Reading the Defense: Defensive Line Tiers [First 2015 Update]

Photo: USA Today Sports

WHY TIERS?

Rank lists and cheatsheets can be deceiving when they're presented without commentary. Our rankings have been vastly improved by adding staffer comments, but it can be hard to see the all-important context in the consensus rankings and sheets. It's critical to know where a significant drop-off in fantasy value occurs. A simple rank list can't tell you if the DL4 is closer in value to the DL10 than the DL3. A cheatsheet can't tell you if the ranker feels the LB10 is a boom-bust play with LB2 upside and LB40 downside while the LB11 has a much narrower range of expectation.

That's where tiers are helpful.

Using tiers allows you to lump and split players in context. Using tiers can help keep you on the right side of draft runs. Seeing that you have five linebackers of equal value left on your board might prompt you to take a player at another position. Noting that there's only one wide receiver left before a major drop in value will show you when you must draft a position sooner than expected. A tiered draft board keeps you from making panicked decisions while on the clock.

How to Use the Tiers

Note 1: These tiers are based on 2014 expectation only. I stopped producing dynasty rankings years ago when it became clear I weighted the current season significantly more than future years. In deeper dynasty leagues, I'll save a roster slot for a strong developmental prospect but will otherwise use these tiers as my primary roster philosophy. I'll include a separate dynasty stash tier at the end of each positional article.

Note 2: I'm basing positional classifications on the MFL database (which syncs to the Rotoworld depth charts later in the offseason). Early in the offseason, I'll deviate from the Rotoworld depth chart when I'm reasonably certain a positional change is coming that Rotoworld will reflect later in the offseason.

Note 3: I will add a column to address trends inside and throughout the tiers in future articles. I'll add a ^^^^ for those players making a move up in my tiers and vvvv for those players who have dropped since the previous tier release. For reference, you'll be able to see the earlier versions of these tier articles within the IDP article list, but the trend column should help you see where player movement is happening within the tiers at a quick glance. I'll also be including an ADP column. The ADP number will be an average of our FBG rankings, the FantasyPros Consensus Rankings, and ADP data from drafts at MFL.

Finally, the date on this article represents the last time the tiers were updated. Each update will be published as a stand-alone article. Make sure you are viewing the most recent tier article by checking the complete IDP article list here.

That's a necessary, but way too long, introduction to the important stuff. Thanks for bearing with me.

EARLY DL STRATEGY THOUGHTS

13 of 32 teams project as a base 4-3 right now. Six of them -- Tampa Bay, Oakland, Seattle, Jacksonville, Dallas, Atlanta -- don't have a defensive end with enough upside to warrant a clear above replacement level mention right now. Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, Demarcus Ware and Mario Williams are either currently listed as defensive linemen on Rotoworld or are very likely to be reclassified by the end of the summer. Jerry Hughes is at high risk of reclassification if he re-signs in Buffalo or signing as an outside linebacker in free agency.

Those issues really thin out the top tiers right now. But there's a solid group of higher floor talents and some room for a few players to separate themselves as high upside talents who aren't likely to be drafted inside the top ten, as Everson Griffen and Jerry Hughes did in 2014.

Of course, there's a path that will allow you to avoid any messiness in the defensive line tiers this year. And you should program your GPS to take it now.

Tier Supernatural | J.J. Watt

Winning in fantasy football is all about filling your lineup spots with the most relative value possible. Watt is the definition of relative value. It took a 50 solo, 19 sack season from Robert Quinn to get close to Watt in 2013. In both 2012 and 2014, Watt was more than 50 points ahead of his nearest defensive end competition in balanced leagues and doubled the value of the DL12 in both seasons. His 2013 season wasn't quite as impressive, but Watt was still strikingly good relative value. That type of sustained value has never been seen in fantasy football at any position.

Two years ago, I wrote:

If you feel...strongly about Watt, forget about regression to the mean (both for Watt and his competition) and strongly consider taking Watt in the first two rounds of your draft.

Yes, the first two rounds.

I'll go a step further this year. You should strongly consider taking Watt in the first round -- in any format -- this year. 

(Let me clarify that. There are scoring systems where the raw value of an IDP is so low they may as well not be included in the lineup. In those leagues, you can win by not drafting an IDP.)

Not just the first round. The first overall pick. Watt could be injured or have a down year. So could Le'Veon Bell, Calvin Johnson, Odell Beckham, Rob Gronkowski or whomever else you're considering with your top pick. Other than Gronkowski, none of those players have a legitimate chance to nearly double the yearly production of other players in the top tiers.

I recognize you can get a DL1 rounds and rounds later than you can get a RB1 or WR1. But the relative value in Watt cannot be overstated. There's enough resistance here that you may not have to invest the first round pick to secure Watt. But if you let someone else draft Watt anytime after the second round, I think you're making a critical mistake this year.

Tier 1 | Elite DE1

It wasn't a great year for Quinn, but if that's his floor you could do a whole lot worse. Pierre-Paul isn't far behind him. I'm including Hardy here on talent, but league discipline is still a major factor. A multi-game suspension seems likely for Hardy, and he'll be at risk of further discipline with any future missteps.

tier 2 | elite de1 upside

I'm having a hard time keeping Ansah out of the tier above. I'm not worried at all about the potential loss of Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley. Ansah is a stud talent. But I'm also having a hard time convincing myself to ignore the durability questions. Dunlap is still just 26 years old and in the prime of his career. Consistent pressure off the edge is still within reach for him.

tier 3a | DE2 with DE1 upside

I still believe Wake and Jordan can be DE1 caliber fantasy players in 2015. Their floor is lower than it's been in recent seasons, however, so they may have a higher ADP than I'll be willing to invest. Richardson and Wilkerson are the highest floor options among the third tier 5-technique talents.

tier 3b | high variance de2

There is lots of risk in this tier right now. Each of the four ends I've grouped here has one glaring concern -- classification, consistency, snap count, or a combination of the three.

tier 3c | high floor de2

I don't believe any of these players have a strong enough chance at double digit sack upside to slot in a higher tier. But each has strong single game upside with a good season-long floor.

tier 4 | de3 w/ matchup value

I'll populate this tier with guys like Chris Long (who may deserve a look among the High Variance DE2 tier) and Brian Robison and others as the season approaches.

tier jumpers | redraft watch list

I can't resist slotting Graham at the top of this tier. Ayers is the other "most likely to ascend" player on this list. The others will have to prove themselves in camp and preseason games to move up.

rosterable DT

There aren't a lot of defensive tackles I'm willing to roster this time of year. Feel free to add your own favorites, especially in deeper, DT-required leagues.

Dynasty Stash

Prospect Watch

Follow and ask questions on Twitter @JeneBramel. Reading the Defense will be a regular feature this offseason with free agent commentary, draft prospect previews, tier discussion, links to our offseason IDP roundtable podcasts and much more. Subscribe to The Audible on iTunes or download our IDP podcast here.