As sports gambling becomes more mainstream, more and more people are looking for insight on what games to bet on and what lines to take. One approach is to look at the ‘popular’ lines, where people follow the crowd and bet on the games that everyone else is betting. This ‘Go with the Flow’ mentality can provide a sense of security because if a lot of other people are doing it, there must be something there.
But sometimes the public can have it wrong. Sometimes the flow of the water leads to a waterfall. Sometimes, it’s better to go against the flow – or maybe even avoid the flow completely. In this series, we’ll look at some of those situations, and give you our thoughts behind why it might be good to fade the public trend and look for other opportunities.
CLEVELAND BROWNS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS
Public Trend – 61% of the public bets favor Cincinnati
Neither of these teams is playoff worthy, but the Bengals are the better of the two and are playing at home. They are 3-2 at home this season, but are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against division rivals and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against the AFC. They Average more then 25 points per game and are facing the Browns who rank 31st in total defense, allowing almost 420 yards per game to their opponents. The Browns are averaging 21 points per game this year and are 0-4 on the road.
Why you may want to fade the trend.
A.J. Green was projected to be back for this game, but he has not practiced at all this week. The Bengals have the worst defense in the league, allowing more than 31 points and almost 450 yards per game to their opponents. Last week they allowed 119 rushing yards to Lamar Jackson and 115 rushing yards to Gus Edwards. The Browns are ranked 17th in offense, posting 355 yards per game compared to the Bengals who post just 329 yards per game. The Browns are 6-4 against the spread this season and are 2-2 against the spread on the road.
OAKLAND RAIDERS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS
Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports