WHY TIERS?
Rank lists and cheatsheets can be deceiving when they're presented without commentary. Our rankings have been vastly improved by adding staffer comments, but it can be hard to see the all-important context in the consensus rankings and sheets. It's critical to know where a significant drop-off in fantasy value occurs. A simple rank list can't tell you if the DL4 is closer in value to the DL10 than the DL3. A cheatsheet can't tell you if the ranker feels the LB10 is a boom-bust play with LB2 upside and LB40 downside while the LB11 has a much narrower range of expectation.
That's where tiers are helpful.
Using tiers allows you to lump and split players in context. Using tiers can help keep you on the right side of draft runs. Seeing that you have five linebackers of equal value left on your board might prompt you to take a player at another position. Noting that there's only one wide receiver left before a major drop in value will show you when you must draft a position sooner than expected. A tiered draft board keeps you from making panicked decisions while on the clock.
Note 1: These tiers are based on 2014 expectation only and I'm basing positional classifications on the MFL database (which syncs to the Rotoworld depth charts later in the offseason). I will include a separate dynasty stash tier at the end of each positional article.
Note 2: The date on this article represents the last time the tiers were updated. Make sure you are viewing the most recent tier article by checking the complete IDP article list here.
THIS IS THE MID TRAINING CAMP UPDATE (mid august)
I'll be updating this feature twice more before the season starts, once after the third preseason games and then a final update before the season begins. Any changes in this update come from watching the first two preseason games, listening to camp press conferences and examining the first team released depth charts earlier in camp.
I've added a column to address trends inside and throughout the tiers. I'll add a ^^^^ for those players making a move up in my tiers and vvvv for those players who have dropped since the previous tier release (August 2). For reference, I'm going to preserve the earlier versions of these tier articles, but the trend column should help you see where player movement is happening within the tiers at a quick glance.
I've also included an ADP column. The ADP number (snapshot taken on August 18) will be an average of our FBG rankings (top 80), the FantasyPros Consensus Rankings (top 90) and ADP data from all drafts after July 1 at MFL.
TIER 1 | ELITE DL1
I've refined the first three tiers in this update. I believe J.J. Watt, Robert Quinn and Chandler Jones may deserve a mini-tier of their own. I still think Greg Hardy deserves consideration in the top tier, but his suspension is an unknown and I think his floor is a little lower than the top three. I'll have more on the changes in the next two tiers below.
| J.J. Watt | <> | DL1 | Consecutive seasons of 65+ solos, near lock to "regress" to mid double digit sacks |
| Robert Quinn | <> | DL2 | Outscored Watt in balanced scoring systems in 2013, breakout season was no fluke |
| Chandler Jones | <> | DL3 | Elite fantasy talent with room to improve as pass rusher, home stat crew increases assists |
TIER 2A | ELITE DL1 UPSIDE
I've had eleven players in this tier throughout the spring and summer months. As we approach the regular season and see how coordinators are approaching passing downs and see whether the veterans with durability concerns are looking good or not, it's time to drill down and decide who truly has DL1 upside, who has a safe floor and whose range of expectation remains wide. Nitpicking these details is key when you're trying to decide whether to grab a WR5 or RB4 or your first DE in the eighth or ninth round. This group are the players I'm willing to take over a questionable offensive depth play. I'll also consider them over an elite linebacker, especially if I missed out on a top three defensive end.
| Greg Hardy | vvvv | DL4 | Length of likely suspension unknown; three straight seasons near 40 solos, elite pass rusher |
| Jason Pierre-Paul | ^^^^ | DL10 | Looking explosive during preseason, is optimistic about his own health, still only 25 years old |
| Cameron Wake | <> | DL5 | Burst looks to be back in first two preseason games, always a dual tackle - sack threat |
| Rob Ninkovich | <> | DL8 | Quietly a lock for 40 solos and 7-8 sacks, NE stat crew helped with 49 assists last year |
| DeMarcus Ware | <> | DL7 | Will see more pass rush chances in DEN, showing no healthy concerns in preseason |
| Cameron Jordan | <> | DL11 | Dominant 5-tech pass rusher, solo tackles will rebound, high floor play with upside |
TIER 2B | ELITE DL1 UPSIDE W/ HIGH VARIANCE
There's a tier break here in my mind. Each of these defensive ends have elite DL1 upside. But I'm not as confident in their floor projection and/or am worried that they'll put up too many near-zero weeks.
| Carlos Dunlap | <> | DL13 | Frustratingly inconsistent with durability risk but has elite weekly and season-long potential |
| Mario Williams | <> | DL12 | Fits scheme well, solid performer, but now pushing 30 and has periods of inconsistency |
| Michael Johnson | <> | DL20 | Has yet to top 40 solos, only one season of double digit sacks |
| Ezekiel Ansah | <> | DL15 | Injuries continue to limit development but could make Quinn / Jones type leap in 2014 |
TIER 3A | DL2 W/ DL1 UPSIDE
In a simple rank list, the players in this group would be mixed with those in the High Variance DL2 and High Floor DL2 tiers. There isn't much difference between Charles Johnson (in this tier) and Carlos Dunlap (in the tier above). And that's just one example. In general, I think the players in the tier above have a higher ceiling than those here. It's arguable that those higher ceiling players also have a lower floor than the top players in this tier. When you make your final tier lists, do so with your own draft philosophy in mind. If you'd rather have the higher percentage player, move those players you don't trust down into a more appropriate tier.
| Calais Campbell | vvvv | DL6 | Value pick if available outside top ten, but potential for 6-7 sack season a worry |
| Olivier Vernon | <> | DL17 | OTA reports were strong, but not sure he can repeat last year 46-11.5 effort |
| Muhammad Wilkerson | <> | DL9 | May be closer to Jordan than Campbell in pass rush upside |
| Charles Johnson | <> | DL19 | Stud pass rusher, but durability and three years of Freeney-esque low solo tackles |
| Everson Griffen [VALUE] | <> | DL29 | If you like to chase upside, Griffen's per snap profile suggests breakout is coming |
| Justin Tuck | <> | DL22 | Frustrated fantasy owners for years, but 2013 mini-renaissance renews hope |
| Adrian Clayborn | <> | DL26 | Two years from ACL surgery, benefit from strong scheme and surrounding cast |
| Jared Allen | <> | DL16 | Once uber-elite tackle numbers long gone, pass rush rate stats remain strong |
TIER 3B | HIGH VARIANCE DL2
In a simple rank list, the players in this group would be mixed with those in the DL2 with DL1 Upside and High Floor DL2 tiers. This group is scoring system sensitive. They'd rank higher in this large tier in sack-heavy scoring leagues, lower in tackle-heavy systems. Wallace Gilberry and Jerry Hughes represent the best values in this tier and the best chance of DL2+ upside.
| Jerry Hughes [VALUE] | <> | DL36 | Quiet 9.5 sacks last year, locked in as DE starter after strong OTA weeks |
| Chris Long | <> | DL23 | Could put up 3-4 sacks any week, but long stretches of fantasy purgatory still likely |
| Wallace Gilberry | <> | DL38 | Did well in larger role, snap count dependent on development of Margus Hunt |
| Cliff Avril | <> | DL35 | Great scheme, more snaps this year, tackle numbers too inconsistent to rank higher |
| Lamarr Woodley | <> | DL30 | Nary a whisper about his hamstrings in preseason, worth a look as a DL2 but risky |
| Brian Robison | <> | DL31 | Good year-end numbers, not talented enough to produce consistent all-around stats |
TIER 3C | HIGH FLOOR DL2
In a simple rank list, the players in this group would be mixed with those in the DL2 with DL1 Upside and High Variance DL2 tiers. This tier is light right now. I like the ceiling of Wilkerson, Griffen, Tuck and Clayborn too much to drop them into this group. And I don't like the floor of the large group of ends in the tier that follows. While the ADP for Kiwanuka has been slowly rising, it's still criminally low. He's an easy add as your DL4 late in the draft.
