As sports gambling becomes more mainstream, more and more people are looking for insight on what games to bet on and what lines to take. One approach is to look at the ‘popular’ lines, where people follow the crowd and bet on the games that everyone else is betting. This ‘Go with the Flow’ mentality can provide a sense of security because if a lot of other people are doing it, there must be something there.
But sometimes the public can have it wrong. Sometimes the flow of the water leads to a waterfall. Sometimes, it’s better to go against the flow – or maybe even avoid the flow completely. In this series, we’ll look at some of those situations, and give you our thoughts behind why it might be good to fade the public trend and look for other opportunities.
The final week of the season is all about the playoffs and next season. Teams that are in the playoffs with no way to improve their position rest their starters. Teams fighting for a better playoff spot will play hard. Teams fighting for a playoff spot will play as hard as possible because it’s win or go home. Teams without playoff hopes want to stay injury-free and look to build toward next season.
Vegas lines try to reflect this and that creates some opportunities for sharp players to make smart contrarian plays.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS
Public Trend – 62% of the public bets favor Los Angeles
The Rams need this win to secure a 1st round playoff bye. Meanwhile the 49ers are already looking toward next season. The Rams hit a speed bump, losing to Chicago and Philadelphia back to back, but they are back at full speed, rolling over the Cardinals on the road last week 31-9. They are 12-3 on the season and 6-1 at home. Their offense averages almost 32 points and 424 yards per game. The 49ers are struggling to find bright spots to this season after Jimmy Garoppolo tore his ACL in week 3. They are 0-7 on the road this season (2-5 against the spread) and just 3-7 in their last 10 games. They averaged just 13 points in their last three road games, and were held to three field goals at home against the Bears last week. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five NFC West games and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against the NFC.
Why you may want to fade the trend.
The Rams are banged up, and definitely need the first round bye. Todd Gurley hasn’t practiced in a couple weeks and will probably not play this weekend. The line has moved to 10 points now and while the Rams need to win, they shouldn’t go 100% to win against the 49ers. They may be 6-1 at home this season, but they are just 2-4-1 ATS at home (0-4-1 in their last five home games) and 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 games. The 49ers are scrappy and the nine points they scored against the Bears doesn’t reflect just how close they came to winning last week. The beat the Broncos and the Seahawks the two weeks before that. The 49ers won’t roll over and play dead in this game and the Rams won’t go full tilt for 60 minutes if they can help it. This could very easily turn into a close win for the Rams, but the 49ers cover with the two score spread.
CHICAGO BEARS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports