WHY TIERS?
Rank lists and cheatsheets can be deceiving when they're presented without commentary. Our rankings have been vastly improved by adding staffer comments, but it's hard to see context in the consensus rankings and sheets. It's important to know where a significant drop-off in fantasy value occurs. A simple rank list can't tell you if the DL4 is closer in value to the DL10 than the DL3. A cheatsheet can't tell you if the ranker feels the LB10 is a boom-bust play with LB2 upside and LB40 downside while the LB11 has a much narrower range of expectation.
That's where tiers are helpful.
Using tiers -- with or without commentary -- allows you to lump and split players in context. Using tiers can help keep you on the right side of draft runs. Seeing that you have five linebackers on your board might prompt you to take a player at another position. Noting that there's only one wide receiver left before a major drop in value will show you when you must draft a position sooner than expected. A tiered draft board keeps you from making panicked decisions while on the clock.
These tiers are based on 2014 expectation only and I'm basing positional classifications on the MFL database (which syncs to the Rotoworld depth charts later in the offseason). I will include a separate dynasty stash tier and draft prospects list at the end of each positional article.
(The date on this article represents the last time the tiers were updated.)
elite DL1
This tier includes a group of defensive ends that are high ceiling, high floor options in any league setup. There may be players in the next tier you're comfortable elevating, but you'll have trouble convincing yourself that a player from this group isn't a clear DL1.
| J.J. Watt | Consecutive seasons of 65+ solos, near lock to "regress" toward mid double-digit sacks |
| Robert Quinn | Outscored Watt in balanced scoring systems in 2013, breakout season no fluke |
| Chandler Jones | Elite fantasy talent still has room to improve as pass rusher, home stat crew inflates assist count |
| Greg Hardy | Release the Kraken!! Three straight seasons near 40 solos, elite pass rusher |
elite dl1 upside
This is the beauty of the tier approach. I have the higher floor players listed nearer the top here, but there's not much difference between the top of this group and the bottom.
| Cameron Wake | Sack numbers didn't show it, but still close to dominant last year before MCL sprain slowed him |
| Rob Ninkovich | Quietly a near lock for 40-45 solos and 7+ sacks, NE stat crew helped with 49 assists last year |
| DeMarcus Ware | Will see more pass rush chances in Denver, will move up if OTAs show neck/elbow are healthy |
| Calais Campbell | New coordinator didn't affect production last year, safe bet for 45-8 floor with 50-10 upside |
| LaMarr Houston | Move to Chicago won't hurt tackle numbers much, pass rush opportunity should increase |
| Jason Pierre-Paul | Slotting him here is a hedge. If healthy, he's elite. If not, look out below. |
| Mario Williams | Should be classified as DE this year, good fit for Jim Schwartz's scheme |
| Carlos Dunlap | Frustratingly inconsistent without huge weeks that single-handedly win fantasy matchups, concussion risk |
| Ezekiel Ansah | Injuries limited development last year so still inexperienced, but could make Quinn / Jones type leap this year |
| Michael Johnson | Tough to slot, may no longer be motivated by promise of big contract, how much Zimmer helped unknown |
DL2 w/ DL1 upside
In a simple rank list, the players in this group would be mixed with those in the High Variance DL2 and High Floor DL2 tiers. There isn't much difference between Charles Johnson (in this tier) and Carlos Dunlap (in the tier above). And that's just one example. In general, I think the players in the tier above have a higher ceiling than those here. It's arguable that those higher ceiling players also have a lower floor than the top players in this tier. When you make your final tier lists, do so with your own draft philosophy in mind. If you'd rather have the higher percentage player, move those players you don't trust down into a more appropriate tier.
| Cameron Jordan | Dominant 5-technique pass rusher, solo tackles fell off after ankle injury last year |
| Olivier Vernon | Hard not to slot him here (or higher) after last season's 46-11.5 effort, but buyer beware |
| Muhammad Wilkerson | Arguably should slot nearer Campbell as all-around 3-4 monster, especially in tackle heavy scoring |
| Charles Johnson | Still a stud pass rusher, three years of Freeney-esque poor solos and durability are concerns |
| Everson Griffen | Per snap rate stats suggest possible breakout, Zimmer scheme elevates DE value, upside pick |
| Jared Allen | Once uber-elite solo tackle numbers are long gone, but pass rush rate stats still strong in recent years |
| Justin Tuck | Frustrated fantasy owners for years, but mini-renaissance last year renews hope |
| Adrian Clayborn | Another year removed from ACL injury, strong scheme and surrounding cast, may be too low here |
High variance DL2
In a simple rank list, the players in this group would be mixed with those in the DL2 with DL1 Upside and High Floor DL2 tiers. This group is scoring system sensitive. They'd rank higher in this large tier in sack-heavy scoring leagues, lower in tackle-heavy systems. Willie Young and Wallace Gilberry are particularly attractive and will move up if OTA reports suggest they will get a heavy rotational role and can be projected to see 700-800 snaps.
| Willie Young | Would have ranked higher had Bears not added Jared Allen, snap count may not support consistent stats |
| Osi Umenyiora** | Falcons likely moving toward 3-4 base, Osi would be reclassified to OLB |
| Wallace Gilberry | Produced in larger role last year, but snap count dependent on development of Margus Hunt |
| Julius Peppers** | Could be reclassified to OLB in GB scheme, would rank in second tier of rush backers |
| Cliff Avril | Great scheme, will see more snaps this year, tackle numbers too low and inconsistent to trust |
| Chris Long | Could put up 3-4 sacks in any given week, but long stetches of fantasy purgatory with him |
| Brian Robison | Will put up good numbers but not talented enough to produce elite all-around stats |
| Chris Clemons | Arguably best pass rusher in Jacksonville, snap count and health not assured |
| LaMarr Woodley | Very low floor but if hamstrings are healthy snap his count will be hard to ignore |
high floor dl2
In a simple rank list, the players in this group would be mixed with those in the DL2 with DL1 Upside and High Variance DL2 tiers. This tier is light right now. I like the ceiling of Wilkerson, Griffen, Tuck and Clayborn too much to drop them into this group. And I don't like the floor of the large group of ends in the tier that follows.
