As sports gambling becomes more mainstream, more and more people are looking for insight on what games to bet on and what lines to take. One approach is to look at the ‘popular’ lines, where people follow the crowd and bet on the games that everyone else is betting. This ‘Go with the Flow’ mentality can provide a sense of security because if a lot of other people are doing it, there must be something there.
But sometimes the public can have it wrong. Sometimes the flow of the water leads to a waterfall. Sometimes, it’s better to go against the flow – or maybe even avoid the flow completely. In this series, we’ll look at some of those situations, and give you our thoughts behind why it might be good to fade the public trend and look for other opportunities.
This week is a tough one and the public backing really feels like the ‘right’ play in many games this week. We call out the ones that have some potential for an upset, but this may be the week to ‘follow the trend’ in some cases.
NEW YORK GIANTS AT WASHINGTON
Public Trend – 70% of the public bets favor New York
Fresh off their upset win against Chicago at home, the public is all over Eli Manning and the Giants as they head into Washington, where they are pulling people out of the stands to play quarterback at this point. Washington is also playing on a short week after giving up 14 points to the Eagles in the 4th quarter on Monday night. The Giants are a surprising 6-3-1 against the spread over their last 10 games, and are 5-1 ATS on the road. Washington’s offense has been banged up at just about every position and they are fading fast as the season winds down. They are averaging less than 20 points and just 323 total yards of offense per game.
Why you may want to fade the trend.
This has classic ‘over-reaction’ written all over it. The Giants played well at home against a good team who had a backup quarterback under center. Washington collapsed on Monday night and are on their third quarterback in the last few weeks. But the Giants are just 4-8 on the season, and average just 22 points per game on offense. They are good against the spread, but so is Washington, who is 6-4 ATS over their last 10 games and 4-2 at home. Jamison Crowder and Chris Thompson are both healthy, and back into the start lineup, giving Washington a little more stability. Adrian Peterson also continues to perform at a high level and Washington still has a reasonable chance to make the playoffs if they can turn things around. With the line moving almost 5 points in their direction, a great contrarian play might be to back the home dog against a weak division opponent.
CAROLINA PANTHERS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS
Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports