NFFC Post Season Hold 'Em Strategy and Roster Construction
by Dave Kluge
Exclusive to Footballguys.com
The regular season ended on Sunday night, meaning most people have checked out of fantasy football until 2025. But there are still great ways to put your knowledge to the test and win money. Our friends at NFFC are organizing an excellent and thought-provoking contest with over $260k in guaranteed prizes. There's no draft and no salary restrictions. Just pick the players you think will score the most points every week. It's that simple! Well, not really. There's a bit more than goes into it. But this article will help you prepare.
NFFC Post Season Hold 'Em Rules
If you're unfamiliar with NFFC's Postseason Hold ‘Em Contest, here is a great crash course to teach you the ins and outs of scoring, roster restrictions, round-by-round changes, and more.
To sum up this contest as efficiently as possible: You fill out a roster, selecting players you prefer at each position. Each week a player remains on your team, you get a higher multiplier for that player's weekly score.
- The first week a player is on your roster: 1x his points for that week
- The second week a player is on your roster: 2x his points for that week
- The third week a player is on your roster: 3x his points for that week
- The fourth week a player is on your roster: 4x his points for that week
Assuming I explained that correctly, your wheels should already be spinning. Because the lack of stringent rules makes for endless lineup configurations.
Again, all of the necessary rules are in this article, but an important caveat to this contest is the maximum number of players you can roster from the same team in any given round.
- In Round 1 (Wild Card Round), you are only allowed one player to team
- In Round 2 (Divisional Round), you are only allowed two players per team
- In Round 3 (Conference Round), you are only allowed three players per team
The Super Bowl has some rules of its own. You must select precisely four players from each team, fielding a roster of eight players, all position-less flex options.
NFFC Post Season Hold 'Em Thoughts and Strategy
As this is my first year playing the contest, I wanted to walk you through my thought process behind it, hopefully helping spark unique ideas for your roster entries.
Identifying Super Bowl Teams to Get 4x Players
The first thing I do in almost any playoff contest is map out my expected playoff bracket. While I project for some early-round upsets, my expected Conference matchups have Baltimore beating Kansas City and Detroit beating Philadelphia, with Baltimore and Detroit ultimately meeting in the Super Bowl. Naturally, I want who I expect to be the two highest scorers on my expected Super Bowl team immediately: Lamar Jackson and Jahmyr Gibbs . That sets them both up for a potential 4x multiplier in the Super Bowl, which is what I'd assume you would need to take down a tournament like this. Gibbs, of course, will provide a zero in Round 1, as the Lions received a first-round bye. But the Rounds 2-4 multipliers should offset that, and I'll be looking to add future Lions in future weeks.
Collecting 3x Players in Conference Championships
The next order of business is adding other players who I expect to contribute as 3x multipliers in the Conference Round. Xavier Worthy has been heating up at the right time. His involvement over the final three games of the regular season jumped dramatically, as he provided 10.3 targets and 2.7 rushing attempts per game, scoring in three straight outings. His late-season rookie boom is oddly reminiscent of Rashee Rice last year, and that's a bet I'm willing to make again. If Worthy can keep rolling through the playoffs, averaging 19.3 fantasy points per game, that 3x multiplier could be very beneficial. Like Gibbs, I'm admittedly taking a zero in Round 1. But the Chiefs are a team I don't want to fade in the playoffs.
The other player I absolutely want in my Round 1 lineup and expect to be around in the Conference Round is Saquon Barkley . With Jalen Hurts having missed some time due to a concussion and still in protocol as of Monday, the team should lean heavily on a well-rested Barkley , as they have all season. Barkley should not only be a smash play in Round 1 but any time the Eagles take the field in the playoffs. With my bracket projecting the Eagles in the NFC Conference Championship, a 3x multiplier on Barkley would be a fantastic way to amass many points through the first few rounds.
Now, I have one player from each team I expect to be in the Conference Championship Games: Xavier Worthy , Lamar Jackson , Jahmyr Gibbs , and Saquon Barkley .
Targeting Wild Card Winners
Continuing to work backward through my bracket, I am now targeting players I expect to win in Round 1, giving me extra multipliers in Round 2. Josh Allen has been right alongside Lamar Jackson in this year's MVP race, but also as a close QB2 to Jackson's fantasy scoring abilities. He's an easy addition as another quarterback. However, selecting two AFC quarterbacks does potentially limit my upside. There is no chance of me having two quarterbacks with 4x multipliers. But as I work backward through my bracket, I'm focused on building a team with the highest potential range of outcomes, so I willingly ignore the potential downside. Additionally, with Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen likely meeting up in Round 2, I can add a player from both the Ravens and Bills to my roster, hedging against my prediction of the Ravens in the Super Bowl. If The Bills win, I can easily pivot to a new Bills-heavy approach.
Staying with my expected Round 1 winners, no team has given up more fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this year than the Vikings. And Puka Nacua has been red hot since returning from injury. Since he's been a full-time player in Week 10, only Ja'Marr Chase has outscored him in fantasy points per game. With the Rams projected to upset the Vikings in Round 1 by me, I set myself up for a unique multiplier on Nacua in Round 2, where other managers may have opted for other players than those on a projected one-and-done team.
Like Worthy and Nacua, Ladd McConkey is getting hot at the right time. And with me projecting a Chargers win over Houston, I'll opt to add McConkey to my roster. This is where some of the game theory comes into play. In a vacuum, I expect Mike Evans to outscore him. But because I expect the Chargers to win and the Buccaneers to lose, the value of a potential 2x multiplier makes McConkey the more desirable target.
That leaves one final Round 1 winner I need to get to my lineup: the Washington Commanders. Most entries save their kickers and defenses for teams they expect to exit in Round 1. But what if I add Washington's kicker here instead? If they make it to Round 2, I'll have a rare multiplier on a kicker. Both Terry McLaurin and Brian Robinson Jr . have been inconsistent, and targeting a kicker is a high-scoring matchup could provide a unique edge. Most people aren't targeting kickers aggressively, but this gives me a fun opportunity to accrue extra points there, and I can hopefully find a one-week replacement for Round 3 after a 2x multiplier.
Here are the teams I project to make it to the Divisional Round and the players I have added to my lineup from each team so far. We have eight of twelve spots filled.
- Kansas City Chiefs - Xavier Worthy
- Buffalo Bills - Josh Allen
- Baltimore Ravens - Lamar Jackson
- Los Angeles Chargers - Ladd McConkey
- Detroit Lions - Jahmyr Gibbs
- Philadelphia Eagles - Saquon Barkley
- Los Angeles Rams - Puka Nacua
- Washington Commanders - Team Kicker