| Lamarr Houston | vvvv | DL14 | Still see T15 upside but wasn't willing to draft him at ceiling when mock drafting |
| Mathias Kiwanuka [VALUE] | <> | DL73 | Talented, underrated but not elite; playing in all packages in preseason |
| Michael Bennett | <> | DL27 | Could finish in top 15 if cashes in on his increased snap count and scheme |
| Sheldon Richardson | <> | DL21 | Won't generate pass rush stats needed for elite tier, strong high floor target |
| Cameron Heyward | <> | DL37 | Still developing, more consistent second half of 2013 after returning from injury |
TIER 4 | DL3 W/ MATCHUP VALUE
I noted the relative weakness of the tier throughout the offseason. Now, it's downright ugly. I nearly changed the title of this tier to some version of a watch list. I wouldn't roster anyone in this tier right now. You'll likely be able to roster three players from the above tiers. If you get greedy at other positions in a competitive draft and need early season help, look to exploit a matchup against a weak offensive tackle. Otherwise, leave your DL bench slots open until a smart option or strong trend presents itself.
| Julius Peppers | >> LB | DL39 | Position re-classification is coming, moved to LB tiers |
| Chris Clemons | <> | DL33 | Arguably best pass rusher in Jacksonville, rotating with Branch in preseason games |
| Willie Young | <> | DL85 | Preseason injury, presence of Allen and Houston will limit his snap count early |
| Dion Jordan | <> | DL54 | Suspended four games, impressing this offseason, snap count remains question |
| Andre Branch | <> | DL50 | Resistant to add to tiers, strong offseason play continues though in rotation |
| Jurrell Casey | <> | DL32 | Talented enough to be lesser version of Calais Campbell |
| Osi Umenyiora | <> | DL45 | Unlikely to be reclassified to LB now, but situational rusher only |
| Fletcher Cox | <> | DL47 | Still waiting for breakout but tools and snap count will be there |
| Jeremy Mincey | <> | DL49 | Cowboys currently rotating line series for series in preseason |
| Justin Smith | <> | DL42 | No longer elite combo of solos/sacks, SF depth improving, rotation likely |
| Margus Hunt | <> | DL75 | Larger rotational role, seeing nickel pass rusher snaps and some base snaps |
| Haloti Ngata | <> | DL53 | Reclassified to DE, durability questions are hard to ignore |
| Mike Daniels | <> | DL80 | Potentially dominant pass rusher, would have more value if classified at DT |
| Jason Jones | <> | DL66 | Talented, good fit for scheme, if knees stay healthy will have matchup value |
| Arthur Jones | vvvv | DL78 | Better football player than stat compiler, not every-week option |
| George Selvie | vvvv | DL40 | Rotating in preseason games, needs volume to be matchup play |
TIER 5 | REDRAFT WATCH LIST
This is your DL2+ upside watch list. There isn't a clear role to enough playing time for this group, but they will be rosterable if circumstances put them into a 500+ snap role later in the season.
| Damontre Moore | <> | DL48 | Still needs development, DL2 upside if ready for base defensive role |
| Malik Jackson | <> | DL51 | Wolfe back with starters, keep on speed dial if DEN has injury along DL |
| Devin Taylor | <> | DL60 | May see 700 snaps with Willie Young gone, offensive lines will focus on teammates |
| Derek Wolfe | vvvv | DL52 | Not a dynamic player right now, young bucks nipping at his heels |
| Anthony Spencer | vvvv | DL67 | Now running after long recovery from microfracture surgery, still may start on PUP |
| Jared Crick | vvvv | Starting, but won't put up pass rush numbers necessary to be matchup play |
DYNASTY STASH
This list was short before the draft. Unfortunately, the draft didn't add many prospects to the mix. Shallow dynasty owners will have some of the above tier available to them. Deep dynasty owners should be looking at any rookie from 2013 still on an NFL roster (e.g. Cornelius Washington, Malliciah Goodman).
