2022 prospects. If a player listed below doesn't yet have a link, don't worry. It's coming soon.
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Tight Ends
Predicting the Future is Hard
Amon-Ra St. Brown is a reminder of the absurdity of predicting future outcomes. That may sound ironic coming from a fantasy football analyst whose job is making rankings, projections, and predictions – but we all know that we’re trying to synthesize a vast array of possible outcomes and betting on the paths we see as most likely. Any successful fantasy season will be wrought with head-scratching decisions along the way. No one hoisting their league trophy in a few months will have done so without glaringly wrong takes that go entirely awry.
A year ago, St. Brown was a fantasy afterthought in redraft leagues. He was drafted 64th among receivers, on average. The lukewarm ADP spoke to St. Brown’s NFL draft pedigree. He was a three-year starter for USC but didn’t garner the national attention a USC receiver normally would because the Trojans were in a historic down period under fired coach Clay Helton. Despite USC’s struggles, St. Brown was production; he caught 178 receptions, 2,270 yards, and 16 touchdowns in 30 games.
Last April, he was drafted in the fourth round (112th overall) as the 17th receiver in an ultra-deep class of pass catchers.
2021 NFL Draft Results, Receivers (through St. Brown at WR17)
| PosRank | Round | Overall | Player | NFLTeam | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 5 | Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | LSU |
| 2 | 1 | 6 | Jaylen Waddle | MIA | Alabama |
| 3 | 1 | 10 | DeVonta Smith | PHI | Alabama |
| 4 | 1 | 20 | Kadarius Toney | NYG | Florida |
| 5 | 1 | 27 | Rashod Bateman | BAL | Minnesota |
| 6 | 2 | 34 | Elijah Moore | NYJ | Mississippi |
| 7 | 2 | 49 | Rondale Moore | ARI | Purdue |
| 8 | 2 | 56 | D'Wayne Eskridge | SEA | WesternMichigan |
| 9 | 2 | 57 | Tutu Atwell | LAR | Louisville |
| 10 | 2 | 59 | Terrace Marshall | CAR | LSU |
| 11 | 3 | 77 | Josh Palmer | LAC | Tennessee |
| 12 | 3 | 82 | Dyami Brown | WAS | UNC |
| 13 | 3 | 85 | Amari Rodgers | GB | Clemson |
| 14 | 3 | 89 | Nico Collins | HOU | Michigan |
| 15 | 3 | 91 | Anthony Schwartz | CLE | Auburn |
| 16 | 4 | 109 | Dez Fitzpatrick | TEN | Louisville |
| 17 | 4 | 112 | Amon-Ra St.Brown | DET | USC |
St. Brown had plenty working against him, including:
- A pedigree that doesn’t usually lead to strong rookie fantasy outcomes – Fourth-round receivers are a crapshoot to contribute, much less star. Less than 50% are running routes for an NFL roster by their third season. Also, St. Brown isn’t an elite athlete, ranking below average in most metrics for speed, strength, and agility.
- An uncertain depth chart – At the end of training camp, veteran Tyrell Williams was the No. 1 receiver, and Kalif Raymond was listed as the starter on the other side. 2nd-year Quintez Cephus and journeyman Tom Kennedy were listed as the No. 2 receivers on the depth chart, leaving St. Brown and Trinity Benson as the 5th and 6th receivers.
- A quarterback widely viewed as being outside the Top 20 – We don’t need to spend a lot of time bashing Jared Goff, other than to say he’s generally considered a below-average starter despite his pedigree as a No. 1 overall draft pick.
- Young, emerging stars in D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson commanding high target shares – Not only was St. Brown not projected as a starting receiver last summer, but the Lions top two weapons, Swift and Hockenson, are both well above average as pass catchers at their respective positions.
Through 12 weeks, those who bought into the skepticism looked prescient.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Weekly Stats, Weeks 1-12, 2021
| Week | Tgts | Recs | Yds | YPR | TDs | Ctch% | Yd/Tgt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 | 50.0% | 5.8 |
| 2 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 | 60.0% | 3.6 |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 100.0% | 2.0 |
| 4 | 8 | 6 | 70 | 11.7 | 0 | 75.0% | 8.8 |
| 5 | 8 | 7 | 65 | 9.3 | 0 | 87.5% | 8.1 |
| 6 | 7 | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 | 71.4% | 3.7 |
| 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| 8 | 5 | 3 | 46 | 15.3 | 0 | 60.0% | 9.2 |
| 10 | 6 | 4 | 61 | 15.3 | 0 | 66.7% | 10.2 |
| 11 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 | 100.0% | 4.5 |
| 12 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 | 100.0% | 5.8 |
| Average | 4.7 | 3.5 | 32.0 | 9.0 | - | 75.0% | 6.8 |
Through 12 weeks:
- 65th-ranked fantasy receiver (PPR)
- On pace for 57 receptions, 512 yards, and 0 touchdowns
But life has a way of making fools out of sages and vice versa
DAndre Swift only played ten snaps in Week 12 and was done for the rest of the season. T.J. Hockenson played through Week 13 but was gone from Weeks 14 through 18. And the Lions receiving corps was a maddening mishmash of veteran castoffs and journeymen:
Lions Receiver Snap Counts, Through Week 12 (2021)
| Player | Snaps | Snap% |
|---|---|---|
| Kalif Raymond | 532 | 74.7% |
| Amon-Ra St.Brown | 487 | 68.4% |
| Trinity Benson | 231 | 32.4% |
| Quintez Cephus | 212 | 29.8% |
| Khadarel Hodge | 167 | 23.5% |
| Josh Reynolds | 86 | 12.1% |
| Geronimo Allison | 47 | 6.6% |
| Tyrell Williams | 39 | 5.5% |
| Tom Kennedy | 36 | 5.1% |
| Javon McKinley | 0 | 0.0% |
- Kalif Raymond led the way by breaking camp as the starter, but his production was dismal
- Tyrell Williams suffered a concussion in Week 1 and was waived a few weeks later
- Quintez Cephus was playing regularly before suffering a season-ending injury in Week 5
- Josh Reynolds was added mid-season after Cephus and Williams' injuries and become a regular contributor
- St. Brown had an important role from the start, notching at least 60% of snaps in all but one game before Week 11 and then moving into the 80%+ snap onward
Suddenly, St. Brown was not only Jared Goff’s favorite target, he was the only reliable option on the roster. And his fantasy value went from non-existent to unstoppable.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Weekly Stats, Weeks 1-12, 2021
| Week | Tgts | Recs | Yds | YPR | TDs | Ctch% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 12 | 10 | 86 | 8.6 | 1 | 83.3% |
| 14 | 12 | 8 | 73 | 9.1 | 0 | 66.7% |
| 15 | 11 | 8 | 90 | 11.3 | 1 | 72.7% |
| 16 | 11 | 9 | 91 | 10.1 | 1 | 81.8% |
| 17 | 11 | 8 | 111 | 13.9 | 1 | 72.7% |
| 18 | 10 | 8 | 109 | 13.6 | 1 | 80.0% |
| Average | 11.2 | 8.5 | 93.3 | 11.0 | 0.8 | 76.1% |
Through Weeks 13-18:
- On pace for 136 receptions, 1,493 yards, and 13 touchdowns
- St. Brown was the No. 3 fantasy receiver over that span
Top Fantasy Receivers, Points per Game, Weeks 13-18, 2021
| Rank | Player | Team | Gms | Recs | Yds | YPR | TDs | FP/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cooper Kupp | LAR | 6 | 53 | 710 | 13.4 | 6 | 27.0 |
| 2 | Davante Adams | GB | 5 | 43 | 470 | 10.9 | 6 | 25.2 |
| 3 | Amon-Ra St.Brown | DET | 6 | 51 | 560 | 11.0 | 5 | 24.8 |
| 4 | Deebo Samuel | SF | 5 | 21 | 399 | 19.0 | 1 | 21.3 |
| 5 | Justin Jefferson | MIN | 6 | 41 | 589 | 14.4 | 4 | 20.7 |
| 6 | Chris Godwin | TB | 3 | 31 | 297 | 9.6 | 0 | 20.5 |
| 7 | Tee Higgins | CIN | 5 | 31 | 531 | 17.1 | 3 | 20.4 |
| 8 | Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | 6 | 31 | 549 | 17.7 | 5 | 19.4 |
| 9 | A.J. Brown | TEN | 3 | 17 | 254 | 14.9 | 2 | 18.1 |
| 10 | Tyler Lockett | SEA | 5 | 23 | 362 | 15.7 | 5 | 18.0 |
If you were fortunate enough to grab St. Brown off waivers after his first big target week, you no doubt got a boost for a deep playoff run.
So What Do We Do With St. Brown This Year?
- St. Brown is currently being drafted 30th among receivers and 68th overall.
- Among our staff, his average ranking stands at 29.8.
In other words, our consensus outlook is generally aligned with industry expectations.
The Way Drafting St. Brown Works Out for You
1) The offensive line lives up to expectations as a Top 5 unit
2) Jared Goff is more comfortable in a clean pocket
3) St. Brown’s reliability late in 2021 cements Goff’s trust as the alpha receiver
4) Neither Swift nor Hockenson stay healthy, again
5) Jameson Williams and D.J. Chark emerge as complementary pieces but neither overtake St. Brown as the top playmaker
The Way Drafting St. Brown Busts
1) Jared Goff remains the same inconsistent playmaker he’s been for three consecutive seasons
2) Jameson Williams returns from a torn ACL quickly, and his superior skill set drives him into the alpha role quickly
3) T.J. Hockenson stays healthy
4) DAndre Swift stays healthy
Stats and Projections
| Season | Games | Rushes | RuYards | RuTDs | Targets | Recs | ReYards | ReTDs | FumLost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 16 | 7 | 61 | 1 | 119 | 90 | 912 | 5 | 0 |
| Projector | Games | Rushes | RuYards | RuTDs | Recs | ReYards | ReTDs | FumLost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Footballguys Consensus | 16.2 | 8.0 | 61 | 0.5 | 88.6 | 904 | 5.8 | 0.0 |
| Anthony Amico | 17.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 105.2 | 1066 | 5.8 | 0.0 |
| Sigmund Bloom | 17.0 | 7.0 | 55 | 0.0 | 88.0 | 895 | 5.0 | 0.0 |
| Justin Freeman | 15.0 | 8.8 | 62 | 0.2 | 93.5 | 947 | 5.5 | 0.1 |
| Bob Henry | 16.0 | 13.0 | 100 | 1.0 | 87.0 | 880 | 7.0 | 0.0 |
| Maurile Tremblay | 17.0 | 6.0 | 37 | 0.1 | 82.0 | 871 | 5.5 | 0.9 |
| Jason Wood | 16.0 | 6.0 | 50 | 1.0 | 75.0 | 810 | 5.0 | 0.0 |
Final Thoughts
Getting back to the original point – predicting the future is hard. Few receivers have as wide a range of potential outcomes as Amon-Ra St. Brown. But at his current price, no one is assuming last year's late-season excellence is sustainable. You're probably not drafting him if you're hung up on pre-draft pedigree. But if you believe what happens once a player gets to the league is far more predictive (hint: it is a LOT more predictive), then you have to like him at his cost. While it's true that his late-season opportunity only came to pass because of a confluence of injuries, who cares? All that matters is what he did once he got the opportunity. His 34% target share in the final weeks is unsustainable. However, let's not forget opposing defenses also knew he was Goff's only reliable option, and they still couldn't stop him. As long as St. Brown commands a 22%-24% target share this year, likely as a full-time starter regardless of Hockenson and Swift being healthy, he'll more than live up to his WR30 price tag. Draft with confidence as a rock-solid third receiver, and know you could be getting top-20 returns as a bonus.