NBA Deep Dive November 3rd

Photo: USA Today Sports

Deep Dive – Thursday 11/3/16

Sacramento Kings at Orlando Magic

Vegas Line: ORL -1.5  
Total- 197

Sacramento Kings

Projected Lineup
PG- Ty Lawson ($4,900 FD, $5,100 DK)
SG- Arron Afflalo ($3,800 FD, $3,800 DK)
SF- Rudy Gay ($7,500 FD, $6,500 DK)
PF- Matt Barnes ($4,200 FD, $4,000 DK)
C- DeMarcus Cousins ($9,600 FD, $10,600 DK)

Despite the Sacramento Kings’ relatively decent start to the year, they are coming into this game as a 4-point underdog to an Orlando Magic team. The Magic being favored is a little peculiar because Sacramento is beating them in most statistical categories including the two most important categories of points scored, and points allowed. This is made more strange by Orlando sitting at 3^rd worst in the league at points scored in the paint, and 4^th worst in the league at second chance points which correlates with paint points scored because second chance points come from shot attempts such as tip ins. The paint is exactly where the Sacramento offense tries to create chances because their offensive system revolves around getting the ball to DeMarcus Cousins down low. Expect the Kings to continue business as usual by pounding the ball into the front court, and the Magic not being able to do much to stop all the scoring chances on the interior.

Top Plays – DeMarcus Cousins – Cousins has yet to repeat his big night in San Antonio last week, but tonight is an excellent opportunity for another showing.

Secondary Plays – Ty Lawson, Rudy Gay – Lawson’s price has stayed quite low despite making value almost every night.  He does not have a huge upside, but should make value by contributing across the board, so he is likely a better value play in cash than in a GPP.

Rudy Gay’s price has risen significantly across the industry after he has started the year out on fire. There was a time when Gay was almost a $9,000 player, and he is showing flashes of that so far this season. He is still a better play on DraftKings because of his price, but 45+ fantasy point game on Tuesday was not a fluke.

Orlando Magic

Projected Lineup
PG- Elfrid Payton ($6,200 FD, $6,000 DK)
SG- Evan Fournier ($6,000 FD, $6,100 DK)
SF- Aaron Gordon ($5,800 FD, $5,700 DK)
PF- Serge Ibaka ($5,600 FD, $5,700 DK)
C- Nikola Vucevic ($7,700 FD, $6,400 DK)

The Orlando Magic come into this game seeking their first win of the year against a Sacramento Kings team that does not appear to be the same Kings team daily fantasy players have come to expect. The Kings currently hold the 4^th slowest pace in the league while being slightly worse than average in opponent points allowed even though they are holding their opponents to a league low 78.2 shot attempts per game. This discrepancy is due to Sacramento’s league worst opponent free throw attempt rate which is 41.2% meaning that 41.2% of the 78.2 shots they allow per game are from free throws. Comparatively, the league median opponent free throw attempt rate is right around 38% with the Magic owning the league best at 18%. Taking that into consideration, a 41% free throw attempt rate is astronomical. The Kings being a better statistical team almost across the board notwithstanding, they are susceptible to giving up a large amount of points at the free throw line. Orlando ranks in the bottom 10 in free throw attempts, but they could pull this game out if they can find their way to the free throw line more often than their current average dictates.

Top Plays – Serge Ibaka, Aaron Gordon – Picking players who have the best chance of being fouled while driving to the basket is a winning strategy in this matchup. Both Ibaka, and Gordon have the best chance to pick up free points due to their play styles.

Secondary Plays – Nikola Vucevic on DraftKings – Vucevic’s price has come way down on DraftKings to the point where he is not too far above value play status. He is too cheap going against a Cousin’s defense that should allow for a respectable amount of midrange jump shots.

Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers

Vegas Line: Cle -10  
Total- 210

Boston Celtics

Projected Lineup
PG- Isaiah Thomas ($8,000 FD, $7,500 DK)
SG- Avery Bradley ($6,700 FD, $5,800 DK)
SF- Marcus Smart ($5,200 FD, $4,400 DK)
PF- Amir Johnson ($4,000 FD, $3,900 DK)
C- Tyler Zeller ($3,800 FD, $3,800 DK)

The Boston Celtics are coming into Cleveland on the second night of a back to back after winning at home against Chicago last night. The Celtics are currently a -9.5 underdog, so Las Vegas does not expect the game to be all that close, but Boston is not without merits tonight. They are holding their opponents to 41% shooting so far on the season, and have so far bolstered their previously porous interior to become the 11^th best team in the league at points given up in the paint. The Celtics are traditionally very hard on opposing back courts, so the 41% shooting is not a big surprise, but managing to round their front court defense into form is definitely something to take into account. If the Celtics want to win this game, they are going to have to take advantage of their 50% field goal average as the Cavaliers are allowing 87 shot attempts per game, so the Boston’s high usage shooters are who you would want to target.

Top Plays – Isaiah Thomas– Thomas’ price has remained relatively stable despite of starting the year off red hot. He currently owns a 59% shooting average from 2-point range, and a 40% 3-point average to go along with a 29.7% usage rate. He gets to take on a suspect Kyrie Irving defense tonight that should allow Thomas to continue to make, and exceed value.

Marcus Smart (If starting)- Jae Crowder went down with an injury, and immediately Marcus Smart saw a huge increase in minutes. Crowder is not going to play in this one, so Smart should again see 30-35 minutes.

Secondary Plays – Avery Bradley on DraftKings – Avery Bradley is shooting the lights out to begin the year also with 47%/52% from 2-point, and 3-point range respectively. His only drawbacks are the 21.4% usage he has been given, and his $6,700 price tag on FanDuel.

Marcus Smart (If coming off bench)

Tyler Zeller- With Al Horford out again tonight, Zeller should see 25-30 minutes, and his price is under $4k on both sites. He makes for a nice punt play, if you’re looking to spend up elsewhere.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Projected Lineup
PG- Kyrie Irving ($7,800 FD, $7,600 DK)
SG- J.R. Smith ($4,400 FD, $4,300 DK)
SF- LeBron James ($9,500 FD, $9,600 DK)
PF- Kevin Love ($7,400 FD, $7,100 DK)
C- Tristan Thompson ($4,300 FD, $4,200 DK)

Cleveland has looked exactly like the championship team they became last year. They are off to a perfect 4-0 start while having respectable numbers on both sites of the ball. Offensively, they are shooting almost 46% from 2-point range which is good for 11^th in the league, and 38% from 3-point range with ranks at 8^th. Defensively, they are allowing only 99.5 points per game on a league 6^th best 42.2% shooting even though they are giving up almost 88 shot attempts per game. The Boston team they are facing tonight is not giving up the front court points fantasy players have become accustomed to, but that could be attributed to Al Horford who is out with a concussion tonight. The Cavaliers should win this game, but the Celtics might keep it closer than Vegas would like to believe, so there should not be a blowout risk regardless of Cleveland being a 9.5-point favorite. Unfortunately for the Cavaliers, Boston is very good against opposing back courts, so Kyrie Irving will likely be neutralized.

Top Plays – Lebron James – He is almost always going to be a top play, but he should be able to dominate the paint with Boston lacking Al Horford tonight.

Secondary Plays – Tristan Thompson – This is another benefit of Al Horford being on the sidelines. More rebounds, and inside scoring should be available for Cleveland, so Thompson is a legitimate double-double threat.

Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks

Vegas Line: IND -3 
Total- 213

Indiana Pacers

Projected Lineup
PG- Jeff Teague ($6,200 FD, $5,800 DK)
SG- Monta Ellis ($5,900 FD, $5,500 DK)
SF- Paul George ($9,200 FD, $8,400 DK)
PF- Thaddeus Young ($6,200 FD, $5,900 DK)
C- Myles Turner ($6,900 FD, $7,300 DK)

Indiana Pacers

This game has made a significant shift from an opening 207 overall total having the Pacers as a 3.5-point favorite to a 212 overall total with Indiana down to a 2.5-point favorite, so it is now the second highest projected total on the slate, and has the smallest projected point spread as well.

The Pacers come into this game against the Bucks matched almost dead even in most statistical categories on both sides of the ball other than points allowed where the Pacers rank at 4^th worst giving up 112.5 points per game. This does not bode very well for an Indiana team allowing a 4^th worst shot attempts per game at 91.5, and a 3^rd worst shot percentage allowed per game at 42%. The best spot for the Pacers in this matchup is that while they sit at 11^th in the league in points scored in the paint, the Bucks are the 7^th worst, so the front court offense for the Pacers should be able to exploit Milwaukee whenever they choose. So far this year, Milwaukee has given up over 15% more fantasy points relative to the league average from the forward wing position into the interior while keeping the guards in check. Indiana is going to have to focus their offense on the forwards if they want to stay competitive in such a closely projected game.

Top Plays – Paul George on DraftKings, Myles Turner – Paul George is a bit too expensive on FanDuel, but he has the ability to put up huge games on any given night and is currently the team usage leader at 26.4%.

Myles Turner has had a few down games since starting the season off with a blast, but he should be able to dominate the interior matchups with Milwaukee.

Secondary Plays – Paul George (FD), Thaddeus Young – Separating the George picks on the individual sites is strictly a pricing move. Thaddeus Young is priced almost right, so there is not a bunch of upside, but he should be a good cash play.

Milwaukee Bucks

Projected Lineup
PG- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($9,700 FD, $9,000 DK)
SG- Matthew Dellavadova ($4,800 FD, $4,700 DK)
SF- Tony Snell ($3,800 FD, $3,400 DK)
PF- Jabari Parker ($5,800 FD, $5,600 DK)
C- Miles Plumlee ($3,500 FD, $3,000 DK)

As stated above, the Bucks rank within a couple of spots of the Pacers in nearly all statistical offensive, and defensive categories. Also, the place where the Bucks can best exploit the Pacers is in the paint considering Milwaukee is 2^nd in the league overall when it comes to scoring up front while Indiana is 11^th in the league at allowing opposing front courts to score. Alternatively, considering the Pacers allow so many shots to be taken per game with such a high percentage of those shots finding the bottom of the net, the Bucks might be able to create some shooting mismatches for their guards. From a fantasy perspective, the Pacers have been admirable defensively against guards, and centers, but have been exploited from the wings. The Bucks will roll with Antetokounmpo at the point who plays more of a driving style rather than a shooting style, but they should also be looking to take shots around the perimeter considering Indiana gives up the most 3-point attempts in the league.

Top Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo – He is very expensive on FanDuel, but has a good shot at exceeding value on both sites since is by far the focus of a Milwaukee team taking on a Pacers team that allows over 110 points per game.

Secondary Plays – Tony Snell – This is a flier status pick because Snell does not do all that much, and he has a low usage rate, but he does get minutes, and is the 3-point specialist for Milwaukee, so this matchup suits him well.

Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves

Vegas Line: Min -4 
Total- 208

Denver Nuggets

Projected Lineup
PG- Emmanuel Mudiay ($5,900 FD, $6,000 DK)
SG- Jamal Murray ($3,500 FD, $3,700 DK)
SF- Danilo Gallinari ($6,700 FD, $5,800 DK)
PF- Nikola Jokic ($5,900 FD, $6,800 DK)
C- Jusuf Nurkic ($5,600 FD, $6,500 DK)

This is a matchup that does not favor the Nuggets very well in fantasy. The overall total is projected to be over 209, and the projected spread gives Minnesota a slight -3.5 advantage, but there are quite a few factors working against the Nuggets’ fantasy production.

This will be a pace way down for Denver because Minnesota has been playing at the 3^rd slowest rate so far this year. Positionally, Minnesota has been almost 20% better than league average at allowing fantasy production from every spot on the floor apart from Centers, but are 10^th in the league at giving up real points in the paint. Minnesota has also held their opponents to 96 points per game which is good for 5^th in the league while allowing only 42% shooting on just 79.7 shots per game. This is just not a very enticing matchup from the Denver side of the equation, but fantasy players will still target a lot of Nuggets, so the better GPP play might be to fade this team apart from Jusuf Nurkic, or Nikola Jokic who both spend time at an exploitable Center matchup.

Top Plays – Jusuf Nurkic – Minnesota has been giving up enough fantasy production to opposing centers to make this play work, and Nurkic’s price has not come up all that much during his hot start.

Secondary Plays –

Nikola Jokic – He gets the same front court matchup that Nurkic has, so both plays are viable.

Jamal Murray- Murray is filling in for the injured Gary Harris and Will Barton who are both expected to miss this game. The rookie from Kentucky has been largely unimpressive so far in limited action, but at minimum salary he only needs 15 points to pay off his price and is a streaky shooter. On a small slate, he makes for a nice punt play

Minnesota Timberwolves

Projected Lineup
PG- Kris Dunn ($4,900 FD, $4,900 DK)
SG- Zach LaVine ($6,000 FD, $6,200 DK)
SF- Andrew Wiggins ($6,300 FD, $6,100 DK)
PF- Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,600 FD, $7,900 DK)
C- Gorgui Dieng ($6,500 FD, $6,700 DK)

The Timberwolves are the players you want to target in this matchup. This will be a pace way up for Minnesota in a game against a Denver team that is one of the worst in the league at defending nearly all positions in both a real, and a fantasy sense. On the season, the Nuggets rank 21^st in overall points allowed at 107.3 while allowing a 4^th worst 51.3 points in the paint. They also allow the 3^rd most shot attempts per game at 92.7 with a 44.6% conversion rate. As for fantasy, some of their defensive numbers have been inflated because they have not yet gone up against any teams which depend on either their Centers, or Small Forwards for much at all which is not at all the case for the Timberwolves considering they use both Karl-Anthony Towns, and Andrew Wiggins heavily. Denver has given the other three spots on the floor about 25% more fantasy points than the league average. This game should not be a blowout by any means, but Minnesota should be gifted with a plethora of fantasy points available to all players.

Top Plays – Kris Dunn, Zach LaVine, Andrew Wiggins – All Timberwolves are in great spots tonight, but you their pricing means they are generally better suited for cash games since their prices do not offer them much upside for a GPP even though they should all have high floors. Kris Dunn is in another great spot here with Rubio out because his price is still depressed.

Secondary Plays – Karl-Anthony Towns, Gorgui Dieng

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Golden State Warriors

Vegas Line: GSW -11 
Total- 223

Oklahoma City Thunder

PG- Russell Westbrook ($12,200 FD, $12,900 DK)
SG- Victor Oladipo ($6,000 FD, $6,600 DK)
SF- Andre Roberson ($4,300 FD, $4,400 DK)
PF- Donatas Sabonis ($3,700 FD, $3,600 DK)
C- Steven Adams ($5,300 FD, $5,900 DK)

The Thunder are coming off a tough game against the Los Angeles Clippers last night that went all the way down to the wire. This might hinder their production somewhat, but this game could not be better on paper from a fantasy perspective. The Thunder are going against a Golden State Warriors team that plays 2^nd in pace behind only Oklahoma City, so there will be a lot of scoring chances to go around.  Also, the Warriors have been giving opposing forwards, and centers up to 30% extra fantasy production. They do remain tough on opposing guards though.

