Odell Beckham: Fantasy Team Killer or Winner?

Photo: USA Today Sports

New team, same outlook. Odell Beckham Jr is one of the most talented players in the league, and he is automatically a top-tier fantasy wideout. It doesn’t matter for which team he is playing. At least that is the conventional wisdom.

There is truth in that wisdom, but there is more to the story. Injuries have derailed many an elite player’s careers and ruined fantasy seasons galore. Odell Beckham is healthy as far as we know heading into the 2019 preseason, but he has not been the most reliable fantasy option when it comes to being on the field in recent years.

All that makes Beckham a better best-ball than traditional fantasy option. But is he worth a top pick?

Elite or Bust

That moment is seared in our memories. You know the one. Beckham flying down the sideline against the Cowboys, seeing the ball come his way, adjusting mid-stride, twisting and leaping and reaching out to snag the greatest catch we have ever seen.

Indelible moments like this can cement a player’s greatness in the minds of millions. What Beckham did for fantasy owners as a rookie has done the same for him as a fantasy force. After missing the first four games of his career due to a hamstring pull -- more on that later -- New York's 2014 first-round pick went supernova. He finished fifth in fantasy scoring at his position and handily led his contemporaries in per-game scoring. He has been a first-round fantasy pick ever since.

Beckham is no doubt one of the best wideouts in the game, but his fantasy production has never quite matched the hype since his first year. Injuries or not, Beckham has never finished better than fourth overall in fantasy scoring. Of course, that's nothing to sneeze at, but never quite meeting value -- and, in some years, far from it -- is concerning enough. In recent years, Beckham has burned fantasy owners, through no fault of his own, of course.

Risk-and-Reward

Injuries have plagued the star wideout in recent seasons. Indeed, he has only played a full season once thus far in his career, and he only played 16 of a possible 32 games in the past two years. Leg injuries have felled Beckham on many occasions, including a broken ankle in 2017 and quad hematoma to end his 2018 season. How much these feed into each other or affect his explosiveness is for someone more medically qualified to answer, but the pattern exists -- Beckham is a good bet to miss some amount of time in 2019.

There is some good news buried in the bad, though, and that is Beckham’s fantasy scoring efficiency when he does see the field. Injuries cutting his 2017 season to just four games, Beckham was still fourth in per-game scoring. In spite of a horrible passing offense last year, Beckham managed to pace ninth in per-game scoring.

Target Competition

Eli Manning didn’t have many mouths to feed in New York. Before Saquan Barkley arrived last season, Beckham was Option Nos. 1-3 in that offense. Barkley stole some of those looks, but Beckham was the clear-cut top target when he was healthy. Is that the case anymore in Cleveland?

Here is how the target count shook out last season on the Browns roster (min. 25 targets):

To compare, Beckham still led the Giants with 124 targets despite missing four games. Rhett Ellison was fifth with 35 targets. Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram got their looks, but this isn’t your 2018 New York Giants roster.

Where does Beckham fit in here, and who else is affected? More importantly for this discussion, are his new teammates going to siphon some of his targets?

For starters, it’s hard to imagine Beckham losing significant target share, even to Landry. He is a stud receiver, he is going to get plenty of targets. He may not get 10-plus per game, but it will be close to what he is used to. More importantly, Baker Mayfield is a better quarterback than Eli Manning at this stage in their careers. Manning had a slightly higher completion percentage last season, but he also dumped it off to Saquon Barkley 122 times. That explains why Mayfield averaged almost two whole Intended Air Yards (IAY) per NFL.com’s Next Gen stats.

One thing is clear in all this: Landry’s statistics will be adversely affected. It’s hard to believe he will lead the team in targets if his former LSU teammate stays on the field most of the year. The Browns tried to get him the ball downfield more last season than the Dolphins ever did, and they did so with modest success. But despite those 148 targets, Landry wasn’t able to top 1,000 yards, and he only got into the end zone four times. As has been the case throughout his career, Landry needs volume to produce, and he is getting a lower target share in 2019.

The Intangibles

Diva? Perhaps. Mercurial? That may be a better term. Enigmatic? At times.

Beckham has been a magnet for criticism since he stormed the league in 2014. His talent has often been eclipsed by off-field shenanigans, deserved or not. Even now, Beckham is embroiled in off-season controversy as he chose to skip voluntary workouts in spite of needing to learn a new playbook. Will a false start lead to a slow start to his 2019 campaign?

On the flip side, how will the quality of his targets improve? Manning is in the process of being put out to pasture for good reason. Baker Mayfield, meanwhile, was a revelation as a rookie who should only get better as he develops. This isn't necessarily intangible, but we won't have hard data until he starts throwing regular-season passes. For now, the fair assumption is Beckham is getting an upgrade at quarterback. This is probably good for his efficiency if not his overall fantasy scoring.

Projections

What Others Are Saying

CBS Sports is concerned Beckham might not see the target count he has enjoyed thus far in his career:

Landry led the team with 149 targets last year, but his target rate cratered when Kitchens and Mayfield took over. He had double-digit targets seven times in the team's first eight games, but not once with Kitchens calling plays. Beckham should certainly demand more attention than Landry, but it's not yet known if he'll receive the 10.5 targets per game he received in New York.

Here is what the Shark Pool recently had to say about Beckham

Since his rookie season of 2014:

• 92.8 yards per game - Places him 3rd in the NFL over that time span
• 10.5 targets per game - NFL rank 3rd
• 6.6 receptions per game - NFL rank 4th
• 44 receiving TDs - NFL rank 3rd
• Only player in modern SB era who has had two 1,000 yard receiving seasons in 12 games or fewer.

He is 100 receiving yards from passing Julio Jones for most receiving yards in first 60 NFL games, Beckum has played 59 games so it is possible he sets that record.

Michael Beller of SI.com seems unconcerned about Beckham’s target count:

Yes, Landry will command a larger target share than any receiver Beckham ever played with during his Giants tenure. Still, this is Odell Beckham. This is not a guy you squeeze for anyone. The backfield will secure a large touch share, as well, but no larger than Saquon Barkley received last season. Beckham has averaged 10.6 targets per game in his career, and he should hit that mark again this season. Those targets will have a lot more value coming from Mayfield in the Browns’ offense than they ever did coming from Manning in the Giants’ offense.

Final Thoughts

Talent nothwithstanding, Beckham is not going to enjoy the same target share he is used to. He is also a bigger injury risk than many of his fellow wideouts throughout the league. However, much like Calvin Johnson in his prime, those injuries do not diminish his value given how good Beckham is when he is on the field. If we can hope and assume he will only miss a handful of games at most, Beckham is still worth rostering with a high pick.

Beckham is currently being drafted as a high second-round pick and the fifth receiver off the board on average. That sounds about right at this stage in the preseason, but his ADP will only go up if he gets hyped by the media or shows out in preseason games. Drafting Beckham almost requires solid depth at the receiver position, which could mean a sacrifice elsewhere on your roster.