WHY TIERS?
Rank lists and cheatsheets can be deceiving when they're presented without commentary. Our rankings have been vastly improved by adding staffer comments, but it can be hard to see the all-important context in the consensus rankings and sheets. It's critical to know where a significant drop-off in fantasy value occurs. A simple rank list can't tell you if the DL4 is closer in value to the DL10 than the DL3. A cheatsheet can't tell you if the ranker feels the LB10 is a boom-bust play with LB2 upside and LB40 downside while the LB11 has a much narrower range of expectation.
That's where tiers are helpful.
Using tiers -- with or without commentary -- allows you to lump and split players in context. Using tiers can help keep you on the right side of draft runs. Seeing that you have five linebackers on your board might prompt you to take a player at another position. Noting that there's only one wide receiver left before a major drop in value will show you when you must draft a position sooner than expected. A tiered draft board keeps you from making panicked decisions while on the clock.
These tiers are based on 2014 expectation only and I'm basing positional classifications on the MFL database (which syncs to the Rotoworld depth charts later in the offseason). I will include a separate dynasty stash tier at the end of each positional article.
(The date on this article represents the last time the tiers were updated. Make sure you are viewing the most recent tier article by checking the complete IDP article list here.)
THIS IS THE POST-ota and minicamp UPDATE (early july)
We are now through the minicamp season and have seen each team's depth chart for the first time. There's still much left to learn, however, as some veteran players sat out OTAs with injuries. We've also seen the first iteration of changes to positional classifications at MFL. There's some inertia in those first movements, but not all of them should be considered set in stone.
Minicamps depth charts and reports shuffled a few players among these tiers, but the first days of training camp will answer the pressing questions that are keeping the tier jumper and watch list groups so deep.
I've added a column to address trends inside and throughout the tiers. I'll add a ^^^^ for those players making a move up in my tiers and vvvv for those players who have dropped since the previous tier release (June 1). For reference, I'm going to preserve the earlier versions of these tier articles, but the trend column should help you see where player movement is happening within the tiers at a quick glance.
In this post-minicamp set of tier articles, I'm also adding an ADP column. The ADP number (snapshot taken on July 5) will be an average of our FBG rankings, the FantasyPros Consensus Rankings and ADP data from recent drafts at MFL. If a player does not have an ADP in his column, it means he wasn't ranked in the top 60 in at least two of the three consensus rank lists.
TIER 1 | ELITE DL1
This tier includes a group of defensive ends that are high ceiling, high floor options in any league setup. There may be players in the next tier you're comfortable elevating, but you'll have trouble convincing yourself that a player from this group is less than a strong DL1.
| J.J. Watt | <> | DL1 | Consecutive seasons of 65+ solos, near lock to "regress" to mid double digit sacks |
| Robert Quinn | <> | DL2 | Outscored Watt in balanced scoring systems in 2013, breakout season was no fluke |
| Chandler Jones | <> | DL3 | Elite fantasy talent with room to improve as pass rusher, home stat crew increases assists |
| Greg Hardy | <> | DL4 | Release the Kraken!! Three straight seasons near 40 solos, elite pass rusher |
TIER 2 | ELITE DL1 UPSIDE
This is the beauty of the tier approach. I have the higher floor players listed nearer the top here, but there's not much difference between the top of this group and the bottom.
| Cameron Wake | <> | DL5 | Sack numbers didn't show it, but still dominant last year before MCL sprain slowed him |
| Rob Ninkovich | <> | DL8 | Quietly a lock for 40 solos and 7-8 sacks, NE stat crew helped with 49 assists last year |
| DeMarcus Ware | <> | DL13 | Will see more pass rush chances in DEN, top three upside if neck/elbow healthy |
| Calais Campbell | <> | DL9 | New coordinator didn't affect production last year, safe 45-8 floor with 50-10 upside |
| Mario Williams | <> | DL10 | Again classified at DE, good fit for Schwartz scheme |
| Cameron Jordan | <> | DL12 | Dominant 5-tech pass rusher, solo tackles will rebound, high floor play with upside |
| Carlos Dunlap | <> | DL11 | Frustratingly inconsistent and durability risk but has elite potential |
| Lamarr Houston | <> | DL19 | Move to Chicago will not hurt solid tackle numbers, should see more pass rush opportunity |
| Michael Johnson | <> | DL20 | Tough to slot as contract motivation and Zimmer effect gone, but talent is there |
| Jason Pierre-Paul | <> | DL6 | Slotting the 25-year old here is a hedge: If healthy, he's elite; if not, look out below. |
| Ezekiel Ansah | <> | DL14 | Injuries limited development last year but could make Quinn / Jones type leap in 2014 |
TIER 3A | DL2 W/ DL1 UPSIDE
In a simple rank list, the players in this group would be mixed with those in the High Variance DL2 and High Floor DL2 tiers. There isn't much difference between Charles Johnson (in this tier) and Carlos Dunlap (in the tier above). And that's just one example. In general, I think the players in the tier above have a higher ceiling than those here. It's arguable that those higher ceiling players also have a lower floor than the top players in this tier. When you make your final tier lists, do so with your own draft philosophy in mind. If you'd rather have the higher percentage player, move those players you don't trust down into a more appropriate tier.
| Olivier Vernon | <> | DL15 | OTA reports were strong, but not sure he can repeat last year 46-11.5 effort |
| Muhammad Wilkerson | <> | DL7 | Arguably should slot alongside Campbell and Jordan as all-around 3-4 monster |
| Charles Johnson | <> | DL16 | Still stud pass rusher, but durability and three years of Freeney-esque solo tackle worry |
| Everson Griffen | <> | DL29 | If you like to chase upside, Griffen's per snap profile suggests breakout is coming |
| Justin Tuck | <> | DL22 | Frustrated fantasy owners for years, but 2013 mini-renaissance has renewed hope |
| Adrian Clayborn | <> | DL23 | Another year from ACL surgery, to benefit from strong scheme and surrounding cast |
| Jared Allen | <> | DL17 | Once uber-elite tackle numbers are long gone, pass rush rate stats remain strong |
| Julius Peppers** | <> | DL38 | Will play Elephant role, currently still classified at DL, will have value if position sticks |
TIER 3B | HIGH VARIANCE DL2
In a simple rank list, the players in this group would be mixed with those in the DL2 with DL1 Upside and High Floor DL2 tiers. This group is scoring system sensitive. They'd rank higher in this large tier in sack-heavy scoring leagues, lower in tackle-heavy systems. Willie Young and Wallace Gilberry are particularly attractive and will move up if OTA reports suggest they will get a heavy rotational role and can be projected to see 700-800 snaps.
| Chris Long | <> | DL24 | Could put up 3-4 sacks in any week, but long stretches of fantasy purgatory still likely |
| Wallace Gilberry | <> | DL37 | Did well in larger role, snap count dependent on development of Margus Hunt |
| Jerry Hughes | ^^^^ | DL47 | Quiet 9.5 sacks last year, locked in as DE starter after strong OTA weeks |
| Cliff Avril | <> | DL33 | Great scheme and more snaps this year, but tackle numbers too inconsistent to rank higher |
| Willie Young | <> | DL60 | May be destined for situational role again behind Houston and Allen, limits his upside |
| Lamarr Woodley | <> | DL41 | Very low floor due to chronic hamstring issues, if stays on field will outperform this tier |
| Brian Robison | <> | DL36 | Good year-end numbers, but not talented enough to produce consistent all-around stats |
TIER 3C | HIGH FLOOR DL2
In a simple rank list, the players in this group would be mixed with those in the DL2 with DL1 Upside and High Variance DL2 tiers. This tier is light right now. I like the ceiling of Wilkerson, Griffen, Tuck and Clayborn too much to drop them into this group. And I don't like the floor of the large group of ends in the tier that follows.
| Mathias Kiwanuka | ^^^^ | DL65 | Talented, underrated but not elite; OTA alignments suggest 700+ snaps possible |
| Michael Bennett | <> | DL28 | Could finish in top 15 if cashes in on his increased snap count and scheme |
| Sheldon Richardson | <> | DL21 | Won't generate pass rush stats needed for elite tier status, strong high floor target |
| Cameron Heyward | <> | DL35 | Still developing, flashed consistency in second half of 2013 after returning from injury |
TIER 4 | DL3 W/ MATCHUP VALUE
This group looks weaker than recent years. But we're now over 30 players deep in the tier list -- even if Umenyiora and Peppers are reclassified to outside linebacker as I expect. If you're drafting today, especially in dynasty leagues, ignore this group in favor of the tier jumper and dynasty watch lists to follow.
| Chris Clemons | vvvv | DL40 | Arguably best pass rusher in Jacksonville, snap count and health not assured |
| Dion Jordan | ^^^^ | DL52 | Suspended four games, was impressing this offseason but snap count remains question |
| Osi Umenyiora** | vvvv | DL45 | Rotational player at risk of reclassification to linebacker, be wary until depth chart final |
| Jurrell Casey | <> | DL30 | Officially re-classified to DE, talented enough to be lesser version of Calais Campbell |
| Fletcher Cox | <> | DL43 | Still waiting for breakout but tools and snap count will be there |
| Justin Smith | <> | DL49 | Doesn't put up elite combo of solos and sacks anymore, SF depth improving, rotation likely |
| Arthur Jones | <> | DL67 | Better football player than stat compiler, not every-week option |
| Haloti Ngata | <> | DL53 | Reclassified to DE, durability questions are hard to ignore |
| George Selvie | <> | DL44 | Good scheme fit, listed here due to open depth chart; has talent/durability questions |
| Mike Daniels | <> | DL66 | Potentially dominant pass rusher, would have more value if classified at DT |
| Jeremy Mincey | <> | DL50 | Opportunity for high snap count gets him on the list |
TIER JUMPERS | REDRAFT WATCH LIST
These players will move into a tier based on their performance in OTAs, minicamps and early training camp. If you've got roster space, consider this your pre-camp news sleeper list.
