The Contrarian: FanDuel Week 5

Photo: USA Today Sports

Before getting into Week 5, we feel it necessary to address the current situation facing our beloved industry, and how relates to this space. Obviously, given the news in recent days, ownership percentages are a crucial part of a winning DFS strategy. While the sites refine their processes and systems for how they handle and protect their internal data (be sure to read their statement on the matter), we'll continue to do our best bringing you estimated ownership percentages through our independent calculations and research. 

Going forward, we’ll have to leave our comfort zones a little bit. So be sure to protect your bankrolls and limit how much you invest as a contrarian. And definitely use the Interactive Value Chart as a part of your process. It incorporates the core of your roster with the ease of lineup optimization and top-20 stack rankings. Complete with strategy guides for both cash and tournament games, you won’t find a more comprehensive daily fantasy tool anywhere. Use it and abuse it. You can also check out our Cracking FanDuel blog for more information and updates

The numbers presented in the tables below are taken from a $2 Thursday night GPP. We can use these exposure percentages to assist our ownership projections for Sunday/Monday GPPs. Doing so increases our accuracy and provides a clearer picture of groupthink—something we’ll almost always try to avoid.

On to Week 5:  

quarterbacks

Through four weeks of the 2015 season, Alex Smith ranks as QB12 in FanDuel scoring. He piled up 386 yards on the Bengals defense and nearly hit tournament value despite not scoring a touchdown. This week he gets the Chicago Bears at home, who have allowed more touchdowns to quarterbacks than every team except his own. He’s a solid $6,900 GPP option.

We get that the crowd is shy after seeing the decline of Peyton Manning. But if anything, Manning has proven that he can still pick apart a bad defense and justify his salary in any given week. The Vikings kept Manning’s crew in check last week, but the Raiders won’t be as successful. We like stacking him against a bad defense, even on the road, with one of his receivers while the crowd is scared.

We finally saw the deep ball develop for the Eagles last week. Sam Bradford connected on throws of 62, 45, 39 and 30 yards in route to his best fantasy output of the season (QB2). Expecting long touchdowns is foolish, but the Saints have allowed more fantasy points per attempt than any other team. We like Bradford and his mid-priced salary to take advantage of a bad defense and turn in another solid performance.

It’s clear that the offensive line in Seattle is a mess. As such, Russell Wilson is constantly evacuating the pocket and either scrambling or throwing on the run. The running game hasn’t been effective either, pushing a lot of responsibility onto Wilson’s shoulders. The Bengals defense has, for the most part, been good against opposing quarterbacks, but if Smith can dump 386 yards on them, we’re guessing Wilson can find similar success. He’s a liability for $8,200 so the crowd will stay far away.

running backs

The crowd has backed off of Darren Sproles, realizing that the Eagles running game just isn’t very good. But for the way he’s used, on special teams, as a runner and as a receiver, he still represents a threat to score multiple touchdowns. Plus, there’s the added bonus of a bit of revenge as he hosts his old team. The Saints have been decent against the run, but for $5,700, Sproles is a big play away from returning tournament value every week.

Even though he ranks 10^th in popularity this week, Danny Woodhead is under-owned at 4.9 percent. With the Chargers likely missing a chunk of their receiving corps, Woodhead is a natural solution and should see an increase in snaps. He is currently the seventh highest scoring running back of the season.

In the bargain bin and full of risk is Chris Thompson. He looked sharp against the Eagles last week both as a runner and a receiver. He earned a large role, trailing Alfred Morris in snaps 35-32. This week Washington will need him even more as the Falcons are sure to force them into comeback mode. Atlanta has allowed more fantasy points per touch to running backs than any other team, and has allowed more receiving yards to running backs than any other team. This sets up perfectly for Thompson. His $5,100 salary does wonders for our rosters.

wide receivers

The Buccaneers offense has hardly been a source of consistent fantasy production, mostly thanks to their rookie quarterback. But this week they host the Jaguars and Mike Evans is healthy. Jacksonville isn’t terrible against the pass, but they don’t have anyone like Josh Norman to blanket cover Evans. We’ll take advantage of his relatively low salary and fade the crowd.

With the return of Jay Cutler comes the return of a promising passing attack from the Bears. Eddie Royal saw 10 targets last week and converted seven of them in to 54 yards and one touchdown. Should Alshon Jeffery be held out again, Royal stands to see a ton of targets against a vulnerable secondary. The Chiefs have allowed more yards and touchdowns to receivers than all other teams. Royal will cost us just $5,500.

Just like we love Bradford, we also love Nelson Agholor. He continues to see targets and leads all Eagles receivers in playing time. Hopefully last week’s performance from their passing attack is a sign of many fantasy points to come. Agholor has yet have a breakout game this season. The Saints look good in the box score against receivers, allowing the sixth fewest points, but a stretch against teams like Tampa Bay, Carolina and Dallas—all bad passing offenses—will have that effect. Pencil in Agholor as a high-risk, high-reward GPP play.

Around that same price point, we have Willie Snead, who has forced his way into a WR2 role for Drew Brees. Over the last three games Snead has 19 targets, including six last week, in which he caught all six for 89 yards. The Eagles have allowed the fourth most yards and rank fourth in fantasy points allowed per game for receivers. The only threat to Snead’s game is his usage in the red zone, as most of that work goes to running backs. But he leads all Saints receivers with three looks and should see more in a high-scoring matchup against the Eagles.    

tight ends

Staying with the Eagles/Saints game, Zach Ertz makes for an interesting option. The Saints have allowed more points to tight ends than all but two other teams. He may not be as involved in the Eagles offense as many thought he would be, but he’s third in targets and has three red zone looks. His price is the lowest it has been all season. This is a great week for a Bradford/Ertz stack.

We can’t expect the Bills/Titans game to turn into a high-scoring shootout, but we can expect Delanie Walker to be heavily involved no matter what. He has the third most targets for any player on the Titans, despite missing all of Week 2 and part of Week 1. The Bills defense isn’t a walk in the park, but Walker will be plenty busy, rewarding his $5,400 investment.

Kirk Cousins relied heavily on Jordan Reed, who has been ruled out for Week 5. Enter the bargain bin to find Derek Carrier. We don’t know a lot about Carrier from a pro level except to say he’s filling in a position that is targeted a lot in the Washington offense, and he has very promising metrics. One thing we can be sure of is that Cousins and Co. will be forced to pass a lot in this game, making Carrier an interesting GPP option for the price of a cheap kicker.

defense

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has allowed a lot of points but not a lot of yards, ranking 10^th in that category with the fewest. They also have the 10^th most sacks and face a Jaguars unit that struggles to do much of anything. We like them at home with a low over/under (42 points).

The same argument can be made for the Jaguars opposite Jameis Winston, who is a turnover machine. Jacksonville has only three takeaways this season but that should change on Sunday. Either one of these defenses make for a cheap punt play in tournaments.

But even better, and cheaper, is the Titans defense. Fresh off of a bye and hosting a team that may be without their best receiver and will be without their two starting running backs, the Titans look to be a good play. They rank sixth in yards per game allowed and have four interceptions to six touchdowns. You won’t find a better option for $4,100.

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