High Side by James Brimacombe
The one thing I have learned about Chip Kelly after one year in the NFL is that he is not afraid to go after the players that fit into his system. That holds true with Zach Ertz and the Eagles selecting him in the 2nd round in the 2013 NFL Draft. In most cases rookie tight ends struggle to contribute in year one, but with Ertz he gained momentum with quarterback Nick Foles as the year progressed and ended his rookie season with a solid stat line of 36 receptions, 469 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Those numbers were good enough for the 20th ranked fantasy tight end, and beyond the numbers Ertz was being trusted by Foles in key situations late in the season at crucial times in games. The quarterback trust alone in a rookie tight end has to catch your attention and heading into year two Ertz is looking like a huge upside play at the tight end position.
I am not saying Ertz is on track for Jimmy Graham type of numbers, but if you compare the two in their rookie seasons they are quite similar. Graham was the 23rd ranked tight end in his rookie year putting up 31 receptions, 356 yards, and 5 touchdowns, and the very next year saw a statline of 99/1,310/11 and finished 2nd overall at the position. It is hard to think Ertz comes anywhere close to those numbers but his strong play to end the 2013 season has a lot of people excited. He is a high upside TE1 and after the big names of Graham, Gronkowski, Thomas, Davis, Cameron, and Witten he has to be considered by just the sheer fact that he plays in a system that is going to give him a lot of targets and opportunities to make plays.
Another big advantage for Ertz entering year two is that DeSean Jackson has now moved on to Washington and he himself had 126 targets and 82 receptions last season. Those targets are going to have to be distributed to different players this year and you can't just assume that Jeremy Maclin, Jordan Matthews and Darren Sproles are just going to divide them up by themselves. A 50-60 catch season is very likely for Ertz in 2014 and with that production he should see close to 700-800 yards and six or seven touchdowns. The one drawback for Ertz would be that he also has Brent Celek to compete with at the position and Celek himself ranked in as the 14th best fantasy tight end last year with a 32/502/6 statline. If you combine both of Ertz and Celek's numbers you are looking at 68 receptions, 971 yards, and 10 touchdowns which would be equivalent to a top five option at the position. For redraft leagues Ertz offers a lot of upside as he has shown he is a trusted asset in the Chip Kelly offense, look for him to have a strong offseason and hit the ground running once the season kicks off. As far as dynasty leagues go, he is a great asset to invest in and whenever Brent Celek moves on from the Eagles, Ertz is ready to jump in and be that top five player at the position.
Low Side by Jeff Pasquino
There are definitely reasons to like Zach Ertz this year - DeSean Jackson is gone, so his targets have to go somewhere. Ertz is now in his second year as a pro, and he is more of the move tight end and receiver than the rapidly aging Brent Celek. The Eagles are a high-powered offense, so the tight end should have a ton of value. Hold on there - let's dig into these three reasons before we pass true judgment on what Ertz's real potential looks like for 2014.
I want to start with that third statement above, which is that the Philadelphia tight end spot has a ton of value for Chip Kelly. I don't believe that this is true at all. Last season, the Eagles attempted only 508 passes, and just 113 of those (22.2%) went towards a tight end. How does that compare to other offenses? Let's take a look at the #1 offense for a tight end last year - New Orleans. Drew Brees attempted 650 passes, and 182 of those went to the tight end position (with 142 going to Jimmy Graham). That's 28% of Brees' attempts towards the tight end position. No other team had even 25% of their targets go towards tight ends last year.
What about other teams? Great question. I looked at all of the teams that had a tight end with 100 or more targets last year - the Saints, Atlanta, Cleveland, San Diego, Dallas, Carolina and Miami. That's seven team. Only two teams, New Orleans (28.0%) and San Diego (27.2%) had more than 25% of the team targets go towards tight ends. The rest of the teams were all in the 20-24% range. That data gives me some idea of what could project for the Eagles and the tight end position if Ertz is indeed the top target and the Eagles start to throw some more this year.
So what is the outlook for Philadelphia's offense in Year 2 under Chip Kelly and Nick Foles? We've heard that the speed will increase, but there is a lot of personnel changes going on this year. DeSean Jackson is gone, but added are two rookie wide receivers (Jordan Matthews and Josh Huff), a returning veteran in Jeremy Maclin after an injury, plus experienced receiving tailback Darren Sproles. That's a good amount of change to replace Jackson and former third receiver Jason Avant. Ertz should be the primary receiver at tight end, but remember that the Eagles barely threw 500 times last year. Let's make some assumptions and assume that Ertz has the best case scenario, shall we? That will give us his ceiling for 2014.
First assumption is that Philadelphia throws the ball more this year. That's a big assumption, but we can start with that for a moment. Foles was not the full time starter in Week 1 last year, but he did finish the year strong. The concern here is that, despite strong fantasy numbers, Foles did not make that many attempts to pass in 2013. He topped 30 attempts just four times (including his playoff game), and only once broke 40. That does not speak well towards the Eagles throwing 600+ times this year. I would earmark their upside in passing attempts at 560, a 10% uptick from last year. Taking 25% of those attempts as potential tight end targets (another high side estimate, as discussed above) and we have up to 140 targets at Philadelphia tight ends for this season. Even if Ertz makes the big move to the top receiving tight end for the Eagles as expected, he should not get more than 75% of those targets. That puts his target ceiling at 105 targets, and if he catches 60% of those passes he gets around 60-65 receptions this year. Ballparking his yards and touchdowns, his best case numbers look like 65-650-6 - which would have him right around TE10 last season, near Martellus Bennett's 65-759-5 stats in Chicago. Ertz is being drafted right now as the TE10 overall, which means his ADP = his ceiling. Is that what you really want to draft? A player being selected at his best case numbers? I see Ertz posting more of a 50-600-5 line this year at best, which barely makes him a TE1 and not worth a Top 100-110 pick overall. If I am going to take a tight end in the first 8-9 rounds, it would be someone with more upside and a better track record than the big downside risk Ertz's present value presents.