HOUSTON ROCKETS AT CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
Line: Cleveland -9
Total: 218
Cleveland
Projected Team Total: 114
Average Points Per Game: 105.3 (11th)
Average Points Allowed Per Game: 92 (4th)
Team Pace: 100.57 (13th)
Projected Lineup
PG - Kyrie Irving ($7,800 FD)
SG - J.R. Smith ($4,400 FD)
SF - LeBron James ($9,900 FD)
PF - Kevin Love ($7,400 FD)
C - Tristan Thompson ($4,300 FD)
This is a FanDuel only game because the tip-off time was bumped up to accommodate for the World Series game being played next door.
Cleveland is a strange team to try to roster in this game. Normally, you could play just about anyone against the Houston Rockets, and expect a good return because they historically play extremely fast, and are very, very poor defensively. However, over the first week it appears they have shored up some of their glaring defensive weaknesses, and are sitting right in the middle of the pack in points allowed with a team pace in the bottom third of the league. This is much different than to what daily fantasy players have become accustomed.
On Cleveland's side of the ball, they are a little paced up from last year which is good, but they still sit at only 11th in points scored per game. They tend to spread the ball around quite a bit preferring to try to get close equal scoring production from Irving, James, and Love, so Cavaliers players usually need a little help in the peripherals department in order to make value. This is not good for players who fail to do much other than score.
All of that combined spells out betting the under on this game because a 218 total just seems a bit too high for a matchup that has a good chance of grinding down to a saunter with a Cleveland team that should still cover the spread, so do not expect the game to be close even if it is played relatively slowly.
Top Plays - Lebron James, Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson (value) - Guys who are expected to contribute in multiple categories
Secondary Play - Kyrie Irving - He will generally only get you real points, but he is still going up against James Harden, and anyone against Harden is always in play.
Houston
Projected Team Total: 105
Average Points Per Game: 104.3 (12th)
Average Points Allowed Per Game: 103.3 (13th)
Team Pace: 98.30 (22nd)
Projected Lineup
PG - James Harden (Listed as SG on FanDuel - $11,200)
SG - Eric Gordon ($5,200 FD)
SF - Trevor Ariza ($5,200 FD)
PF - Ryan Anderson ($5,300 FD)
C - Clint Capela ($4,600)
What a difference a few months off can make for a team that was an absolute mess on defense over the entire last year. Houston brought in Coach Mike D'Antoni, and moved James Harden out to the point. Their offense now centers around Harden spreading the ball out to all of the other shooters on the team while taking some pressure off of him in the scoring department. Their defense is not massively hemorrhaging points to all positions any longer, but they still are giving up big fantasy games to the wings, so that is something to take into consideration. Make no mistake though, this is Harden's team, and the rest of the guys on the Rockets are just role players. Since the have adopted a new style of play with Harden distributing the vast majority of the offense, it is difficult to pick who might go off against an opponent on any given night apart from Harden himself.
This game against Cleveland is not an idea matchup because the Cavaliers are good defensively all over the court, and the game has a good chance to grind down to a trickle. If the Cavs have one weakness though, it is still in the backcourt where they have allowed some big games from opposing guards thanks to the defense of Kyrie Irving.
Top Plays - James Harden - He is going against Kyrie Irving who is not at all known for defense, and he does not need real scoring in order to produce big games when against a team like the Cavaliers who are allowing the 4th lowest points in the league. The only caution is his price, but he still should make value.