| Margus Hunt | <> | DL56 | To see larger rotational role, could be every week starter if wins majority of base snaps |
| Damontre Moore | <> | DL39 | Still needs development, DL2 upside if ready for base defensive role |
| Devin Taylor | <> | DL55 | May see 700 snaps with Willie Young gone, offensive lines will focus on teammates |
| Demarcus Lawrence | <> | DL48 | Drafted into open depth chart, good scheme but needs development; low ceiling flyer |
| Derek Wolfe | <> | DL61 | Could have matchup upside if gets snaps opposite Ware/Miller |
| Anthony Spencer | <> | DL64 | Now running after long recovery from microfracture surgery, still may start on PUP |
| Jared Crick | <> | Texans did not add DE depth in draft, could get 700 snaps alongside Watt / Clowney |
DYNASTY STASH
This list was short before the draft. Unfortunately, the draft didn't add many prospects to the mix. Shallow dynasty owners will have some of the above tier available to them. Deep dynasty owners should be looking at any rookie from 2013 still on an NFL roster (e.g. Cornelius Washington, Malliciah Goodman).
| Kareem Martin | <> | Significant risk of eventual LB classification, Arizona will look for best fit | |
| Quanterus Smith | <> | Now nearly two years post ACL surgery, good depth chart opportunity | |
| Kony Ealy | <> | Stuck behind Hardy and Johnson but their off-field and contract issues could give him 2015 chance | |
| Tank Carradine | <> | Up to 290 pounds, transitioning to 3-4 DE, health and edge rush ability at higher weight unknown | |
| Scott Crichton | <> | Will develop behind Griffen and Robison, Zimmer not shy about rotating young talent into mix | |
| Datone Jones | <> | Showed ability to handle 3-4 end role at UCLA, not yet convinced he has viable fantasy ceiling | |
| Chris Smith | <> | Great fit as possible long term LEO in Jacksonville, may not be strong or quick enough for NFL |
DT TARGETS
The top three names on this list -- Geno Atkins, Gerald McCoy and Ndamukong Suh would slot in the High Variance DL2 tier. The rest of the list is part of the matchup cloud in combined DE/DT leagues. Dynasty leaguers in DT-required leagues shouldn't hold a roster spot for anyone not on this list if there are waiver wire options of value at other positions.
| Geno Atkins | <> | DL18 | Must prove explosiveness still there after ACL injury last year |
| Gerald McCoy | <> | DL25 | Primo scheme, entering prime of career, overall DT1 / DL2 finish possible |
| Ndamukong Suh | <> | DL26 | Didn't finish in pocket enough last season, improvement from Ansah would help |
| Kyle Williams | <> | DL31 | Quietly productive despite injury and scheme changes |
| Henry Melton | <> | DL42 | Great fit with Marinelli and Tampa-2 undertackle role; injury concern |
| Nick Fairley | <> | DL34 | Will become top tier fantasy DT if tackle numbers improve |
| Marcell Dareus | <> | DL27 | If tackle counts remain high outside of Pettine system, should remain strong DT1 |
| Dontari Poe | <> | DL32 | Sacks fell off cliff after Week 5 but pressure per snap and tackle counts did not |
| Antonio Smith | <> | DL63 | Now slated for 3-tech role in Oakland, strong numbers coming if free agent pieces fit |
| Sharrif Floyd | ^^^^ | DL68 | New scheme, Zimmer should be positive for development, played w/ first team in OTA |
| Aaron Donald | <> | DL46 | Stud interior pass rusher to play alongside Quinn, may be seriously underrating him here |
| Star Lotulelei | <> | DL59 | Would be higher if pass rush was better, breakout potential here |
| Jay Ratliff | <> | Good scheme with Bears, high variance DT2 play | |
| Linval Joseph | <> | DL58 | Zimmer gets most out of his tackle rotation, has 40-6 upside |
| Sylvester Williams | <> | DL57 | Improved as 2013 progressed, may not be elite but upside makes him rosterable |
| Dominique Easley | <> | As disruptive as Donald, similar upside as part of strong DL; injury concern | |
| Michael Brockers | <> | DL62 | Disappointing, but talent and surrounding cast earn him one more benefit of the doubt year |
| Ra'Shede Hageman | <> | Classified as DT - for now - could be loophole to exploit if earns big snaps at DE |
Follow and ask questions on Twitter @JeneBramel. Reading the Defense will be a regular feature this offseason with free agent commentary, draft prospect previews, tier discussion, links to our offseason IDP roundtable podcasts and much more. Subscribe to The Audible on iTunes or download our IDP podcast here.