| Sheldon Richardson | Won't generate the pass rush stats needed for elite tier status, but strong target if you like high floor depth |
| Michael Bennett | Has more pass rush potential than Richardson, but not consistent enough to slot in a more elite tier |
dl3 w/ matchup value
This group looks weaker than recent years. But we're now over 30 players deep in the tier list -- even if Umenyiora and Peppers are reclassified to outside linebacker as I expect. If you're drafting today, especially in dynasty leagues, ignore this group in favor of the tier jumper and dynasty watch lists to follow.
| George Selvie | Good scheme fit, could see 800 snaps if depth chart holds, not an elite talent, some durability risk |
| Jurrell Casey | Likely to play DE in Horton's scheme, talented enough to be lesser version of Calais Campbell |
| Fletcher Cox | Still waiting for breakout but tools and snap count are there |
| Justin Smith | Doesn't put up elite combination of tackles / sacks any more, SF depth chart better, more rotation likely |
| Arthur Jones | Better football player than stat compiler, not likely to be every-week fantasy option |
| Cameron Heyward | Still developing, finally flashed all-around skill last year, 2014 is contract year for him |
| Jason Hatcher | Could put up numbers as 5-technique, but this is his likely ceiling |
| Haloti Ngata | Rotoworld has him classifed at DE currently, durability questions hard to ignore |
| Jeremy Mincey | Opportunity for high snap count in Dallas only reason he slots here, low ceiling / low floor depth |
| Mathias Kiwanuka | Talented and still underrated, drops out of this tier if Damontre Moore ready to play in base front |
Tier Jumpers | Redraft Watch List
These players will move into a tier based on their performance in OTAs, minicamps and early training camp. If you've got roster space, consider this your pre-camp news sleeper list.
| Anthony Spencer | Career may be over after microfracture surgery last summer, nice upside if heatlhy and Dallas re-signs |
| Dion Jordan | Under-utilized last year, rumored on trade block this winter, still an elite all-around talent |
| Devin Taylor | Could see 700 snaps with Willie Young gone, offensive lines must focus on teammates |
| Damontre Moore | Still needs development, if proves ready this offseason for 700+ snaps will have DL2 upside |
| Margus Hunt | Expect larger rotational role this year, but 500 snaps may be max unless Dunlap / Gilberry injured |
| Derek Wolfe | Whomever gets majority of snaps opposite DeMarcus Ware will be solid fantasy depth with matchup upside |
| Jerry Hughes | Early favorite to start at DE opposite Mario Williams, quiet 9.5 sacks last year |
| Jared Crick | Reach, but still like the talent here and there's an open competition opposite JJ Watt |
dynasty stash
This list is short for now. Shallow dynasty owners will have some of the above tier available to them. Deep dynasty owners should be looking at any rookie from 2013 still on a roster (e.g. Cornelius Washington, Malliciah Goodman). I'll extend this list after I further evaluate the depth of talent in this year's draft class.
| Quanterus Smith | Now two years removed from ACL surgery, good depth chart opportunity in Denver |
| Tank Carradine | Up to 290 pounds, transitioning to 3-4 end, health and edge rush ability at higher weight major questions |
| Datone Jones | Showed enough skill at UCLA to handle 3-4 end role and produce, not yet convinced of a DL2 ceiling |
DT Targets
The top three names on this list -- Geno Atkins, Gerald McCoy and Ndamukong Suh would slot in the High Variance DL2 tier. The rest of the list is part of the matchup cloud in combined DE/DT leagues. Dynasty leaguers shouldn't hold a roster spot for anyone not on this list if there are waiver wire options of value at other positions.
Note: This list should include Kyle Williams. Slot him between Suh and Melton.
| Geno Atkins | Concern relatively low, must prove he's still explosive after ACL injury, loss of Michael Johnson may hurt |
| Gerald McCoy | Even better scheme value this year, prime of career, overall DT1 finish possible |
| Ndamukong Suh | Didn't finish in pocket often enough last year, improvement from Ansah could boost his numbers |
| Henry Melton | Great fit with Marinelli and Tampa-2 undertackle role, injury concern |
| Nick Fairley | Will become top tier fantasy DT if his tackle numbers improve, lots of competition |
| Marcell Dareus | If tackle counts remain high in Pettine's system, should remain strong DT1 |
| Dontari Poe | Sacks fell off cliff after Week 5 but pressure per snap and tackle counts did not |
| Star Lotulelei | Would be higher if pass rush was better, but breakout potential here |
| Jay Ratliff | Good scheme fit in Chicago, boom-bust pick |
| Linval Joseph | Zimmer gets a lot from his tackles, has 40-6+ upside |
| Sylvester Williams | Improved as year progressed, may not be elite performer but upside makes him rosterable |
| Sharrif Floyd | New scheme, Zimmer positive for his development, could be dominant if he's ready |
| Michael Brockers | Disappointing, but talent and surrounding cast keep him on my radar |
high Value Draft Prospects
I'll fill in this tier once I've finished evaluating prospects.
Follow and ask questions on Twitter @JeneBramel. Reading the Defense will be a regular feature this offseason with free agent commentary, draft prospect previews, tier discussion, links to our offseason IDP roundtable podcasts and much more. Subscribe to The Audible on iTunes or download our IDP podcast here.