Secondary Plays - None
ORLANDO MAGIC AT PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Line: Orlando -4
Total: 198
Philadelphia 76ers
Projected Team Total: 97
Average Points Per Game: 84.5 (30th)
Average Points Allowed Per Game: 103.5 (14th)
Team Pace: 102.54 (8th)
Projected Lineup
PG - Sergio Rodriguez ($4,700 DK, $5,100 FD)
SG - Gerald Henderson ($3,400 DK, $3,900 FD)
SF - Robert Covington ($4,800 DK, $4,700 FD)
PF - Dario Saric ($4,600 DK, $3,900 FD)
C - Joel Embiid ($5,700 DK, $4,500 FD)
Philadelphia is out to yet another woeful start sitting at 0-2 with a point differential of -19 through only two games while averaging just 84 points on offense. The whole team has been in flux for much of the past couple of seasons because they have not been able to find a reliable starting point guard, and their prized draft pick Joel Embiid has been sidelined for two years with lingering foot injuries, so both their front court as well as their back court has been by committee. The two bright spots at the very early parts of this season are that they might have found their starting point guard in veteran Sergio Rodriguez who has been out of the NBA for a few years, but has plenty of international experience. Additionally, Joel Embiid is finally healthy, and has already shown flashes of being the dominant player the 76ers were hoping to see while he rehabbed for two years. When Embiid is ready, he will be the focus of both the offense, and the defense.
Tonight is a good matchup against an Orlando Magic team that has struggled to stop the opposition from scoring, and does not rebound the ball all that well. This should mean more scoring for the 76ers which would account for the projected 13 points above their per game average, and it should also mean more peripherals across the board for all players.
Top Plays - Sergio Rodriguez, Joel Embiid - Rodriguez has been tapped to both score, and distribute the ball, so he has a good chance to exceed value against a so far defensively inept Magic team.
Embiid is having his minutes restriction softened somewhat, and is expected to play 24 minutes until further notice. He should be all over the glass during those 24 minutes, and has proven to be able to score in the mid-range almost at will. He is probably too expensive on DraftKings, but it would not at all be a surprise if he were to hit 7x value on FD.
Secondary Plays - Robert Covington - Some of the scoring pressure has been taken off him so far, but he is still going to be the number two, or number three option on offense when either Rodriguez, or Embiid are off the floor, and his price for this matchup is probably a little low on both sites.
Orlando Magic
Projected Team Total: 101
Average Points Per Game: 92.3 (28th)
Average Points Allowed Per Game: 107.0 (19th)
Team Pace: 98.99 (19th)
Projected Lineup
PG - Elfrid Payton ($5,600 DK, $6,000 FD)
SG - Evan Fournier ($6,000 DK, $6,000 FD)
SF - Aaron Gordon ($5,700 DK, $5,900 FD)
PF - Serge Ibaka ($5,600 DK, $5,500 FD)
C - Nikola Vucevic ($6,100 DK, $7,400 FD)
The Magic are off to a horrendous start this year sitting at 0-3 with no games that have even been all that close. They have failed to score the ball with only two teams in the entire league with a worse points per game average, and they have allowed the 12th most points against. They are simply not producing much on either side of the ball. Tonight is an excellent chance to start righting the ship against a banged up 76ers team that is still trying to find a real identity. Philadelphia has been giving up worse than the league average fantasy points to all positions, but especially to opposing front courts where their defense is still one to be targeted almost nightly, but this might not translate too well to fantasy tonight though because of Orlando's player's prices on both sites even this will be a good bump in pace for the Magic. If anything, their pricing dictates that the Magic are better suited for cash games tonight than they are GPP plays.
Top Plays - Nikola Vucevic - This is a DK only play because he is far too expensive on FD, but he should be able to make value at a $6,100 price tag.
Seconary Plays - Any other starter
LOS ANGELES LAKERS AT INDIANA PACERS
Line: Indiana -9
Total: 216
Los Angeles Lakers
Projected Team Total: 104
Average Points Per Game: 101.7 (16th)
Average Points Allowed Per Game: 107.7 (21st)
Team Pace: 103.24 (7th)
Projected Lineup
PG - D'Angelo Russell ($6,700 DK, $6,100 FD)
SG - Nick Young ($3,500 DK, $3,600 FD)
SF - Luol Deng ($4,700 DK, $4,900 FD)
PF - Julius Randle ($6,300 DK, $6,400 FD)
C - Timofey Mozgov ($4,200 DK, $4,000FD)
The Lakers are looking marginally better this year than in they have in the past few seasons. Even though their defense is still quite suspect, their offense is beginning to show signs of life which has helped them to be somewhat competitive so far this year. Unfortunately for the Lakers, they are going up against an Indiana Pacers team which looks to have sealed up some holes on their defense from a fantasy perspective. Even though the Pacers are giving up an almost league worst 114 points per game, they are still about 4% better than the league average across the board when it comes to positional opponents scoring fantasy points against them. This is not good news for a Lakers team that will rely heavily on scoring to create fantasy production as they rank in the bottom 10th in the league in both rebounding, and assists. If the shots are not falling for the Lakers tonight, they will be a huge bust in a real, and a fantasy sense. Even if those shots are falling, the Lakers are simply not very appealing because their main fantasy producers in D'Angelo Russell, and Julius Randle are priced too high for the matchup.
Top Plays - None
Secondary Plays - None
Indiana Pacers
Projected Team Total: 113
Average Points Per Game: 108.3 (7th)
Average Points Allowed Per Game: 114 (29th)
Team Pace: 101.42 (11th)
Projected Lineup
PG - Jeff Teague ($6,000 DK, $6,300 FD)
SG - Monta Ellis ($5,400 DK, $5,000 FD)
SF - Paul George ($8,300 DK, $9,200 FD)
PF - Thaddeus Young ($5,700 DK, $6,100 FD)
C - Myles Turner ($7,300 DK, $7,100 FD)
This Pacers team should be better than what their record currently dictates. They have a lot of talented guys who have been able to keep them in games, but while they are defensively apt against individual positions, they are still giving up 114 points per game average. It really does not matter how talented a team is if they are giving up that many points per night because that makes it impossible to win.
Thankfully for the Pacers, the Los Angeles Lakers are coming into town, and Indiana should have a field day all over the court. Los Angeles ranks in the bottom 10th in the league in every defensive statistical category, and they give up about 6% more points than the rest of the league to individual positional players. Pricing may not be ideal here, but with the way that Indiana spreads their offense there should be plenty of opportunity for everyone to contribute. They are also much a much better rebounding team than the Lakers, so there should be enough real scoring, and peripherals to go around.
Top Plays - Myles Turner, Paul George on DraftKings - Turner should have a field day here, and his rising price tag is not even a worry at this point. Paul George is a much better play on DraftKings because he is quite far underpriced in this matchup especially if the Lakers can keep it close.
Secondary Plays - Paul George on FanDuel, Monta Ellis - Paul George is $900 more expensive on FanDuel which puts him into the top tier category, but he still has all the tools to put up big numbers in this matchup. Monta Ellis is the one guy whose price has not yet become inflated, but he should be priced right around the rest of the $6,000 guys on the team, so he is far too underpriced going against the Lakers.
NEW YORK KNICKS AT DETROIT PISTONS
Line: Detroit -4
Total: 199
New York Knicks
Projected Team Total: 98
Average Points Per Game: 99.5 (23rd)
Average Points Allowed Per Game: 110.5 (25th)
Team Pace: 101.44 (10th)
Projected Lineup
PG - Derrick Rose ($5,600 DK, $5,700 FD)
SG - Courtney Lee ($3,800 DK, $3,700 FD)
SF - Carmelo Anthony ($7,500 DK, $7,500 FD)
PF - Kristaps Porzingis ($7,100 DK, $6,600 FD)
C - Joakim Noah ($5,000 DK, $4,200 FD)
This is likely to be a pretty ugly game on both sides of the ball from a fantasy standpoint, but more so from the Knicks. New York has completely revamped their entire team this season to give it more of a Big Three look in that they now have Derrick Rose, Carmelo Anthony, and Kristaps Porzingis leading the way for the vast majority of their offense. However, they are all the way down to 18th in the league in assists, are 8th worst in the league in actual points scored per game at 99.5 even though they play at the 10th fastest pace, so the Big Three era in New York appears to be very slow to start.
Tonight, the Knicks go against a Pistons team which has shown to be very good on defense so far as they only give up 91.3 points per game average due partly to their slow pace, but also because they are ranked 2nd in the league in total rebounding. Considering the Knicks have not shown very much promise on offense yet this season, and Detroit being much better than average against all positions defensively, but especially against the wings where main scorer Carmelo Anthony plays, New York just does not look very appealing in fantasy. They are not likely to score many real points, they have not shown they can distribute the ball for assist numbers, and the Pistons are far better rebounders, so the three main statistical fantasy categories are effectively nullified.
Top Plays - Joakim Noah - This is a contrarian play only because there are much better options at Center tonight, but if Detroit is weak anywhere, it is against opposing centers. Noah should be able to exceed value on both sites, but especially FD because he is price quite a bit lower.
Secondary Plays - None
Detroit Pistons
Projected Team Total: 102
Average Points Per Game: 99 (25th)
Average Points Allowed Per Game: 91.3 (3rd)
Team Pace: 97.39 (23rd)
Projected Lineup
PG - Ish Smith ($5,400 DK, $5,900 FD)
SG - Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($4,600 DK, $4,500 FD)
SF - Marcus Morris ($5,300 DK, $5,800 FD)
PF - Tobias Harris ($6,100 DK, $6,200 FD)
C - Andred Drummond ($8,200 DK, $8,400 FD)
Tonight's game will be a small bump in page for the slow playing Pistons, but that is likely the best thing to say about this matchup. The game should stay close, so there is very little chance of players missing their full allotment of minutes due to a blowout which is also something to mention, but the Knicks have so far to prove to play serviceable positional defense which has no real glaring holes.
Normally, Derrick Rose would be someone to pick on with opposing point guards, but Head Coach Stan Van Gundy does not use his back court to generate all that much offense instead choosing to work the ball into the interior where one of the forwards can score pretty much at will. This leaves the game pace still being relatively slow even though there is a small bump in pace from the quickness of the opposing offense against a defensively stout Knicks team that might give up overall scoring per game, but not enough positionally to make players fantasy relevant.
That said, there should be a decent bump in rebounding stats for Detroit because they are so much better at gobbling them up than are the Knick, so the better rebounders on the Pistons get a bit of an extra boost.
Top Plays - Andre Drummond, Marcus Morris on DraftKings - Drummond is the focus of the team, and
he is expected to lead the scoring, and rebounding nightly. The team total will not be that high, but he certainly could be in line for 20+ rebounds considering the Knicks poor rebounding prowess. Marcus Morris gets the call here for his price on DraftKings as well as his necessity to contribute real scoring as well as rebounds to be fantasy relevant which puts him in an excellent matchup tonight.
Secondary Plays – None
SACRAMENTO KINGS AT MIAMI HEAT
Line: Miami -3.5
Total: 200
Sacramento Kings
Projected Team Total: 99
Average Points Per Game: 102 (15th)
Average Points Allowed Per Game: 101.3 (12th)
Team Pace: 95.95 (27th)
Projected Lineup
PG - Ty Lawson ($5,500 DK, $5,100 FD)
SG - Aaron Afflalo ($3,700 DK, $3,700 FD)
SF - Rudy Gay ($6,200 DK, $7,300 FD)
PF - Demarcus Cousins ($10,400 DK, $9,900 FD)
C - Kosta Koufos ($3,100 DK, $3,500 FD)
The Kings are looking much better this year than they were last year by quite a long shot. They are playing much better defense clawing their way out of the basement all the way up to 12th in the league in average points allowed per game. They are also holding opponents to 46.3% shooting from the field with a league low 76.8 attempts per game. That kind of turn around is stunning to say the least, and it does not bode well for opposing offenses, or daily fantasy players targeting against the Kings because of prior experience.
The story on the offensive side of the ball has not differed greatly as DeMarcus Cousins is still by far the number one option with Rudy Gay being a distant second, and everyone else being somewhere down the line. Ty Lawson began the season has a great daily fantasy option, but his price has caught up to his production, so there is not all that much upside with rostering him any longer.
Tonight's matchup is against a good defensive moderately slow paced Heat team that ranks in the top 10 in all statistic defensive categories. This should mean a down tick in all fantasy categories for Kings players including the almost 40% usage DeMarcus Cousins.
Top Plays - Rudy Gay on DK - The Kings might have to rely on Gay shooting the ball with Miami's Hassan Whiteside clogging up the paint, but his price is far too expensive on DK after a couple of good games. He is still a very small amount underpriced on DK even with a sub-optimal matchup.
Miami Heat
Projected Team Total: 102
Average Points Per Game: 99.3 (24th)
Average Points Allowed Per Game: 99.7 (10th)
Team Pace: 98.43 (21st)
Projected Lineup
PG - Goran Dragic ($6,700 DK, $6,900 FD)
SG - Dion Waiters ($4,200 DK, $4,500 FD)
SF - Justise Winslow ($5,200 DK, $5,000 FD)
PF - Luke Babbitt ($3,100 DK, $3,800 FD)
C - Hassan Whiteside ($8,700 DK, $8,600 FD)
For as nearly impenetrable that the Heat have been on defensive, they are lacking on offense, and that is not because they are failing to generate shots. They are failing to hit the shots they generate. So far this year, Miami is 13th in average shots taken per game at 87.7, but they have only managed to connect on 44% from the field. Also, they are seemingly unable to create fouls as they rank 26th in the league with only 20 attempted per game. All of this lack of offense shows in that they have only been able to produce 99.3 points per game average which is not good at all for scorers. If you combine these pedestrian shooting averages with Sacramento's ability to hold opponents to a low number of shots, you are looking at a much lower score than what is projected. Miami is simply not a team to target tonight.
Top Plays - Hassan Whiteside - The one place to attack Sacramento is in rebounds considering they rank dead last in total rebounds per game. Whiteside is a rebounding specialist who only takes high percentage shots, and does not need real scoring to light up the fantasy scoreboards.
Secondary Plays - None
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES AT MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
Line: Minnesota -5
Total: 199
Memphis Grizzlies
Projected Team Total: 97
Average Points Per Game: 106 (10th)
Average Points Allowed Per Game: 104 (15th)
Team Pace: 95.47 (28th)
Projected Lineup
PG - Mike Conley ($6,600 DK, $6,800 FD)
SG - James Ennis ($4,600 DK, $4,400 FD)
SF - Jarell Martin ($3,000 DK, $3,500 FD)
PF - JaMychal Green ($4,600 DK, $4,700 FD)
C - Marc Gasol ($6,100 DK, $6,900 FD)
The Memphis Grizzlies do not appear to be the same team they have been in years past even though the personnel is largely the similar. They are exactly in the middle of the league in points allowed, and are ranked 8th in opponent shots attempted per game, but they are allowing a league 9th worst 46% on those shots. To go along with that statistic, they are also a 4th worst 31 free throw attempts per game. They are somewhat getting it done on offense though despite being 15th in the league at making shots from the field at only 44%. Part of this is because they are top-10 at getting to the free throw line, so their offensive points scored is a bit inflated if they are unable to draw those fouls.
As for the matchup, there are only two teams in the league which play slower than the Memphis Grizzlies, and they are going up against one of them tonight in the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Timberwolves have so far shown to be average in positional defense, but they are weakest at defending the point guard which is where the Grizzlies second leading scorer Mike Conley resides. If Memphis can continue to create shots even though Minnesota is only allowing 82.5 shots per game, the Grizzlies' scorers might be a viable option. Minnesota should give up enough peripherals to somewhat mitigate the lower scoring in the game.
Top Plays - Mike Conley, James Ennis - Mike Conley will be the focus of the offense, and he grabs enough peripherals to make him a viable threat for 5.5-6x value even with the slow game pace. Also, he is up against a rookie Kris Dunn making his first start for the Timberwolves. James Ennis is listed as SF on FanDuel, and is a value based play only, but has shown over 5x value potential even in slower paced games.
