We were able to get ahold of veteran fantasy player Dave Asrani and get his view on many aspects of high stakes fantasy football.
Occupation (when not playing fantasy football)
Teacher
Family life
Married with three kids: 9, 8, and 6.
Years playing fantasy football
Roughly 15 years
Your biggest score(s) in fantasy football
League Champ in a 2013 FFPC Main Event, 2013 League Champ in an FFPC High Stakes dynasty, a few championships in $500 and $1000 leagues
Do you prefer drafting live or online? Why?
All of my high stakes drafts have been done online thus far. The convenience that an online draft offers is the main reason. Drafting live is more exciting because of the increased adrenaline rush.
Name two players that you expect will be undervalued in most fantasy drafts this year. Explain why you think these sleepers could drastically outperform their ADP.
The one elite fantasy option who I think is being undervalued right now is Rob Gronkowski. Gronk is one of two true difference makers at the tight end position. Injuries have created enough doubt that many people are no longer willing to gamble on his immense upside. By all accounts, he looks like he will be ready for week 1. I don’t feel he poses significantly more injury risk this year than your average player.
The deeper sleeper that I expect big things from this year is Brandin Cooks. He is a huge dynasty asset right now but also offers a good deal of redraft value, especially in PPR. He could be heavily targeted in the high powered Saints offense. I think he’ll be the main guy used to fill the void of Darren Sproles’ departure. If that happens, be ready for some long, electric touchdowns. However, I am a little concerned about his ability to fully grasp the playbook due to his late graduation.
Name two players that will not be on your roster at any draft position. Explain why you think these busts could drastically underperform their ADP.
One player that I doubt will make it onto any of my rosters is Vincent Jackson. VJax is a great receiver but tends to get taken too early in drafts for my liking. Jackson is 31 years old. The majority of receivers start slowing down around this age. The Bucs drafted Mike Evans and Austin Seferian-Jenkins. While these receivers may take some coverage away from Jackson, I think they’ll take some targets away, too. Jackson may lose a considerable amount of red zone looks to these similarly tall receivers. Mostly, I don’t like Josh McCown’s chances of repeating his 2013 five game starting performance. He is one of the least impressive starting quarterbacks in the league. He no longer has Trestman designing plays for him and should be part of a more conservative, run-heavy offense.
Another player that I’ve always felt gets overdrafted in PPR leagues is Alfred Morris. This year will be no exception. Morris is a better real life running back than fantasy running back. Last season, he was the unquestioned starter, played every game, ran in the perfect system fit, averaged more than 4.6 yards per carry, yet still finished as the RB20 in PPR leagues. I think that’s his ceiling this year. His floor is much lower. He’s invisible in the passing game and Jay Gruden runs a very pass-happy scheme. That could spell trouble.
Give us a snapshot of how you prep for a fantasy draft once you know your draft position?
Draft position has a big effect on which players I pick in the first two rounds. As a result, I spend some time mapping out who I might target in the early mid rounds. If my draft position forces me to go wide receiver/wide receiver off the start, then I really want to have a good idea of which running backs might be available when my pick rolls around in the 3rd and 4th rounds.
How do you go about evaluating talent that you will add via the waiver wire?
I really take a close look at who gets dropped. I also closely follow injury reports to see if there are good players who will be given new opportunities.
How much of fantasy football is skill? How much is luck?
Most of it is skill until the playoffs. My guess is about 70%. Playoffs are a bit of a crapshoot, in my opinion.
What advice would you give a player taking a shot at high stakes for the 1st time? Without giving away all of your secrets, how can a newbie get up to speed quickly in the world of high stakes?
Read, read, and read some more. Find sites that provide in-depth, timely information. Don’t be afraid to pay a small membership fee for some of these sites. Well worth the investment. Most importantly, fully understands your league settings. Subtle variances from the norm in terms of your league settings can significantly impact the value of specific players. For example, a league that allows for up to 5 wide receivers to start and only requires 1 starting running back will make wide receivers much more valuable and running backs much less in your league. Therefore, even though rankings listed on sites are very useful, it is vital to know how to adjust them within the parameters of your league settings.
What is your favorite high stakes format? (Main Event, Draft Experts, Dynasty, Auction, etc). Why do you prefer this format?
Without question, my favourite high stakes format is dynasty. I love that it requires you to follow and shape your team throughout the whole year. These leagues offer by far the most variety in terms of strategy. Even after your team has fallen out of contention, you have to be busy trying to build for next year. I love trying to balance present success with future gains.
To tight end or not to tight end? With the FFPC dual flex (and awarding 1.5 points per reception for tight ends), this position is extremely valuable. Do you generally pay a premium for a top five tight end or do you seek value at RB/WR and look to grab your tight end later?
I’m a big tight end guy in FFPC formats. In redrafts, I will try to draft one of Graham, Gronkowski, or Thomas. I am also interested in some of the low-end TE1s, as I feel they could have big years in 2014. In dynasty, I like to stock my roster with a few, young tight ends that have a chance to be future top guys at the position.
Give us your top six picks in the FFPC Main Event.
As of right now, I’d go McCoy, AP, Graham, Charles, Calvin, and Forte.
Many of the best players in the FFPC wait on their quarterbacks. But with the NFL moving more and more to a passing league (and guys like Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers putting up ridiculous totals), when will you be looking to grab your quarterback in the Main Event?
I always remain flexible in a redraft. If I see a position flying off the board and I have a chance to pick up one of the last two guys in the tier, I usually jump on them. With that said, I will probably wait on quarterbacks for a while because my Tier 2 for the position is larger than most. I imagine I won’t draft a QB before the 8th round.
Make a case for why someone should come to Vegas and participate in some high stakes events.
I can’t do that because I’ve never been there for these events. Teaching doesn’t allow me to draft live for that time of year. The first thing I do when I retire is book a flight to Vegas for that week.
What's the biggest mistake you see high stakes players consistently making in these leagues?
The biggest mistake many fantasy players make is allowing recency bias to affect their judgements. 2013 will not be a carbon copy of 2014. Players who were hot for the last couple of games of the season are not guaranteed to continue that pace the following season. Players that get injured the year before will not necessarily be any more likely to get hurt in the current year. While recency bias is less prevalent in high stakes leagues because of the high degree of competition, it still exists.
Aside from the obvious payout and competition level, what's the biggest difference between high stakes leagues and regular leagues?
Strategy changes during drafts when the level of competition increases. The turn positions in the draft are very tough spots to be in if it’s a highly competitive league. You have to really believe in “your guys” and be willing to reach a bit because other managers will also have those players earmarked. In less competitive leagues, you can draft the best players available in terms of ADP and be reasonably confident that “your guy” will fall to you later in the draft.
What's the thing you wished you'd learned five years ago?
I wish I knew about high stakes and dynasty leagues five years ago. Then I would have gotten into the fun a couple of years earlier. I’m still learning right now. Every week offers new lessons.
Can you take both a quaterback and a tight end in the first six rounds of an FFPC draft and be successful?
Absolutely. There are all kinds of strategies that allow for success in an FFPC draft. Especially last year, with Peyton being so dominant. However, it’s not a strategy I’m likely to employ. I’m not against the idea of drafting two TEs early in an FFPC draft, though.
At the end of the 20 rounds (drafts/auctions), how many of each position do you expect to end up with? In Draft Expert format (now 28 rounds), how many of each position do you plan to roster?
In 20 rounder, I’d likely have 2 quarterbacks, 6 or 7 running backs, 6 or 7 wide receivers, 3 tight ends, a kicker and a defense.
In 28 rounder, I’d likely have 3 quarterbacks, 8 running backs, 7 or 8 wide receivers, 3 or 4 tight ends, 3 kickers and 3 defenses.
What is your basic waiver strategy?
I really like to target players who get off to slow starts and get dropped to the waiver because of impatient owners. Most guys go through a 2 or 3 game slump at some point and there’s every reason to believe a player can turn things around, especially if it’s at the beginning of the season against some tougher defenses.
Best guesses: By what week will you have spent 50% of your allocated dollars? How much money do you plan to still have after 10 weeks of play?
This really varies for me from league to league because of my philosophy of picking up players that other guys have dropped. It really depends on the quality of players dropped throughout the season.