As sports gambling becomes more mainstream, more and more people are looking for insight on what games to bet on and what lines to take. One approach is to look at the ‘popular’ lines, where people follow the crowd and bet on the games that everyone else is betting. This ‘Go with the Flow’ mentality can provide a sense of security because if a lot of other people are doing it, there must be something there.
But sometimes the public can have it wrong. Sometimes the flow of the water leads to a waterfall. Sometimes, it’s better to go against the flow – or maybe even avoid the flow completely. In this series, we’ll look at some of those situations, and give you our thoughts behind why it might be good to fade the public trend and look for other opportunities.
A quick note before we dig into this week’s picks. Jeff Pasquino has a weekly column on betting against the spread called ‘For The Win’. Each week he gives his take on every NFL game, and makes his prediction on who will win or cover. At the end of the article, he calls out some of his favorite games and bets. Jeff’s been on a crazy hot streak as of late and it’s worth checking out if you’re looking to get a different take on which games to bet.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS AT NEW YORK GIANTS
Public Trend – 66% of the public bets favor Washington
The Giants are in free-fall, and they look and play like a team that has given up. They are 1-6 overall, and 0-3 at home against the spread. Their offense is averaging less than 20 points per game. Their defense wasn’t exactly top shelf, giving up 367 yards and more than 26 point per game. Then they traded Damon Harrison and Eli Apple away. They are also playing on a short week after a Monday night loss to the Falcons. Now they face a Washington team that is 4-2 against the spread and coming off a big home win against their hated division rival the Dallas Cowboys. Washington is in first place, looking to extend their lead with another much-needed division win. Their defense is ranked 5th in the NFL, allowing just over 325 yards per game. They are 3rd in the NFL in rushing yards allowed – 87 per game, and held Ezekiel Elliot to just 42 yards from scrimmage last week.
Why you may want to fade the trend.
The Washington offense is a banged up. Jamison Crowder, Adrian Peterson, Paul Richardson Jr, and Chris Thompson have all been limited or sitting out of practice. They’re 21st in total offense, posting just 337 yards per game and averaging just 21 points per game. Despite having two weeks to prepare and praying at home, the Cowboys missed a last second field goal to send the game into overtime. The Giants scored 14 points in the 4th quarter and nearly pulled off an upset against the Falcons. They are playing at home in a game which has moved to being a ‘pick em’. Washington is banged up and primed for a let-down after he near miss with the Cowboys. Look for the Giants to play tough in this game and the home team just might pull out the victory.
GREEN BAY PACKERS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS
Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports