We were able to get ahold of veteran player Jeff O'Dell and get his view on many aspects of high stakes fantasy football.
Occupation (when not playing fantasy football)
Medical Sales
Dodds: Family life
Married 10 wonderful years to Andrea, with 4 children - all boys: Dylan (shout out to my oldest who is serving proudly in the US Navy), Conor, and the Terror Twins Luke and Logan.
Years playing fantasy football
Since 1993 (20 years)
Your biggest score(s) in fantasy football
I don't remember the final scores but I owned Clinton Portis in almost all my leagues when he had 50+ points late in the 2003 season. I was also lucky enough to own Michael Vick during his 2010 romp which led to many of my biggest weeks ever.
Do you prefer drafting live or online? Why?
I love both...but if I was only allowed one, I would draft live and make it an auction. I'd really like to see online auctions become a staple for our high stakes league providers. Right now, I'm not sure if anyone has a good interface for that format outside of ESPN. Start-up Dynasty drafts are also a ton of fun but unfortunately you don't get to do as many of those.
Name two players that you expect will be undervalued in most fantasy drafts this year. Explain why you think these sleepers could drastically outperform their ADP.
I'd be pretty happy getting Aaron Dobson in the 12th round or later which is where he's currently going. His route-running improved weekly during his rookie campaign and being Tom Brady's potential WR1 enhances his outlook. He also has a unique skill set compared to the other WR's on the roster that makes him ideally-suited to be the primary outside threat. For the second one, let's talk about the possibility of Joique Bell being the Lions RB to own this year, despite being drafted 2 to 3 rounds later than running mate Reggie Bush. In March, Bell was resigned to a 3-year deal that offers more guaranteed money than Bush and Joe Lombardi's scheme all but ensures Bell will have a significant role in the offense. Turnovers, dropped passes and injuries plagued Bush last season, and if that continues, Bell could play an even greater role. Monitor his health heading into Week 1, but if all goes well, Bell is a lock to outperform his current ADP. For extra credit, I'll throw in the Steelers D, who are currently the 19th defense coming off the board. The quarterbacks they play during the first 11 weeks will provide many big-play opportunities.
Name two players that will not be on your roster at any draft position. Explain why you think these busts could drastically under-perform their ADP.
I'm not one to overdraft players prone to suspension or injury. Many of my Dynasty buddies are taking advantage of Josh Gordon's current ADP, but I'd rather take a chance on some other young player who has a little less upside but is less of a headache. In redraft leagues, I won't be rostering Mark Ingram, who after three seasons of mediocrity is still being drafted as early as the 11th round. New Orleans has been in the bottom 25% of the league in rushing attempts the past two seasons and Ingram isn't involved in the passing game. A couple of other players I'd take, but only at a deep discount, are David Wilson and Jordan Reed. I'm not optimistic about Wilson's return or Reed's staying power. Reed recently admitted to having more concussions that what has been reported, and when paired with the length of his recovery time after the last one, I'm beginning to get visions of Jahvid Best.
Give us a snapshot of how you prep for a fantasy draft once you know your draft position?
Projections, ADP, and whatever instinct I can muster. My base projections are usually finished sometime during the NFL playoffs, and from there, I constantly update individual players' projections when anything related to the player occurs such as a coaching change, influx or departure of talent, etc. My cheatsheet is a simple rack and stack drawn directly from those projections. I keep my ADP current with 8 recent drafts and use it strictly as a roadmap. When you put these tools together, it will identify players who are under- and over-valued. Unless I'm picking in the middle, I'll re-stack the players so I know which groups I'll snag at least one player from. What I'm trying to accomplish is to move "falling" players into later groups in order to build some value into the picks. However, I usually won't move players into earlier groups because others are drafting them there, as that deflates value. This keeps my projections "in charge" of the decisions I make, and hopefully the value I've accumulated at the end of the draft puts me ahead of the competition on game day. The bottom line is you have to do more with your picks than the other owners, regardless of draft position, and that means getting value at later picks.
How do you go about evaluating talent that you will add via the waiver wire?
I keep a spreadsheet of available talent residing on the wire that I think has the ability to earn more time as the season unfolds. I'll usually focus on 4-5 games a week live, and then catch up on the others with NFL Rewind, honing in on players at the top of my waiver rankings. What I'm looking for is an increase in opportunities rather than a player who got a couple of long TD's or trash-time points in a blowout. It takes a lot of work which is why I try to load my annual portfolio up with as many Draft Experts or "best ball" leagues as I can.
How much of fantasy football is skill? How much is luck?
I think it takes a degree of skill to evaluate player talent and then gauge that player's opportunity once they land on on NFL roster. If you can do that well, it puts you in a good position to capitalize on luck when the ball bounces your way. But luck is such a big part of it - coaches rarely tell the truth, injuries can't be predicted, and you never know when the Dolphins are going to roll out the Wildcat against your favorite team (not a good memory, that one). I also think you can make a little of your own luck by playing the waiver wire diligently, being savvy at the trade table, and handcuffing your stud RB - or better yet, someone else's stud RB.
What advice would you give a player taking a shot at high stakes for the 1st time? Without giving away all of your secrets, how can a newbie get up to speed quickly in the world of high stakes?
I think many of us started out as homers who drafted our favorite players, then cheered for them on Sunday on our way to a 3-11 fantasy record. In High Stakes, you really have to depart from those urges and draft value at every turn, so keep your fandom and fantasy rankings separate. Another thing I'd share is something I wish I'd been told much earlier - and that's "Don't play not to lose". With very little planning, it's easy to draft and maintain a 5th or 6th place team. The aim is to consistently be at the top of the standings, not in the middle, and that takes a "Play to Win" strategy. In short, that means taking proven players from high octane offenses during the top third of a draft and then long shots with upside in the bottom third. In between, focus on 3rd and 4th year break-out candidates that can boost your chances during bye weeks or players who can formidably back up your starters when injuries strike. In almost every league, you can trace a Championship back to the owner who drafted an absolute beast in the later rounds. You only need one or two of those late round players to "hit" and you'll be making hay. I strongly recommend participating in some of the under-$100 best ball leagues to get the feel for drafting. It also helps to look back at your drafts at the end of the season to make a mental note of what went right and wrong.
What is your favorite high stakes format? (Main Event, Draft Experts, Dynasty, Auction, etc). Why do you prefer this format?
I really like auction leagues because those begin without an advantage due to draft position. Dynasty leagues are a must-play due to the strategies involved not found in other formats. If you've never participated in a Dynasty start-up draft, you are missing out on the filet mignon of fantasy football. I'll hopefully add 20-30 Draft Experts teams to the slate by September. Those are great because you can compete without investing too much time on lineups and waivers.
To tight end or not to tight end? With the FFPC dual flex (and awarding 1.5 points per reception for tight ends), this position is extremely valuable. Do you generally pay a premium for a top five tight end or do you seek value at RB/WR and look to grab your tight end later?
Either is fine. The trouble is in the middle. There's nothing wrong with taking Jimmy Graham in the first 5 picks of an FFPC draft. I've done it many times with good results. I've also waited until very late in a draft to begin building a TE-by-committee, such as pairing Delanie Walker with Brent Celek. Doing this, you can load up on RB's and WR's while other TE's are being drafted that are only marginally better than the ones you'll target later.
Give us your top six picks in the FFPC Main Event.
Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Jimmy Graham, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte and Calvin Johnson.
Many of the best players in the FFPC wait on their quarterbacks. But with the NFL moving more and more to a passing league (and guys like Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers putting up ridiculous totals), when will you be looking to grab your QB in the Main Event?
I have thresholds on how far I'm willing to let the top QB's fall, but I'm aiming on taking mine in the later rounds. Supply and demand is why savvy owners wait to take a QB. The number of viable starters at the QB position has grown immensely over the past two season and you only have to start one. In Draft Experts leagues, it's even more advantageous to wait. You should be able to build a committee of three in later rounds whose best games collectively will contend with those of the top QB's. Also ask yourself, "Do I want to fill a starting roster spot with one of the RB's or WR's available in the 9th round, or with a QB like Jay Cutler or Philips Rivers?". Some will still need that elite signal-caller, and you can make that work, but it's harder and takes a bit more luck in my opinion.
Make a case for why someone should come to Vegas and participate in some high stakes events.
Unfortunately, the seasonal activity tied to my line of work has prevented me from taking my talents to the desert. I say to the true fanatics: If you don't have similar obstacles, I don't know what you're waiting for. The pictures of banquet halls filled to the brim with jersey-adorned, similarly-afflicted fantasy nuts breaks my heart every September. The thought of beating David in the Bare Knuckles format he created would alone be worth the trip! I again will miss out this year, but I've committed to attending in 2015 and I'm already counting the days. I plan to have a team in the Main Event, an Auction league, and that Bare Knuckles beast, if they'll deal me in.
What's the biggest mistake you see high stakes players consistently making in these leagues?
The most obvious mistake is when an owner reaches or drafts a player much earlier than he has to, and that's compounded exponentially the earlier it happens. You know you've screwed up when you draft Aaron Rodgers with the 8th overall pick, and the next QB doesn't go until the 4th round. I've talked to quite a few people who completely ignore ADP, but as much trouble as some think it can get you in, I believe it can protect you from the majority of those mistakes.
Aside from the obvious payout and competition level, what's the biggest difference between high stakes leagues and regular leagues?
You nailed it with competition. Local leagues are usually quite a bit easier after you've played against some of the world's best in the High Stakes communities. There is a camaraderie in both, but one of my favorite fantasy experiences each year is an auction draft with guys I grew up with. Matt Berry's book - "Fantasy Life" - captured really well the things that are great about local leagues all over the country. You've got to keep those leagues going.
What's the thing you wished you'd learned five years ago?
That tons of talent is nothing without opportunity. I get excited watching highlight reels of college players entering the NFL. Real excited. The most recent example is Isaiah Crowell who looked unstoppable against SEC defenses his freshman year at Georgia. His off-the-field trouble is well documented but his talent, which many compare to LeSean McCoy or CJ Spiller, is exactly what I'm looking for in the last few rounds of a draft. Unfortunately, his current situation is more similar to that enjoyed by Henry Josey and Ronnie Wingo. If you didn't know what RB's are four injuries away from starting for the Eagles or Bills, you do now. Players like Crowell, Latavius Murray and Marcus Lattimore are uber-talented but may never get a chance to provide a return on your investment. The same can be said about players higher up the depth chart but who are stuck in a scheme that limits their potential. There is a point in the draft made for taking these gambles, but make sure you weigh opportunity before over-reaching for them.
Can you take both a quarterback and a tight end in the first six rounds of an FFPC draft and be successful?
I placed in a Draft Experts league taking two TEs and a QB in the first 6 rounds. I wouldn't attempt that start very often, if ever again, and I think the strong finish was more about getting Randall Cobb very late. It was fun at the time but RB's, and almost equally now, WR's, are too valuable in most formats to ignore them early. I don't fret much about combos but the Drew Brees-to-Jimmy Graham connection has been very good for awhile now and it's one I aim for in the FFPC from time to time. With that being said, I will be very happy this year in most drafts if I'm still looking for my first QB and first TE heading into the and 9th and 10th rounds.
At the end of the 20 rounds (drafts/auctions), how many of each position do you expect to end up with?
In Draft Expert format (now 28 rounds), how many of each position do you plan to roster? In 20 rounds with a waiver wire, I'm going 1 QB, 7-9 RBs, 7-9 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Def, 1 PK. In a 28-round Draft Experts format, I'm loading up on WR's, taking as many as a dozen. If I deviate from my strategy and land a strong QB or TE cheap, I may only draft a single backup at those positions. Monopolizing team defenses is a sneaky strategy in DE's but you need to land 3-4 of the top 10 which is tough, and in most cases, you should be drafting sleepers with huge upside at those picks.
What is your basic waiver strategy?
Land one absolute STUD, regardless of cost. I would gladly spend 95% of my waiver dollars for a RB who inherits a big workload due to an injury, especially if the injury is season-ending for the original starter. The earlier in the season you can acquire someone like that, the better, so I take shots early and will blow my load on the first whale that surfaces.
Best guesses: By what week will you have spent 50% of your allocated dollars? How much money do you plan to still have after 10 weeks of play?
O'Dell: I'll spend minimum bids on long shots until someone formidable is up for bid. If he's the guy I think can make a difference, I'll spend down to having just enough to cover bye weeks. After 10 weeks, I'm probably playing with $1 per week remaining (out of an initial $100 budget). I do not hoard waiver dollars.