Fantasy Notebook: Can Tyreek Hill Turn It Around?
By Bib Harris - Exclusive to Footballguys
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Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.
Let's dive in . . .
The Hunt For Value Never Ends
As I explained in last week's Fantasy Notebook, a key aspect of "the offseason" in fantasy football is identifying players who fell short of our draft-day expectations and then putting some time in to assess their chances of rebounding in 2025. The same holds true for those who delivered above and beyond the draft capital invested.
The goal for both groups is the same: Assessing their chances of exceeding or falling short of expectations this year as part of our search for value.
That last word is key.
Finding value in drafts is your path to fantasy success. And this is a great time to start that process.
But make no mistake. This is just the first step in what will be an off-season-long effort.
I'll be here to help you set the baseline with prime examples and initial assessments of outlooks heading into 2025. In case you missed it, I started last week with Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry (you can read them here). We'll do it again this week, starting with . . .
Still King Of The Hill?
The Miami Dolphins have not won a playoff game since 2000 and came no closer to breaking that drought this season.
As ESPN.com's Marcel Louis-Jacques reminded readers last week, the Dolphins worked hard to add talent to their roster heading into 2024. Still, they opened the season with a 2-6 record before finishing 8-9. After falling just short of the playoffs, the team has some critical decisions this offseason, starting with wide receiver Tyreek Hill.
The veteran wideout made it clear last offseason that as the receiver market continues to skyrocket, he expects to be paid accordingly based on his performance.
No player had more receiving yards in 2022 and 2023 than Hill's 3,509. He didn't necessarily need to be the league's highest-paid wide receiver, but he had fallen out of the top five at the position. The Dolphins rectified that by adding more fully guaranteed money onto his existing extension than any other receiver in NFL history.
But 2024 was not kind to Hill.
After leading the league with 1,799 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns while hauling in 119 catches to tie his career high a season prior, Hill managed 81 catches for 959 yards, snapping a three-year streak of amassing 100-plus catches and four-year run of totaling 1,000-plus yards.
His six touchdowns tied a career low, and his 11.8 yards per reception was lower than only 2021 and his contribution as a rookie.
It was Hill's worst season in a Dolphins uniform.
It wasn't great for Miami. It was arguably worse for fantasy investors who selected Hill early in the first round of their 2024 drafts.
Drafted to be a prime-time player, Hill instead was a frustration, finishing as WR18 with 12.2 points per game while being held to single-digit scoring seven times . . .
What Happened Here?
Health was an issue. Hill dealt with a wrist injury that necessitated consideration of surgery, something he passed on, and he never looked fully in sync on anything other than underneath routes with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who missed Weeks 3-7 with a concussion and the team's final two games due to a hip injury.
But also, Hill took regular rest days this year.
After their Week 16 loss to the 49ers, Hill suggested those veteran rest days might have been an issue. "I need those valuable reps with Tua," Tyreek said. "Those vet rest days are starting to show."
If it seems like a reach to believe extra days off were a problem for a player with his experience, Hill disagrees.
"You just can't show up on Sunday," Hill said. "You gotta be able to prepare yourself."
But there was more here . . .
CONTINUED...