What is the most common mistake you see others make when constructing a team - either in a draft or an auction?
Dave Larkin: In my experience the most flagrant of errors made by fantasy owners during their drafts is pride; namely, refusing to take players they are averse to when the value is too good to pass up. There comes a tipping point, if you will, for each and every player in your league. It is up to the individual owner to know where that point lies for polarising players, and that only comes with research. My advice to combat this is to get both sides of the story to flesh out this player's potential. It could be a former stud who has fallen foul of the injury bug, a player in a new system that could potentially unlock his true value or simply a player who has burned you before.
The knock-on effect of this misstep in drafts is often an unbalanced roster. While it is possible to make up for passing on these values with the rest of your roster and solid draft management, it can often end up hurting you in terms of depth. After all, most of these polarising talents will lurk in the middle rounds of drafts - this year, Darren McFadden comes to mind as a prime example. We've been burned before by him and Oakland's offense, while showing signs of slow improvement, isn't exactly a reliable unit to put your chips on. Nevertheless, McFadden only has an ageing Maurice Jones-Drew to beat out and could conceivably hit high RB2 totals if all goes according to plan... then again, he could crash and burn.
Everyone is entitled to avoid certain players like the plague if they wish; nobody will hold it against you. However, having an open mind and knowing your tipping point for these 'ne touche pas' players could end up giving you that little boost you need when the business end of the fantasy season dawns.
Jason Wood: Dave has a great point, and one that I've been guilty of at times.
I would highlight two other common mistakes.
- Recency Bias -- people are understandably reactionary. They remember the way players performed in the fantasy playoffs more than how they did early in the year. They naturally remember last season more than two seasons ago. Unfortunately that memory clouds their ability to optimally assess players. Any credible correlation analysis shows that the final four weeks of the prior season is MUCH less predictive than the entirety of the prior season, yet I see and hear countless analysts talk about how Player X finished strong in 2013 and is worth a flier.
- Slave to ADP -- sites have gotten quite good at providing accurate, up-to-date ADP data. That can be a useful tool however too many people treat ADP like a magnet, fearing that taking a player before he's atop the ADP rankings may be reaching while taking a guy below his ADP -- even if you don't like them -- is now a value. Winners draft the players they want. Period. If I think Devonta Freeman is going to star this year, I would be an idiot to wait until his ADP range because chances are someone who is just looking for depth will grab him and luck into an awesome value. I will take Freeman based on MY ranking even if that's several rounds ahead of where he's "supposed" to go.
Maurile Tremblay: On the other hand, if you think Devonta Freeman is going to star this year, you may simply be way off base, in which case you'd be better off being a slave to ADP.
I understand both sides of this one. On the one hand, fantasy football is most fun when you're making your own decisions based on your own scouting observations. If you just draft by ADP (or by someone else's rankings), it may as well be somebody else's team. It doesn't have your stamp on it. In any leagues you're playing in more for fun than for money, I therefore recommend going with your gut and drafting Devonta Freeman if you're nuts about him.
But there's a place for humility, too, and realizing that when your opinion about a player is far different from the fantasy community's opinion in general (as signaled by his ADP), more often than not it's because your opinion is off base. That's true even of most so-called experts. Of course, "more often than not" is not a synonym for "always." There are times when the fantasy football community in general is irrationally off base about a player. Recency bias, mentioned earlier, may cause such a situation, and there are other potential causes as well. So even in big money leagues, my advice is not: "Never substantially deviate from ADP." My advice, rather, is "Don't substantially deviate from ADP lightly." Specifically, before substantially deviating from a player's ADP, you should understand the common view that is driving his ADP, and you should be able to identify why the common view is erroneous. If you don't understand why a player's ADP is what it is, don't just assume that it's wrong because differs from your thinking. Research it until you do understand what's driving his ADP -- and then deviate only when you can articulate why it's wrong.
Andy Hicks: I'll come at this from a year long perspective. A lot of owners focus 90% of their effort in the draft. Once they've drafted they put little effort into waiver wire and trading options. I've won many a league where I had a terrible or injury riddled draft, but through good management and a little luck you can get out of most drafting messes.
An example is targeting a waiver wire defense that may have been discarded because of a tough early schedule. Every year there are defences that come out of nowhere and have a run of 3 or 4 games against teams in an offensive mess. Get them before they get hot.
Don't stick with a kicker if his team suffers a major team injury, especially to the quarterback. Every year owners draft a kicker, replace him in bye week and do not look at better options. Waiver wire targets at the marquee positions need to be differentiated from one week wonders to genuine options. Don't fall for Robert Meachem when he gets that 50 yard TD, look for a guy steadily increasing his targets instead.
The harder you work at winning, the better you'll get at it.
Adam Harstad: The biggest mistake I see people making during the draft is assuming they have their starting lineup filled out. If a league starts 1 quarterback, 2 running backs, 3 wide receivers, and 1 tight end, I'll often see teams with that exact distribution of players through seven rounds. Then, once those rounds are over, they act like their starting lineup is all filled in and they start preoccupying themselves with building depth.
The simple truth is that, through seven rounds, the only starting lineup you will have filled out is the one you submit during week 1. Busts are not a possibility, they are a certainty. If only two of your first seven draft picks bust, then you just had an amazing draft and you're easily the favorite to take home the championship. In reality, you probably already own three or four busts after seven rounds, you just don't know who they are yet. Your goal in round eight, then, isn't to grab some good quality backups... it's to keep filling out your starting lineup, to replace those as-of-yet undiscovered busts. If the value is there, I'll take five wide receivers in my first seven picks. Sure, my league might only let me start three of them, but if I've drafted five receivers, I'm willing to bet that only three of them will be startable, anyway. If I already have three running backs and the best player left on the board is a running back, I'm taking him, because odds are I've whiffed on some of my early picks and I desperately need the help at the position still. If I took one of the top three quarterbacks early in the draft and we get to round nine and the best player left on the board is another quarterback, I'll take him.
My goal in the draft is to stack my team with as much talent as I possibly can. I'm not going to worry too much about the distribution of that talent until I've had a couple of weeks to see which of those talented players wound up being duds. Only once I've sifted through the wreckage of unmet expectations can I start going about the task of filling out my starting lineup.
Matt Waldman: I like Andy's point. I say this a lot: Winning Fantasy Football is a four-legged table:
- Draft
- Free Agency
- Lineup Management
- Trades
You can sometimes win based on being really awesome at one of these things, but most of the time you need to be good enough at 2-3 of these skills to build a table to support a successful team. When it comes to draft, there can be too much emphasis on sticking to ADP, balancing your bye weeks just right, and having depth across as many positions as possible. A good draft strategy often means picking players/positions to set you up for success in free agency, lineup management, and trades.
Knowing which positions are harder to obtain in September off the waiver wire is important to know and should be a factor with your drafting. The same is true of trades. Some positions are easier to acuire or deal for a profit earlier in the year than later. If you've drafted a specific way that yields you depth at a position that you can't leverage for additional talent then how effective was the draft?
Steve Buzzard: Jason’s points are spot on. I agree that recency bias and being a slave to ADP are two of the three biggest mistakes I see. I was going to write on how the best fantasy players will just go ahead and get the players they want and not worry about ADP but Jason covered this well.
The other big mistake I see is not realizing how big of a power regression to the mean is. When thinking of regression to the mean a lot of owners understand that Joseph Fauria probably won’t score 7 touchdowns on 18 receptions again this year because he isn’t a stud player. But when they start thinking about their favorite running back who averaged 5.5 yards per carry in limited action and is now getting a full time gig they assume he will put up yards per carry that approximate those. In reality his average will be a lot closer to 4.5 than 5.5. This rule applies to every player and every stat. It’s not too likely that Peyton Manning will break the touchdown record again this year just like it isn’t too likely that Hakeem Nicks will have 0 touchdowns on 56 catches and 896 yards. The more unusual the stat the more it will likely regress.
Stephen Holloway: Totally agree with Adam about some folks being too focused on the starting requirements and ignoring taking some value picks even at positions where you already have strength. Jason and Steve both make excellent points about recency bias.
Another mistake that I see folks make is not having sufficient knowledge of their fellow league members. As well as you know your league's scoring system, line-up requirements, and rules, you need to know your league members, both regarding their drafting habits as well as their trading philosophies. You can make much greater value picks if you have a better idea on when certain numbers per position will be taken.
Maurile Tremblay: People make different kinds of mistakes at different stages in their development as fantasy owners.
The most common mistake I see among beginners is to draft a team defense too early, or to draft a backup kicker or defense in a standard league. You don't need a backup kicker on your roster. You don't need a backup defense on your roster. The ones on the waiver wire will be just fine.
A mistake that can hurt owners with a bit more experience is to draft players at the same position with the same bye week. Having many of your top players at all positions with the same bye week is a legitimate strategy. (Your weakness that week will be offset by your lack of weakness any other week.) But having several of your top running backs with a bye in one week, and several of your top wide receivers with a bye in a different week is a disaster.
A troubling mistake even among advanced owners is laziness or forgetfulness when it comes to weekly waiver-wire pickups, and sometimes lineup submissions. Life can get busy, and it's easy to watch the kickoff of the Thursday night game and then suddenly realize that you forgot to move a player in that game into or out of your lineup. You should make it a habit, at certain times each week, to review potential waiver-wire or free-agent pickups, and to set your lineup. (The ten-second weekly primer, part of MyFBG, can help tremendously.) Put it on your calendar if you need to, but don't wait until the last second, and definitely don't just rely on spontaneously remembering to do it each week.
Finally, don't get drunk and draft Tim Tebow.
On a slightly different note, another mistake I see is general complacency with one's overall fantasy football experience. People get stuck in a rut, playing fantasy football the same way they've always played it, in the same leagues they've always played in. It's worthwhile to branch out and try different games. Play in a dynasty league. Play in an IDP league. Play in a league that starts two QBs. Try an auction league. Try the daily games. There are a lot of ways to spice up your fantasy football life, and the Internet makes it all pretty easy even if your local league resists evolving.
Adam Harstad: Another advantage of trying different league setups is that, if you're willing to put in a bit of thought and effort, you can really clean up. The proliferation of fantasy advice means even relatively inexperienced players are going to be making smart, sound, informed choices. Most of the fantasy advice, however, is tailored to the most common league types- 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, either PPR or non-PPR, maybe a flex. If you deviate from that norm, a lot of the common advice becomes less applicable, and there's a lot less good expert wisdom to fill that void. If you're in a league that rewards return yards, for instance, a lot of owners will just follow the standard advice still, leaving returners dramatically undervalued.
The more unusual your league is, the more opportunity there is to gain an advantage and exploit those differences for a profit. That's actually a big strength of MyFBGs- the ability to enter your league's scoring system and tailor the advice you receive to your specific league is a potentially huge advantage in an era where advantages are becoming harder and harder to come by.
Jeff Pasquino: Something that often gets overlooked by "experts" is the fact that people often draft in their own leagues that have the same guys (or women), year after year. By looking back at your own leagues' drafts, you can start to see patterns emerge. Do other owners in your league go RB early, no matter what? Do they take quarterbacks early? Do tight ends wind up falling each draft? Are wide receivers undervalued? League history can matter far more than ADP - which is, by definition, an average across many, many leagues. What matters most is each person's league or leagues, and by studying the league history and owners trends you can get a much better prediction of what will happen at your draft.
Dan Hindery: I think the point Jeff made about knowing your league mates and their draft tendencies is a great point and I want to focus this advice towards experienced players playing in leagues with a mixed skill level. In some ways, these leagues can add a degree of difficulty for owners who are accustomed to drafting with other strong owners.
Draft strategy at the QB position is the best example of how knowing your league has to alter your normal strategy. In expert leagues with experienced owners, it is often smart to wait and be one of the last owners to draft a starting QB. In 2014, there are really only a few QBs that are expected to provide a consistent weekly advantage over the QBs who are going off the board in the 10-14 range. So an owner can wait and grab his starter in round 8 or 9 (or later, depending upon the league) while loading up on RBs and WRs early. Maybe one or two owners will draft a backup QB in this range, but the worst case scenario is still being left with a capable starter like Russell Wilson, Tony Romo or Jay Cutler.
I play in a league with a bunch of old friends who are not all that into fantasy football and it certainly is not an expert style draft. It is common for there to be a run on backup QBs around the 8th round once everyone has filled their starting lineup (a rookie mistake that Adam touched on). In years past, I would stubbornly refuse to take a QB early when there were RBs and WRs I ranked much higher still on the board. Then there would be this illogical early run on backup QBs and it would come back around and I would be stuck with a low level QB2 as my starter. My mistake was both stubbornness and not tailoring my strategy for success to the specific league I was competing in. In recent years, I have just come to terms with drafting a starting QB much earlier than I would normally feel comfortable doing and taking advantage of the value in the mid-rounds at other positions.
Know your leaguemates' tendencies and do not be too stubborn to adjust your normal strategy to fit it best to a specific league.
Ryan Hester: Recency bias can be a mistake in many ways. If you refuse to draft a player because "he burned me last year," then you're not keeping an open mind. Also, if you're willing to pick Peyton Manning early in the first round this year because he was worth the top overall pick last year, you're paying for stats that won't count for your team.
Using stats from the past year(s) leads me to another item that is gaining a lot of steam in our industry lately. Every season during fantasy draft prep, owners are inundated with statements like "Player X finished as RB14 last year." Statistics can be misleading when discussing a player’s true importance to your fantasy team. People who have owned Chris Johnson have enjoyed RB12 and RB9 seasons in 2012 and 2013, respectively. However, these owners would say that the word "enjoyed" is highly inaccurate. Johnson very rarely finished weeks as a top-12 option but instead compiled great season-long stats by having a few big games and staying healthy for all 17 weeks.
If you follow fantasy football strategy and preparation, you've likely heard the statement, "fantasy football is a weekly game." Using an example of a player in the news lately, I'd rather have Rob Gronkowski for 11 games than Dennis Pitta or Greg Olsen for 16 games. While those other guys may end up with more season-long points, neither will have transcendent performances capable of carrying the rest of your team in an average week. Using year-long stats and projections is an all-too-common error. Using them looking backward is compounding the problem.
Mark Wimer: I think that many fantasy owners care too much about how the other owners in their league perceive their draft - ie, they are afraid to make a pick outside conventional thinking because they don't want to get hassled.
The cold, hard truth is that your opponents really don't care about your team - they care about theirs! So as others have pointed out, don't be a slave to ADP or to your favorite fantasy football expert's draft list - if you really think that a player is set to explode into the top ten at their position this year, take that guy a round or two before most other owners will go for him. If people rag at you for "reaching" or whatever, just ignore them.
Be confident in your projections and draft boards, and let the other owners worry about how "cool" your team is or isn't. All that matters is winning games, not who had the coolest putdowns at the draft party.