High Side by Mark Wimer
Arian Foster enters 2014 during a season of transition for his Texans offense - quarterback Matt Schaub is gone to Oakland, and fellow running back/rival running back Ben Tate is gone to Cleveland. Former head coach Gary Kubiak has been replaced by Bill O'Brien. With great change comes uncertainty, and I believe this uncertainty factor is depressing Foster's perceived value in the fantasy community. Add in the fact that Foster missed half of the 2013 season due to a back injury/surgery, and there is another item that is further increasing the uncertainty about Foster as of mid-summer. There is an opportunity here for fantasy owners to draft a top-five, every-down running back at a discount, which doesn't happen very often, friends.
Foster underwent back surgery in November of 2013, missing the final eight games of the season. However, he was medically cleared by the team's doctors on March 16, 2014 and participated in May OTAs with the team. On May 21 Foster declared himself 'healthy and raring to go' after praising new head coach Bill O'Brien's offense as 'very versatile'. Foster appears on track to fully participate in training camp/regular season. Though back injuries are tricky to rehabilitate, it certainly appears that Foster is past the problem that marred his 2013 campaign.
Adding to my optimism about Foster's 2014 campaign is the openly-stated opinions of his new coach that 1). free agent acquisition Andre Brown is only an 'early-down' player (Brown is clearly in a subordinate, back-up role rather than a time-share threat like the departed Ben Tate) and 2). Foster is slated to fulfill the Kevin Faulk/Danny Woodhead role in the O'Brien offense. What all of the above means is that Foster will be heavily involved in the passing game as well as carrying the ball as the clear lead back in Houston this year. 20 touches per game seems like a floor for Foster in the above-described paradigm, which should put him well above 320 touches on the football during the 2014 season. With that many opportunities to advance the football, Foster should easily finish the year among the top-five fantasy running backs in the nation.
Further cementing my optimism about Foster's role in the Texans offense this year is the depth chart at quarterback - Ryan Fitzpatrick, Case Keenum, T.J. Yates and Tom Savage are not going to overshadow Foster in this offense. Andre Johnson is definitely not thrilled with the options this year, as evidenced by his public statements and absence from OTAs. All evidence points toward the offense running through Foster during 2014.
During the two full seasons Foster has completed so far during his career, Foster posted 327/1,616/8 rushing and 66/604/2 receiving (2010) and 351/1,411/7 rushing and 40/217/2 receiving (2012). He was the first-ranked and second-ranked fantasy back in the land during those two seasons - and the 2014 season may actually be MORE favorable for him than 2010 or 2012. Foster is clearly in a position to bounce back in a big way after his shortened 2013 season.
Foster will likely be near or at the top of the running backs fantasy point tallies when we close the book on the 2014 season. Savvy fantasy owners will scoop him up at a discount this year and smile all the way to their league's trophy presentation.
Low Side by Chad Parsons
Arian Foster is coming off an injury-riddled season where he was limited to eight games and at a stunted production level compared to his prime 2010-2012 years. Foster's three-year peak included 47 total touchdowns and over 1,100 regular season touches. In 2013, Foster was on pace for 286 touches and four touchdowns. Arian Foster's age 24-26 run mirrored that of Shaun Alexander, Chris Johnson, and Ahman Green in recent memory. Of those three, just Shaun Alexander had anything but a significant fall-off at age 28 onward. The only other running backs with similar stretches in the last eight seasons were Maurice Jones-Drew and Chris Johnson. Foster represents part of the dying breed of workhorse backs on their way out of the NFL landscape.
From my historical research, age 28 really begins the steep decline for difference-making running backs as a whole. Age 24-27 is the peak range and that span is cut by more than half at age 28. That is a dramatic drop at a singular data point. This is among running backs with 1,000-yard rushing seasons in their profile, so this is using only the best runners statistically for the past 25 years. Is Arian Foster the exception to the general trend? That is a dicey investment. While many are still productive at age 28 (55% produce fantasy value above baseline according to profootballreference.com data), the upside is not there. That translate into more RB10-24 finishes rather than the peaks of top-10 years already in the rear view of these former studs.
Looking at the age curve of Arian Foster the past three seasons, Herschel Walker has symmetry; so does Maurice Jones-Drew. Neither one touched even 15 PPR PPG in a future season. That puts Arian Foster in the exact realm of the historical trend discussed above: RB10-24. Considering his early average draft position is around the RB8-10 level, Foster's upside is reflected in the price more than the potential downside. That makes Foster a 2014 early-round investment that contains more risk than stability and upside.