To win your league, you need overachievers. Not every fairy tale will have a happy ending, but to justify a pick, you should at least be able to tell yourself a story about how a player can vastly exceed expectations. Here’s one player from each team that can do just that.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills
Devin Singletary, RB - This one is a bit of a stretch because it probably requires LeSean McCoy’s release or trade, but there's a non-zero chance of that happening. Frank Gore and T.J. Yeldon could make this a frustrating committee in any even, but Singletary is dirt cheap in redraft and was getting some first-team snaps in the spring. With a good summer and forward-looking personnel management, he could be in line to lead the backfield in touches.
Miami Dolphins
Kenyan Drake, RB - All that’s required for Drake to hit big is Chad O’Shea and the Dolphins using him the way he was used in December 2017. Kalen Ballage is still pretty raw and Drake is in the last year of his contract. If the rebuilding front office wants to see if Drake is worth a cheap running back franchise tag or market extension before free agency, using him extensively is a good way to get informed on that question.
New England Patriots
Damien Harris, RB - Sony Michel’s knee is already an issue. It calmed down last year enough for him to be a fantasy success, but who says this year will be the same? Perhaps the Patriots selecting Harris is a sign that they are less than confident in Michel’s ability to hold up? Harris can be just as good as Michel was in the Blount/Green-Ellis role last year.
New York Jets
Robby Anderson, WR - Anderson looked like a budding big play #1 riffing with his young quarterback late last year. He’s in a contract year and could elevate his game to lofty levels, especially if Sam Darnold is given a long leash to extend and create plays under new head coach Adam Gase.
AFC South
Houston Texans
Keke Coutee, WR - You knew this was where I was going, right? Coutee wasn’t 100% at any point last year and still did some impressive things for fantasy and the record books as a rookie. Will Fuller has been out while he’s recovering from ACL surgery, while Coutee has been building an even better connection with Deshaun Watson. His fifth gear will add a vertical and run after catch dimension to his game that we didn’t get to see last year.
Indianapolis Colts
Jack Doyle, TE - Doyle has been a solid TE1 with Andrew Luck, and even without Andrew Luck. As long as he’s healthy, his blocking should keep him on the field more than Eric Ebron, and Luck getting him enough targets to get him above the low bar for TE1 production will ensue. If you wait at tight end and shoot for a high floor over a high ceiling, Doyle is your guy.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Leonard Fournette, RB - His injury history, sometimes shaky standing with the team, and likelihood of playing on a mediocre at best team is scary after game scripts fueled him to strong RB1 numbers in his rookie year, but he will have a chance to be the centerpiece of an offense that could be in a lot of low scoring games if the defense regains its form. He could also be a target hog in a passing game that lacks established wide receivers or a good receiving tight end. He’s one of many backs going in the third round that could return first-round value.
Tennessee Titans
Derrick Henry, RB - Perhaps this is the year that Henry gets 20 carries a game, every game. If the defense keeps games close enough, his lack of passing game involvement won’t be as material a cap on his weekly and season-long value. We’ve seen how the dam can break if Henry gets enough running starts at NFL defenses. First-round value is in his range of outcomes
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Justice Hill, RB - Hill’s outlook isn’t that different than Darrell Henderson’s. He has the speed to take any run to the house, and he should get enough touches to open the door to a regular 10-15 opportunities to create chunk plays in a running game that opens mack truck-sized holes. If Gus Edwards can average over five yards a carry in this offense, what can Hill do? Mark Ingram will turn 30 this year...
Cincinnati Bengals
John Ross, WR - Marvin Lewis never seemed to like John Ross, so we have to be encouraged by the coach's departure. Ross should play the Brandin Cooks role in the offense and we already know he has a knack for scoring. He has the pedigree and we haven’t seen him affirmatively play poorly and fail to make an impact for a prolonged stretch like say Laquon Treadwell or Josh Doctson. A new day in Cincinnati could unlock Ross’s potential.
Cleveland Browns
Antonio Callaway, WR - The Browns have the personnel to recreate the Tampa passing attack that Todd Monken helped author last year. Callaway will be in the DeSean Jackson, and while he’s accomplished a small fraction of what Jackson has, he’ll be facing the weakest outside corner and rarely see safety help on his side of the field. Callaway could be one of the most efficient producers at wide receiver in the league.
Pittsburgh Steelers
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR - A second-round pick that produces elite numbers is a massive ADP win even though it’s “only” one round of surplus production. Smith-Schuster has a significant downside with the possibility that defenses bracket him and force Ben Roethlisberger to lean on other options, but there’s no rule that Roethlisberger can’t target Smith-Schuster 200 times or more. Some of those could end up being ill-fated interceptions, but Roethlisberger can also extend plays and will be looking to Smith-Schuster more often than he probably should. Double-digit catch ceilings will remain in play every week and may come a lot more often than last year when Smith-Schuster posted three such games. Vance McDonald also qualifies here.
AFC West
Denver Broncos
Emmanuel Sanders, WR - The odds seemed to be stacked against Sanders making an early impact this year - or even any impact - after he tore his Achilles late in the season. The team chose not to put him on the PUP list and most accounts have him ahead of schedule. If he can be ready to go full speed in September and get on the practice field in August, Sanders should easily establish himself as Joe Flacco’s favorite target because of his precise route running, outstanding hands, and reliability compared to the youngsters at the other wide receiver positions. Flacco has quickly acclimated to new veteran receivers like Derrick Mason, Steve Smith, and John Brown over the course of his career - Sanders should be next.
Kansas City Chiefs
Damien Williams, RB - This running back situation has been producing RB1 numbers on the reg going back to Spencer Ware’s hot start to 2016 before his concussion. Williams didn’t slow down that pace at all, and the team is showing complete confidence in him. If he plays all 16 games, Williams should yield first-round value at a second or third round price.
Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Jackson, RB - The Melvin Gordon holdout looms over this backfield, but the Chargers should be confident that they will be fine without him, after all, they were last year. Austin Ekeler qualifies for this piece to an extent, but his ADP is already into the seventh round in the wake of Gordon not showing for camp. Jackson should have similar value to Ekeler if Gordon misses time, and he comes at a fraction of the cost.
Oakland Raiders
Josh Jacobs, RB - Do you remember what Jon Gruden did to Cadillac Williams after the Bucs took him in the first round? Jacobs has a skillset to stay on the field for all three downs, and a coach who isn’t subtle or nuanced in his strategy. Jacobs is sometimes falling to the fourth round but has a first-round value ceiling.