Will Josh Jacobs Be a Year-One Workhorse?

Photo: USA Today Sports

THREE REASONS JOSH JACOBS CAN BE A FEATURE BACK FROM DAY ONE

1. Jon Gruden’s usage of lead running backs tends to be heavy
2. The offense will likely remain a run-heavy unit compared to others in the NFL, but Josh Jacobs can contribute as a pass catcher if the offense is more pass-heavy than expected
3. The competing talent on the roster will not pose much of a threat to Jacobs’ workload

SUMMARY

Factoring in talent, probable usage, and offensive scheme, Josh Jacobs’ path to a workhorse role seems clear. A full-season of at least 220 touches and 30 catches is very much in play for the young running back as a conservative estimate. While some worry about his lack of usage at Alabama, film review shows a back that shined and grew, despite limited opportunities. Josh Jacobs is one of the few value picks at running back available after the third round of drafts. Draft him with confidence, but be prepared for Jacobs to rise up draft boards as the summer progresses.

JUSTIFYING JACOBS

Jacobs was the only running back selected in the first round of the 2019 draft. When watching the film of Jacobs, what pops off the tape is how well-rounded his game is both as a pass catcher and as a runner. Bend, burst, vision, balance, and foot quickness are the defining traits one can see while observing him. He may not possess the long speed that will result in big play touchdowns, but these types of plays are hard to predict and difficult to rely on. He's already an excellent pass protector, which should give him a leg up versus most rookies.

There are some parallels to the offensive line that Jacobs ran behind at Alabama and the one he will be paired with in Oakland. The Crimson Tide were not married to one blocking scheme, instead utilizing both zone and power concepts. Likewise, the Raiders currently use both outside zone and man blocking concepts. Jacobs demonstrates aptitude in either type of scheme. Also, Alabama’s linemen are known for their bulk. Pound for pound, the Raiders have one of the beefiest lines in the NFL. Not having to adjust to big differences in Jacobs' personnel group should help him make a quick transition to the professional game.

JACOBS’ ALABAMA USAGE

Unlike most early-round draft picks, Jacobs wasn't a workhorse in college. He wasn't even the lead back in his final year of collegiate play, as Damien Harris (drafted by the Patriots) played a big role, too.

Rather than dwell on the limited touches, focus on the positives of Jacobs’ Crimson Tide deployment. On the rare occasions that Alabama played in close contests, the ball was in his hands. He scored 14 touchdowns, tying receiver Jerry Jeudy for the team lead last season.

Jacobs only touched the ball 299 times in college. That may work in his favor as he enters the professional ranks. He lacks the wear and tear of most feature runners.

GRUDEN’S GRINDERS

As Marcus Mosher has pointed out, Jon Gruden is a coach that has given his lead runners over 260 carries a season, which has netted 1,200 yards on average. Before injuries derailed his 2018 campaign, Marshawn Lynch touched the ball 20 times per game. One can argue that Jacobs is better equipped for pass catching work than Lynch was, which will probably result in Jacobs getting 15 to 20 opportunities a game as his floor. Shortly after selecting Jacobs, Gruden said, “If you’re listening, Josh, I encourage you to get some rest, because we’re gonna run you a lot. We’re gonna give you a great opportunity.”

In terms of the offense, it’s clear that Jon Gruden wants a balanced offense to keep the pressure off Derek Carr. Last year, Oakland passed 51 percent of the time and ran it 49 percent. Even with the additions of receivers Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams, expect the Raiders to be a run-heavy team. Even if Oakland passes more than we expect, Josh Jacobs has acumen as a pass-catching back and will have a sizeable target share.

JACOBS IS JUST BETTER

The presence of Isaiah Crowell would have given fantasy managers pause about Jacobs getting the bulk of the work immediately, but Crowell tore his Achilles tendon and is out for the year. The team re-signed veteran Doug Martin after Crowell's injury, but he's a depth player at this point in his career. Speaking about his new role as a mentor to Josh Jacobs, Martin said, "Yeah, it's not something I'm used to but it's something that I want to do. I've been in the whole spectrum of good-to-bad in this league and if I can teach somebody, if I can teach Josh on what to do, what not to do, how to stay in on the narrow path and just keep his eye on the goal, then I'm here for that.” Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington are smaller, shiftier backs that can spell Jacobs and Martin when needed but aren't real threats to earn a lead role. Chris Warren III is an intriguing developmental project who may eventually earn a bigger role, but spending much of last season on injured reserve puts a bit of a damper on his impact for this year.

2019 PROJECTIONS

OTHER VIEWPOINTS

ESPN’s Matthew Berry is among the highest in the industry on Jacobs:

“I believe Jacobs has a ton of potential in fantasy, and I mean this year, RB1 potential. Believe it or not, he’s my RB10 today as of this taping in mid-June and he should be climbing on your draft board, as well.”

Gary Davenport wrote for FanTrax.com that he believes Jacobs could flirt with RB1 numbers:

“At the end of the day, drafting Josh Jacobs as a fantasy RB1 in redrafts in 2019 is reaching, and even in dynasties you’d be paying retail (plus)—drafting Jacobs at his ceiling. That’s a fantasy no-no. But if you can get Jacobs outside the top 20 in either format or in the RB15-RB20 range in dynasties you’ll be fulfilling one of the mantras of successful fantasy drafting—taking a young player with upside in a spot where he has a real shot at outperforming his asking price.”

Henry McKenna of USA Today Sports likes the cost versus production proposition that Jacobs presents:

“...Jacobs will be a back worth owning in just about every format during the 2019 fantasy football season. Above all, he should see significant volume as a ball-carrier and pass-catcher. That’s one of the most important qualities in a running back. He will likely be efficient with those touches, judging from what he did in Alabama.”