| Quanterus Smith | ^^^^ | Killing second team offensive lines, may be pre-emptive roster in dynasty leagues now | |
| Tank Carradine | ^^^^ | DL77 | Up to 290 pounds, transitioning to 3-4 DE, periods of dominance in preseason games |
| Demarcus Lawrence | vvvv | DL52 | Broken foot in camp, needed snaps and developmental time to have fantasy value |
| Kareem Martin | <> | Significant risk of eventual LB classification, Arizona will look for best fit | |
| Kony Ealy | <> | Stuck behind Hardy and Johnson but will get 2015 chance | |
| Scott Crichton | <> | Will develop behind Griffen and Robison, Zimmer not shy about rotating young talent | |
| Datone Jones | <> | Showed ability to handle 3-4 end role at UCLA, tough to see viable fantasy ceiling | |
| Chris Smith | <> | Great fit as possible long term LEO in Jacksonville, early camp news has been good | |
| Will Clarke | ^^^^ | Won't have value in 2014, but file away on your long range watch list |
DT TARGETS
The top three names on this list -- Geno Atkins, Gerald McCoy and Ndamukong Suh would slot in the High Variance DL2 tier. The rest of the list is part of the matchup cloud in combined DE/DT leagues. Dynasty leaguers in DT-required leagues shouldn't hold a roster spot for anyone not on this list if there are waiver wire options of value at other positions.
| Gerald McCoy | <> | DL24 | Primo scheme, entering prime of career, overall DT1 / DL2 finish possible |
| Ndamukong Suh | <> | DL25 | Didn't finish in pocket enough last season, improvement from Ansah would help |
| Kyle Williams | <> | DL28 | Quietly productive despite injury and scheme changes |
| Geno Atkins | vvvv | DL18 | On active roster now, likely to have limited role early in season |
| Henry Melton | <> | DL46 | Great fit with Marinelli and Tampa-2 undertackle role; injury concern |
| Dontari Poe [VALUE] | ^^^^ | DL41 | Sacks fell off cliff after Week 5 but pressure per snap and tackle counts did not |
| Nick Fairley | <> | DL43 | Will become top tier fantasy DT if tackle numbers improve |
| Marcell Dareus | <> | DL34 | If tackle counts remain high outside of Pettine system, should remain strong DT1 |
| Aaron Donald | ^^^^ | DL44 | Little inconsistent in preseason, but surrounding cast will boost rookie numbers |
| Antonio Smith | <> | DL74 | Now slated for 3-tech role in Oakland, upside matchup play |
| Sharrif Floyd | <> | DL93 | New scheme, Zimmer positive for development, played w/ first team in OTA |
| Star Lotulelei | <> | DL71 | Would be higher if pass rush was better, breakout potential here |
| Jay Ratliff | <> | DL83 | Good scheme with Bears, high variance DT2 play |
| Linval Joseph | <> | DL70 | Zimmer gets most out of his tackle rotation, has 40-6 upside |
| Sylvester Williams | <> | DL58 | Improved as 2013 progressed, may not be elite but upside makes him rosterable |
| Dominique Easley | <> | DL94 | As disruptive as Donald, similar upside as part of strong DL; injury concern |
| Michael Brockers | <> | DL56 | Disappointing, but talent and surrounding cast earn him one more look |
| Ra'Shede Hageman | <> | Now classified at DE, no 2014 value |
Follow and ask questions on Twitter @JeneBramel. Reading the Defense will be a regular feature this offseason with free agent commentary, draft prospect previews, tier discussion, links to our offseason IDP roundtable podcasts and much more. Subscribe to The Audible on iTunes or download our IDP podcast here.
