This article will take a weekly look at players who are either undervalued or overvalued in a given week. The outlier values are calculated by a comparison between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the initial weekly Footballguys rankings. Both sources are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, the matchup of the week, or short-term situation. Now, let's look at this week's outlier players.
Note: Week 12 will be the last article of the season as the Top 200 rankings converge on the weekly rankings.
Quarterback
- Top 200 ranking: 32
- Weekly ranking: 4
- Difference: +28
Jackson and the Ravens host the lackluster Raiders this week. This is an Oakland defense that made rookie Josh Rosen look like an All-Pro selection last week. Jackson’s rushing ability should help again this week.
- Top 200 ranking: 34
- Weekly ranking: 1
- Difference: +33
Winston came on in relief of a struggling Ryan Fitzpatrick last week. We love his chances of an elite fantasy performance against San Francisco. Eli Manning put up great numbers against the 49ers two Thursdays ago. Winston should easily eclipse those numbers.
- Top 200 ranking: 3
- Weekly ranking: 8
- Difference: -5
Rodgers has played well this season, even with much of a supporting cast. The game against the Vikings will be a tough matchup, especially with the contest played in Minnesota. The Packers have been riddled with injuries and most expect a coaching change this offseason. Things could go downhill quickly.
- Top 200 ranking: 8
- Weekly ranking: 18
- Difference: -10
Wilson has played much better of late, especially at home. We are not expecting a strong outing for the Seahawks passing game at the Panthers this weekend. Carolina is reeling from the loss to Detroit and will want to slow down the Seattle passing attack.
Running Back
- Top 200 ranking: 30
- Weekly ranking: 12
- Difference: +18
Breida has been explosive since getting healthy. We like his shot at a fantasy RB1 performance against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is yielding an average of 30 PPR points each game. If the average holds, Breida should see the bulk of the running back touches. Saquon Barkley lit up this defense a week ago. Breida will have opportunities this weekend.
- Top 200 ranking: 12
- Weekly ranking: 8
- Difference: +4
White will see ample touches against a lacking Jets team. New York seems to have given up on the season and coach Todd Bowles. We like the Patriots chances of being refreshed and on point after the bye week.
- Top 200 ranking: 16
- Weekly ranking: 23
- Difference: -7
Lewis and the Titans running game should feel the impact against the Texans if quarterback Marcus Mariota is limited or misses the contest. Blaine Gabbert is not good enough to keep a quality defense honest. Houston will be focused on stopping Lewis.
- Top 200 ranking: 20
- Weekly ranking: 25
- Difference: -5
Richard was lauded by coach Gruden for his performance against the Cardinals last week. With the upcoming game in Baltimore, we do not like his chances against the top defense minimizing PPR fantasy points to running backs. Richard is one of the only play-makers left for the Raiders. Baltimore will look to keep him in check.
Wide Receiver
- Top 200 ranking: 24
- Weekly ranking: 16
- Difference: +8
The Bengals face their in-state rival, the Browns, this week. Cleveland gives up the sixth-most PPR points to opposing wide receiver units, a whopping 41 points per contest. With A.J. Green looking like he may play, it is great news for Boyd, who has struggled against opposing top cornerbacks. Boyd could rebound from several middling performances.
- Top 200 ranking: 17
- Weekly ranking: 10
- Difference: +7
With the short week, we do not expect Marvin Jones to play on Thanksgiving. This should give Golladay more targets against the Bears. Detroit is grooming Golladay to be the team’s true WR1, something not seen in the Motor City in several years.
- Top 200 ranking: 22
- Weekly ranking: 51
- Difference: -29
We are unconvinced that Green is healthy and will play at full strength against the Browns. At best, he should be a decoy. Fantasy players should not have confidence in Green’s health. The Bengals are desperate for a victory ad Green is rushing back to the field.
- Top 200 ranking: 27
- Weekly ranking: 32
- Difference: -5
Jeffery has been negatively impacted by the arrival of Golden Tate and the lack of precision by Carson Wentz. The Eagles play the Giants in what should be a better game for the Philadelphia running game than the air attack. Philadelphia should not have to air it out much in the contest.
Tight End
- Top 200 ranking: 10
- Weekly ranking: 5
- Difference: +5
Hooper has stepped up his game in 2018. The game in New Orleans should be high scoring this week. The weakness of the Saints defense is against the pass. Hooper has upside of 50 receiving yards and multiple touchdowns as Atlanta passes often to keep pace with Drew Brees and company.
- Top 200 ranking: 6
- Weekly ranking: 3
- Difference: +3
Washington will go the rest of the season with Colt McCoy under center. He looked for Reed last week after coming into the game against Houston. The Thanksgiving contest against Dallas should be low scoring with Reed leading the team in targets and receiving yards. The Cowboys defense has played well of late and will be looking to draw even in the division with a win.
- Top 200 ranking: 13
- Weekly ranking: 20
- Difference: -7
The Jets passing game has been off the past few weeks. We do not like the chances of Herndon emerging this week against the Patriots. He is a good young player but will have limited upside this week.
Thank you for reading. Week 12 will be our last of the 2018 series. Feel free to (email me) with feedback. Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIn, and Google+, so you can ask me questions on one of these as well.
