As sports gambling becomes more mainstream, more and more people are looking for insight on what games to bet on and what lines to take. One approach is to look at the ‘popular’ lines, where people follow the crowd and bet on the games that everyone else is betting. This ‘Go with the Flow’ mentality can provide a sense of security because if a lot of other people are doing it, there must be something there.
But sometimes the public can have it wrong. Sometimes the flow of the water leads to a waterfall. Sometimes, it’s better to go against the flow – or maybe even avoid the flow completely. In this series, we’ll look at some of those situations, and give you our thoughts behind why it might be good to fade the public trend and look for other opportunities.
CLEVELAND BROWNS VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Public Trend – 77% of the public bets favor Kansas City
Kansas City has the #3 offense in the league averaging more than 425 yards and over 36 points per game. Kansas City is 7-1 ATS and 4-0 ATS on the road. Cleveland has improved a lot over last season, but their team is still struggling. Their defense is ranked 27th in the league, allowing more than 414 yards and more than 26 points per game. Their offense is also struggling, averaging just over 324 yards just over 21 points per game. They’re also coming off an embarrassing 33-18 blowout against division rival Pittsburgh.
Why you may want to fade the trend.
Despite their struggles, Cleveland is actually 5-3 against the spread and 3-1 at home. They fired Hue Jackson this week, who was just 3-36-1 as Cleveland’s coach over the three seasons. Gregg Williams isn’t Bill Belichick, but he should be an improvement over Jackson and the Browns will come out and play hard for their home crowd and new coach. The Chiefs are favored by more than a touchdown in this game, and will probably still win the game, but Cleveland is tough and the Chiefs give up a lot of yards (432.4) and points (25.6) per game. The Browns are going to be fired up for this game and the home crowd will be as well. Cleveland+8 looks like a great value play against the crowd.
BALTIMORE RAVENS VS. PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports