Let's get to the picks...
Week 14 Picks
Kansas City (-3.5) vs. Oakland
It's not often that the Thursday nighter is the game of the week, but this may very well be. A division title hangs in the balance, and a slightly underrated Chiefs team is essentially thought to be a half point better than a slightly overrated Raiders team. Keep in mind, that's not a knock against either team, just a reflection of public sentiment. That half point bothers me, but Kansas City handled these guys last time and should do so again.
Pick: Chiefs
Detroit (-7.5) vs. Chicago
I think the Lions win comfortably, but the Bears with the backdoor cover when Matt Barkley runs in a score with 0:11 left to lose by a touchdown. And if this happens precisely like that, I'm changing my record to 200-0 for the season.
Pick: Bears
Miami (-2.5) vs. Arizona
Miami got exposed as a bit fraudulent last week against Baltimore, and Arizona seemed to find something in a really impressive win against a quality opponent. Obviously past performance is not predictive, but in this case I'm willing to bet (literally) that it was a very telling show by each of these teams and the directions they're headed in.
Pick: Cardinals
Carolina (-1.5) vs. San Diego
If the Chargers were getting half a point, they'd figure out a way to lose by 0.25
Pick: Chargers
Cincinnati (-5.5) at Cleveland
I never realized how much fun it is to bet against a team and have them never cover the spread. It's seriously the best. Why did it take me 12 weeks to get on board???
Pick: Bengals
Tennessee (-1.5) vs. Denver
Let's not get carried away with this Titans team. Sure they have played far better than expected and they're well-rested coming off the bye week. But the Denver defense is absolutely still an elite group, and should have little trouble keeping Mariota and Murray and company in check. At least enough to pull out the victory.
Pick: Broncos
Indianapolis (-6.5) vs. Houston
Oh look, an AFC South battle. How exci...(snooooooooooooooooze)
Pick: Colts
Washington (-1.5) at Philadelphia
If Washington had won last week, they would have gone into Philly and overlooked the young upstart group and kept this a close game. I have no basis for assuming that, but this is the kind of hard-hitting analysis you get from me. But since Washington lost, they should smash the crap out of Philly now. Again, this is my logic. Just roll with it.
Pick: Washington
Pittsburgh (-1.5) at Buffalo
Wouldn't it be just like Pittsburgh in recent seasons to play up to the level of their opponent one week, start to stake their claim for a division title, and then completely bumble their way through the following game against a highly inferior opponent? I feel like I've seen this show before.
Pick: Bills
Minnesota (-3.5) at Jacksonville
Hmmm, in a game like this I suppose the only logical thing to weigh is WHO CARES?!?
Pick: Vikings
San Francisco (-1.5) vs. New York Jets
Things are so bad in San Francisco, that the Bears went out and smashed them. The BEARS! A team that might be the 4th-worst team in the entire league illustrated just how much disparity there is between the crummy teams and the really wretched franchises. The Jets stink, but man these Niners are something else.
Pick: Jets
Atlanta (-5.5) at Los Angeles
Yeah, the Falcons are just a whole lot better. Julio or not.
Pick: Falcons
Seattle (-2.5) at Green Bay
We've made lots of mention in recent weeks about Green Bay finding something in the latter half of the season. They aren't dead just yet and all that. But Seattle certainly seemed to "find it" last week too, and against the defending NFC Champs. It's tough to play a more perfect game than that, and Seattle appears primed to close out the season in dominant fashion and peak right at playoff time. It's kind of their thing.
Pick: Seahawks
Tampa Bay (-2.5) vs. New Orleans
Pretty sure this is where the magic ride ends for Tampa. Unless you think Jameis can hang with Drew Brees in throwing 5 touchdowns and 400+ yards this weekend (please Drew? pretty please?)
Pick: Saints
Dallas (-2.5) at New York Giants
I don't think the Cowboys are going 15-1 this season, and a quick peek at the remaining schedule shows me that this feels like the most likely game to lose. I sure do wish I was getting another point because this feels like a field goal game in either direction, but I'll take the playoff team getting points at home 99 times out of 100.
Pick: Giants
New England (-7.5) vs. Baltimore
So over the past decade or so, there has been one team that's been more of a thorn in the side of the Patriots than any other. So now that New England is pretty banged-up, lost arguably their best player, and have had a couple of pretty uninspiring performances...and the other guys are rolling up victories and dominating playoff teams...why is this line so freakin high? Does Vegas know something I don't? Of course they do. One glance at the record below is enough evidence of that. But still, this makes no sense.
Pick: Ravens
BEST BETS: Bengals, Broncos, Seahawks, Ravens
LOCK: Denver Broncos
LAST WEEK
Overall: 7-8
Best Bets: 1-3
Lock of the Week: 1-0
YEAR TO DATE
Overall: 98-94 (51%)
Best Bets: 24-28 (46%)
Lock of the Week: 6-7 (46%)
POWER RANKINGS
Team Name W/L (Prv)
1. Cowboys 11-1 (1)
2. Patriots 10-2 (2)
3. Raiders 10-2 (3)
4. Seahawks 8-3-1 (4)
5. Chiefs 9-3 (7)
6. Falcons 7-5 (5)
7. Steelers 7-5 (9)
8. Broncos 8-4 (8)
9. Giants 8-4 (6)
10. Ravens 7-5 (11)
11. Lions 8-4 (12)
12. Redskins 6-5-1 (10)
13. Packers 6-6 (15)
14. Dolphins 7-5 (13)
15. Vikings 6-6 (14)
16. Bucs 7-5 (20)
17. Cardinals 5-6-1 (22)
18. Bengals 4-7-1 (23)
19. Saints 5-7 (16)
20. Chargers 5-7 (17)
21. Texans 6-6 (18)
22. Bills 6-6 (19)
23. Eagles 5-7 (21)
24. Colts 6-6 (25)
25. Panthers 4-8 (24)
26. Titans 6-6 (26)
27. Rams 4-8 (27)
28. Bears 3-9 (29)
29. Jets 3-9 (28)
30. Jaguars 2-10 (30)
31. 49ers 1-11 (31)
32. Browns 0-12 (32)