Secondary Plays - Marc Gasol - A slower paced game should fit him better, and he is the second primary option on offense. Minnesota is not great at rebounding the ball, so Gasol has a shot at double digit rebounds.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected Team Total: 102
Average Points Per Game: 100.5 (22nd)
Average Points Allowed Per Game: 104 (16th)
Team Pace: 94.32 (29th)
Projected Lineup
PG - Kris Dunn ($4,100 DK, $4,000 FD)
SG - Zach LaVine ($5,700 DK, $5,900 FD)
SF - Andrew Wiggins ($6,400 DK, $6,400 FD)
PF - Gorgui Dieng ($6,200 DK, $5,900 FD)
C - Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,500 DK, $8,800 FD)
The biggest story out of Minnesota is that first-round draft pick Kris Dunn will be making his first NBA start tonight as Ricky Rubio is out indefinitely with an elbow injury. This is one pick where you might have to chalk it up, and follow the field because his pricing is so low on both sites, and even though he is going against a veteran starter, he still averages about 1.0 fantasy points per minute in the season opener against the same Grizzlies team. It appears that it is time for the Timberwolves to completely hand the reigns over to their young players, so there might be some growing pains tonight as Dunn learns how to run the point.
The Timberwolves are a bit of a conundrum because they do not score a lot of points, have a main scorer, create many assists, or rebound the ball very well, but their players do tend to be quite productive regardless. That production is kind of spread out to everyone on the team though which is why they are priced so closely together. There is not all that much upside to anyone apart from Dunn, but everyone on the team has a mid-to-high floor, so they are all definitely in contention for cash game consideration.
Top Plays - Kris Dunn, Gorgui Dieng - Kris Dunn's price is just too low for a starting point guard who has already shown the ability to produce. Gorgui Dieng is the one player on the team who can exceed value in this matchup at his price.
Secondary Plays - All starters for cash games
MILWAUKEE BUCKS AT NEW ORLEANS PELICANS
Line: New Orleans -3
Total: 206
Milwaukee Bucks
Projected Team Total: 101
Average Points Per Game: 96.3 (27th)
Average Points Allowed Per Game: 104.3 (17th)
Team Pace: 99.37 (15th)
Projected Lineup
PG - Matthew Dellavedova ($4,200 DK, $4,600 FD)
SG - Giannis Antetokounmpo - ($8,900 DK, $9,600 FD)
SF - Tony Snell ($3,300 DK, $3,600 FD)
PF - Jabari Parker ($6,000 DK, $5,900 FD)
C - Miles Plumlee ($3,000 DK, $3,500 FD)
Tonight the Milwaukee Bucks get to play a game that will be way up in pace against a New Orleans Pelicans team that plays the second fastest in the league while also playing very little defense.
Unfortunately for daily fantasy players, the Bucks offense is really nothing to get excited over. They rank in the top ten in the league in both shots attempted, and assists, but they are only 23rd in shooting percentage, and rank second to last in free throw attempts, so they do not get to the line all that often. The matchup with the Pelicans should be just what the Bucks need to stabilize their shooting as New Orleans is in the bottom half of the league at both shots attempted, and field goal percentage along with being 25th in the league at free throws allowed.
On the defensive side of the ball, Milwaukee is a little worse than average at rebounding coming in at 17th in the league, but does create the 12th most turnovers, so some peripherals might be there for the taking along with their 8th most assists in the league. The shots, and the peripherals will be there, but it will be up to Milwaukee to capitalize.
Top Plays - Matthew Dellavedova, Greg Monroe - A fast paced game suits Dellavedova's play style. The Bucks run Antetokounmpo at the point which means that Dellavedova plays largely off the ball, but he can contribute in all categories. Greg Monroe is a strong choice from off the bench as the Pelicans give up almost 8% more fantasy points to the center position as compare to the rest of the league. Monroe should be able to rebound, and score whenever he likes, and his price is very reasonable on both sites.
Secondary Plays - Giannis Antetokounmpo - This play is better on DraftKings because he is cheaper, but he should be able to handle the Pelicans in all categories tonight. A triple double is well within the realm of reality, but even a small triple double on FanDuel might only be good for cash.
New Orleans Pelicans
Projected Team Total: 104
Average Points Per Game: 98.3 (26th)
Average Points Allowed Per Game: 109 (22nd)
Team Pace: 105.85 (2nd)
Projected Lineup
PG - Tim Frazier ($5,900 DK, $5,500 FD)
SG - E'Twaun Moore ($4,000 DK, $4,400 FD)
SF - Solomon Hill ($3,400 DK, $3,800 FD)
PF - Anthony Davis ($10,800 DK, $11,000 FD)
C - Omer Asik ($3,000 DK, $3,500 FD)
The Pelicans will be playing a paced down game tonight against a Milwaukee Bucks team who has not yet proven they can get it done on either side of the ball. It is no secret that New Orleans will be counting on Anthony Davis to do pretty much everything on the floor including rebounding, and doling out some assists. However, they need to get more production from everyone on the floor if they expect to start winning games. As stated above, the Bucks are very average defensively, so New Orleans can take advantage if they get some production out of the back court.
From a fantasy perspective, there is not too much to be had from the Pelicans other than Anthony Davis because Tim Frazier's price has risen to almost unplayable on DraftKings, and somewhat marginal on FanDuel. The one spot Milwaukee has shown to be better than average defensively is at the point guard position, so Frazier's ceiling might be a little low tonight, he will still see a large number of minutes thus making him a better cash game option than a GPP option.
Top Plays - Anthony Davis, Tim Frazier
Secondary Plays - None
UTAH JAZZ AT SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Line: San Antonio -10.5
Total: 187
Utah Jazz
Projected Team Total: 89
Average Points Per Game: 91.7 (29th)
Average Points Allowed Per Game: 96.7 (8th)
Team Pace: 93.85 (30th)
Projected Lineups
PG - George Hill ($5,800 DK, $5,600 FD)
SG - Rodney Hood ($5,700 DK, $5,300 FD)
SF - Joe Johnson ($4,900 DK, $5,000 FD)
PF - Derrick Favors ($6,200 DK, $6,600 FD)
C - Rudy Gobert ($6,900 DK, $6,900 FD)
If there was a game to avoid on tonight's slate, this is the one.
The only news fantasy players are waiting to hear out of Utah is whether, or not Derrick Favors has come off of his minutes restriction. If that has happened, then he is underpriced even in a matchup against San Antonio considering his pricing is so low. If that has not happened, then this complete fade from the Utah Jazz side because it will be play extremely slowly with both teams playing very good defense while taking a clock chewing approach. Utah Jazz pricing has come up somewhat due to Hayward, and Favors both being sidelined, or limited, so they are not very viable in a slow, low scoring match up where there will be little peripherals to go around.
Top Plays - Derrick Favors - Only if he is off of minutes restriction
Secondary Plays - None
San Antonio Spurs
Projected Team Total: 99
Average Points Per Game: 108.8 (5th)
Average Points Allowed Per Game: 93 (5th)
Team Pace: 97.07 (25th)
Projected Lineup
PG - Tony Parker ($3,800 DK, $4,300 FD)
SG - Kyle Anderson ($3,600 DK, $3,500 FD)
SF - Kawhi Leonard ($8,600 DK, $8,300 FD)
PF - LaMarcus Aldridge ($7,000 DK, $7,200 FD)
C - Pau Gasol ($6,000 DK, $6,500 FD)
The San Antonio Spurs are a 10.5 point favorite against another defensively minded team in the Utah Jazz. The Jazz have been without a couple of their key components in Gordon Hayward, and Derrick Favors, but have still managed to be one of the best teams in the league in positional defense along with ranking 8th in points allowed per game. There is not really much intriguing from the Spurs side of things because the game will likely be low scoring with scare peripherals to distribute, and the main Spurs scorers will likely not score enough real points to make, or exceed value in order to make up for that difference.
