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Welcome In. We're almost to the big games and we can't wait. In the meantime, we've got lots of sweet content for you with Game Predictions, Prop Talk, Underdog Pick 'Ems, Matchups plus our Footballguys Staff breaks down some of the lessons learned this year.
And Sigmund Bloom has the News and Notes you need.
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J
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Game Predictor: Conference Championships - Clayton Gray and the Footballguys Staff predict the scores of this week's NFL games using Footballguys projections and Las Vegas lines.
Conference Championship Matchups: The Best And Worst - Our Devin Knotts and Justin Howe detail the Conference Championship Matchups they love and hate.
2024 Lessons Learned: Your Overall 2025 Draft Strategy
By Rachel Tootsiepop - Exclusive to Footballguys
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In this week's roundtable series, I asked our Footballguys staff to discuss their fantasy New Year's resolutions for the quarterback, tight end, running back, and wide receiver positions.
In today's article, we share our final thoughts on the lessons learned from 2024 and overall takeaways for approaching drafting in 2025.
Jason Wood: The "Christian McCaffrey Fiasco" is a black eye on the entire fantasy football industry this year. He was the consensus first-overall pick for nearly everyone in the fantasy community, yet we completely ignored that he was injured for the entire preseason. Sure, part of our indifference was driven by the NFL media consistently downplaying the injury, but ultimately, it's on us to look beyond media reports and know when to pivot.
The data shows that drafting McCaffrey this year created a massive headwind for making your league's playoffs—something that could have been avoided if we had collectively discounted him by a round or two due to the injury concerns. My resolution is to properly discount any player who doesn't practice or play at all during the preseason. While this scenario doesn't happen often, we should never keep a player in the top half of the first round when it does.
Colton Dodgson: Fantasy can't be more of a minefield. Even if you avoided the Christian McCaffrey trap, there were any number of ways to fumble your season. Sometimes, you also have the pressure of rankings or outward opinions running counter to your own instincts. My wife caught a ton of flack when she drafted CeeDee Lamb over Christian McCaffrey at 1.01 in our home redraft league. Still, she went with what she believed to be the right choice. In this case, it worked out. Lamb might not have returned 1.01 value, but he didn't derail her season like McCaffrey would have.
That decision stuck with me. I didn't necessarily think it was what I would've done. All of the brilliant minds compiling pre-draft rankings had McCaffrey as the top overall option. It made perfect sense, too. Given the run he'd been on in San Francisco, how could you not take McCaffrey? I probably would have. Still, she stuck to her guns and went with who she believed in. Her season ended in the quarterfinals. It would've ended a lot sooner had she gone with the consensus choice in McCaffrey. That's my takeaway. Use the resources available – the rankings, start/sit articles, waiver wire advice – as supplements. At the end of the day, the team is yours, and it's only yours if you rely on your instincts to make the calls. As long as you take the time to understand your approach and stick to it through thick and thin, I think you can live with the results. Even the biggest names in this industry have missed the playoffs.
Rookies with Preseason Injuries
Dave Kluge: Rookies who cannot partake in training camp and preseason games will be radioactive to me going forward. Jaxon Smith-Njigba missed almost all of his rookie season camp with a wrist injury and never got up to speed as a rookie. In Year 2, however, with an entire camp under his belt, Smith-Njigba blossomed into one of the league's most dynamic receivers. From this year's rookie class, Jonathon Brooks and Roman Wilson dealt with preseason injuries and contributed almost nothing. After breaking his foot injury during his rookie camp, Kyren Williams hardly saw the field before massive breakouts in Years 2 and 3. Jameson Williams is another example of a player who needed to get a full and healthy preseason under his belt before finally breaking out. As Mike Tomlin said regarding Wilson's lack of involvement this year, “It is very difficult to get on a moving train.” I will heed that advice in the future. Jeff Blaylock: I agree with Jason's assessment that fantasy analysts, including myself, overly discounted the impacts of offseason and preseason injuries. I mostly avoided the “Christian McCaffrey Fiasco,” as he called it, but only because I did not have a top-three pick in any of my redraft leagues. I also agree with Dave's assessment that rookies who miss training camp are now completely off the redraft radar. I'll only use dynasty picks for players like Jonathon Brooks or J.J. McCarthy if I can afford to let them sit a year or two without contributing.
Former Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll was hired by the Las Vegas Raiders as head coach Friday, Jan. 24. He received a three-year deal with a fourth-year option.
Our view: The Raiders were considered front runners to hire Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson a week ago, but Johnson chose the Bears, so the Raiders are going with a familiar face. The team should have a strong defensive identity under Carroll, and this could also quiet talk of trading Maxx Crosby. There is some talk that Russell Wilson may be the quarterback, as he and Carroll have mended their relationship after it ended badly in Seattle. Carroll will go back to facing Jim Harbaugh at least twice a season after the two had one of the NFL's best rivalries when they were with the Seahawks and 49ers.