In a real sense, the Warriors allow the most shots in the league at 93.5 attempts per game with a 44.9% shooting average. They also give up the 5^th most points overall at 111.8, and the 10^th most points in the paint with 46. This should benefit the Thunder because they take the most shots in the league at 92.3, but only have a 42.8% shooting average meaning that both of those numbers should benefit in this matchup. Oklahoma is still likely to lose this game, but the shot attempts, and the fantasy production will be there.

Russell Westbrook was burned by his former teammate and has made some comments that make you believe that he has this date circled on his calendar. Westbrook who’s usage rate so far this season is a mind blowing 43.6 is going up against the team he knows well. Westbrook averaged 47.7 FanDuel points per game last year against Golden State, but that was with Durant in most of those games. Now that Durant is gone, he should see an uptick in those points and be able to exceed the 50 point threshold that you typically want from your superstars. The one concern with Westbrook is his turnovers so far this season as in his last two games he has turned the ball over an average of 8.5 times per game. At times he tries to do too much and gets sloppy with the ball.

Top Plays – Enes Kanter, Steven Adams, Russell Westbrook (FD)– These two generate much of the rest of the usage Westbrook leaves behind, and Kanter plays a large portion of his minutes when Westbrook is sitting, so the best exposure to the Thunder in this game comes from up front.

Secondary Plays – Russell Westbrook – Westbrook remains somewhat playable on FanDuel, but is just too expensive on DraftKings to put as a top play on a night with so few games limiting value choices in a matchup where he has historically averaged less than 60 fantasy points. He might be the highest scoring player tonight, but that might not be enough if you have to spend so far down in other positions.

Golden State Warriors

Projected Lineup
PG- Steph Curry ($8,600 FD, $8,800 DK)
SG- Klay Thompson ($5,700 FD, $6,300 DK)
SF- Kevin Durant ($9,700 FD, $10,200 DK)
PF- Draymond Green ($8,300 FD, $7,800 DK)
C- Zaza Pachulia ($3,900 FD, $3,700 DK)

This might shake out to be a bit of a fantasy trap game for the Warriors. The Thunder have held their opponents at all positions apart from the point guard to well below league averages, but they have not faced a team like the Warriors yet this season either.

Statistically, Oklahoma has only given up 96.5 points per game on a 3^rd best 41.8% shooting average, and they have covered the paint well enough to be in the middle of the league in scoring allowed from that part of the floor. They are also currently 3^rd in the league in total rebounds, so that might limit some of the Warriors scoring chances. Although, these averages may be a little inflated because they have played three bad teams in their first four games, so expect the Warriors to take all the shots they want while maintaining their league leading 113 points per game.

It is still quite early in the season to give an analysis of how Golden State is trying to run their offense with the addition of Kevin Durant, but it does look like Klay Thompson has only played about 2/3rds of his minutes alongside Stephen Curry, and 4/5ths of his minutes with Durant even though he has only been on the court for 10 total minutes without either of them. During those minutes, Thompson gets 23% usage with Curry taking 31%, and Durant 27%. This should signal that they are trying to keep a 3-point threat on the floor as often as they can by splitting up Curry’s, and Thompson’s minutes. There is some evidence behind this because Thompson is taking over 15 shots per game to go along with seven 3-point attempts. Curry, and Durant are still the plays here because they are being counted upon for the largest portion of Golden State’s production, but Thompson is still getting plenty of chances even though his shooting percentages have been off so far.

Top Plays – Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant – Curry is not having a very good fantasy year, but his price has been coming down, and he has historically played very well against Westbrook. His big night is still waiting to happen, but he is in a good spot for that to be in this matchup.

Kevin Durant is going against his former team after one of the most blockbuster signings since LeBron James took his talents to South Beach. The narrative for this game could not be greater, so expect him to put in every ounce of effort he can muster.

Secondary Plays – Klay Thompson - Oklahoma City has been tough on shooting guards so far, but Thompson will still be getting over 15 shots in this matchup, so he has a big night possible if his shot is falling.