Top Plays - None
Secondary Plays - None
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS AT PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS
Line: Golden State -7
Total: 228.5
Golden State Warriors
Projected Team Total: 111
Average Points Per Game: 109.3 (4th)
Average Points Allowed Per Game: 114.3 (30th)
Team Pace: 105.55 (3rd)
The final game of the night is where you will likely want to focus a good amount of your attention.
PG - Stephen Curry ($9,200 DK, $8,700 FD)
SG - Klay Thompson ($6,500 DK, $5,800 FD)
SF - Kevin Durant ($9,800 DK, $10,500 FD)
PF - Draymond Green ($7,700 DK, $8,300 FD)
C - Zaza Pachulia ($4,000 DK, $4,000 FD)
The Golden State Warriors face off with a Portland Trailblazers team that can keep up step for step over the course of the entire game. Golden State currently ranks 4th in points scored per game, and dead last in points allowed per game. This does not mean that the Warriors are at all bad on defense though, but rather that they play so quickly that other teams are forced into taking more shots. The Warriors are right around the league average in positional defense, but do allow the most field goal attempts in the league by a somewhat wide margin.
Offensively, the Warriors rank only 17th in field goals attempted, but sit at 8th in field goals made while also being in the top five for assists. The Trailblazers rank 25th in field goals attempted, and 29th in free throws attempted, so not only do they allow opponents to take a large amount of shots, they also foul quite often giving opponents plenty of chances to score real points in bunches. On top of that, Portland only ranks as well as the Warriors in rebounding at 18th, so Golden State will have an inordinate amount of opportunities at scoring not only real points, but also stuff all fantasy statistical categories.
Top Plays - Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson - Stephen Curry has the best chance so far this season to break out of his slump, and put up a big fantasy game. The game style benefits Klay Thompson the most because Klay is so dependent upon scoring, so a fast pace where there are plenty of shots to be had is just right for him.
Secondary Plays - Zaza Pachulia - Pachulia will rightly go overlooked here, but he is going against a soft Trailblazers front court that is not very good on the glass, so he does not need much to make, or exceed value tonight even though there are better center options for the slate.
Portland Trailblazers
Projected Team Total: 118
Average Points Per Game: 111.3 (2nd)
Average Points Allowed Per Game: 110.3 (24th)
Team Pace: 102.19 (9th)
Projected Lineup
PG - Damian Lillard ($9,500 DK, $9,900 FD)
SG - C.J. McCollum ($7,200 DK, $7,300 FD)
SF - Maurice Harkless ($4,000 DK, $4,800 FD)
PF - Al-Farouq Aminu ($4,400 DK, $4,500 FD)
C - Mason Plumlee ($4,600 DK, $4,900 FD)
The Trailblazers are very similar to the Golden State Warriors both offensively, and defensively. The only category where they are somewhat different is in assists, but that is because the largest part of the Portland offense comes from Damian Lillard, and C.J. McCollum instead of a committee as it is in Golden State. Nonetheless, this is a great matchup for daily fantasy players as there will be plenty of real scoring, and peripherals for multiple players the make value. The most difficult choice tonight when deciding between players in these games is discerning which ones have the highest ceilings relative to their prices.
The one spot that should give you a little pause is the Trailblazer's shooting guard position because Klay Thompson has excellent defense, so McCollum might struggle somewhat.
Top Plays - Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum - Lillard's pricing is somewhat concerning on FD because he is not normally a $10,000 player, but the matchup is good enough for him to score fantasy points somewhere in the 50s, so the hefty price tag is justifiable. McCollum is getting expensive as well, and the wing matchup for him is less than ideal, but the game pace should mitigate that to an extent. McCollum should still be able to make value even at an inflated price.
Secondary Plays - Mason Plumlee - The one gaping hole in the Warriors defense comes from the paint where Zaza Pachulia's defense is not very capable of stopping anyone. If Klay Thompson manages to shut down McCollum on the wing, the Trailblazers will push the ball inside to Plumlee giving him a shot at over 7x.