Buffalo Bills S Taylor Rapp (back, hip) did not participate in practice Friday, Jan. 24, and has been ruled out of the AFC Championship game. CB Christian Benford (concussion, personal) did not practice and is listed as questionable. LB Baylon Spector (calf) fully participated in practice but is listed as questionable. OT Dion Dawkins (illness), S Damar Hamlin (rib), CB Taron Johnson (neck, shoulder), TE Dalton Kincaid (knee), CB Cam Lewis (shoulder), C Connor J. McGovern (shoulder), LB Matt Milano (biceps, hamstring), DE Gregory Rousseau (finger) and LB Dorian Williams (elbow) fully participated in practice and are not on the injury report.
Our view: Benford has been the #1 corner for the Bills, and Rapp has experienced a bit of a resurgence in the secondary, so these are not insignificant injury worries for a Bills team that came into the playoffs mostly healthy.
Updating previous reports, Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive coordinator Liam Coen agreed in principle to become the new head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday, Jan. 23.
Our view: Well now we know what firing Trent Baalke was all about. We can criticize Jaguars owner Shad Khan for initially keeping Baalke, which probably didn't help the head coach search, but when he had a good candidate and learned what he needed to do to finish the job, Khan followed through. The Bucs and Baker Mayfield will have a new offensive coordinator for the third straight year, but Mayfield showed that he isn't just a product of the scheme in 2024. The 49ers are expected to bring back Robert Saleh as defensive coordinator after the Jaguars did not hire him as their next head coach.
Impending free-agent QB Russell Wilson (Steelers) might be of interest as a stop-gap quarterback for the Las Vegas Raiders, according to a source. Per the source, Wilson and new head coach Pete Carroll have 'mended fences' from their time together with the Seattle Seahawks.
Our view: After seeing how things went for the Steelers passing game this season, it's hard to say this would be good for Brock Bowers, but it could be worse than catching passes from Russell Wilson. The new general manager John Spytek will also need to decide whether to trade up for a quarterback, either Miami's Cam Ward or Colorado's Shedeur Sanders.
Philadelphia Eagles TE Dallas Goedert (ankle) told reporters he plans on playing in the NFC Championship game against the Washington Commanders on Friday, Jan. 24.
Our view: Goedert had the signature touchdown of the wild card win over the Packers and he posted a 5-61 line in the one game he played against Washington during the regular season. His presence should help a passing game that hasn't been a big factor in the Eagles playoff run so far.
Houston Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik was fired on Friday, Jan. 24.
Our view: Slowik was also a candidate for the Jets head coach job before Aaron Glenn took it, and he was a candidate for head coach jobs in Washington and Atlanta last year, so this is a bit of a surprise even though CJ Stroud regressed this season. The Texans also fired offensive line coach Chris Strausser. The offensive line was the critical point of failure for the offense this year. We'll be watching closely to see who the Texans bring in to aid Stroud's development.
New York Giants defensive assistant Zak Kuhr has agreed to join the New England Patriots coaching staff in an undisclosed role, according to a source.
Our view: Kuhr was on Mike Vrabel's staff in Tennessee as an assistant linebackers coach and the two were on the Ohio State staff together in 2011 and 2012. It's not clear yet what his job will be for the Patriots.
Dallas Cowboys CB Trevon Diggs (knee) underwent knee surgery Thursday, Jan. 23, and may not be ready for the start of training camp, according to sources.
Our view: The Cowboys defense rallied to have a strong finish once Micah Parsons returned from injury, but they missed their #1 corner. It's not clear who will coach the defense and how Diggs will fit in the new scheme, and he will have to learn on the fly without the benefit of a full offseason install and maybe without a full-go designation at the beginning of camp.
Cincinnati Bengals OT Orlando Brown (leg) does not need to undergo surgery on his injured leg and said that his leg is feeling much better.
Our view: This is good news, assuming Brown's leg issue does not flare up next season because it wasn't surgically repaired. The Bengals offensive line was more something for Joe Burrow to overcome than a reason he had another excellent season.
Former New York Jets linebackers coach Mike Rutenberg was hired as the new defensive pass game coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons on Friday, Jan. 24. The Falcons also named former Houston Texans assistant defensive line coach Nate Ollie as the team's new defensive line coach.
Our view: Rutenberg was with new Falcons defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich for four years with the Jets. He'll fill a position that was vacant for the Falcons last season and help Ulbrich with pass defense game plans. Ollie has overseen some very disruptive defensive line groups and should help get the most out of a group that was a big disappointment for most of the season in 2024.
Cleveland Browns offensive quality control coach Ashton Grant was named as the new quarterbacks coach for the New England Patriots on Thursday, Jan. 23.
Our view: The 28-year-old was also up for the Packers quarterbacks coach job. This means that Josh McDaniels will not have two hats as the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, as he has in the past for the Patriots. The support staff for Drake Maye from 2024 is probably going to completely change, with Grant playing a key role. Head coach Mike Vrabel worked with Grant when they were both with the Browns last season.
Los Angeles Rams tight ends coach and passing game coordinator Nick Caley is reportedly the leading candidate to be named as the new offensive coordinator for the New York Jets, according to multiple sources.
Our view: Picking someone who has been able to learn from Sean McVay isn't a bad strategy when you're hiring an offensive coordinator. Caley also worked under Josh McDaniels with the Patriots and got one ring as an offensive assistant.
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We Help You Win More At Fantasy Football
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