Each week I will take a look at every NFL game in an attempt to identify players that can be stacked together to maximize value in GPP play at FanDuel. I will examine the spreads and totals for each game as well as the implied totals for each team, and blend that with the likeliest script that these games will follow. In doing so, I'm attempting to find players that can pay dividends for your lineup but I will also provide a pivot within the stack to another player and give reasons as to why a pivot might make sense. You can use this information as a guide and you will have multiple options which will help you to sort through the noise while you put lineups together that can offer a degree of security.
RISK-AVERSE STACKS
Matt Ryan ($8,500) + Julio Jones ($9,200) = $17,700
The Falcons host the Packers on Sunday in Week 8 in a game that Vegas has as the highest scoring game of the weekend with a total of 52.5 points. The Falcons implied number is 27.5 and they are favored by three points at home against a middle of the pack pass defense. While the Packers look like an average defense on paper, a closer look might yield a different conclusion.
Looking at the Green Bay schedule and who they’ve played gives a clue as to why they’re in the middle of the pack. Outside the Detroit Lions, the Packers haven’t played against a passing offense as capable as Atlanta, and this is a matchup that the Falcons can exploit.
The Packers are allowing the seventh-most yards per attempt (7.9) to opposing quarterbacks. They are also seventh-worst in the NFL allowing a touchdown on 8.3 percent of opponent’s completions, and I’d expect a heavy dose of passing for the Falcons in this game.
The Packers are the league’s No. 1 ranked rush defense and if the Falcons are going to get to their implied number, it will be on the back of the passing attack. Receiver Julio Jones is a one-man wrecking crew and the Packers are ill-equipped to handle his size, speed and physicality down the field.
Jones continues to see a significant share of the passing game volume and that will continue this week. The Ryan/Jones stack is expensive but one that is as stable as you’ll find, and there’s value at the running back position in Week 8 so rostering them will be easier than it normally would be.
Jameis Winston ($7,400) + Mike Evans ($7,900) = $15,300
The Buccaneers take on the Oakland Raiders at home in a Week 8 contest featuring a pair of potent offenses in what Vegas is calling a high scoring, very close game. Vegas has the total at 49.5 points and the Buccaneers are favored by 1.5 points on Sunday.
The Raiders are the league’s worst passing defense. They have surrendered the third-worst yards per attempt in the league and only six defenses have given up more passing touchdowns than the Raiders. Also, the Raiders are worst in the NFL in allowing passing plays over 20 yards as they’ve given up 32 to date.
The Buccaneers have an implied total of 24.5 points and the Raiders’ number is 24, so multiple scores are projected. This is going to be a close game that should feature some big plays and from a game script perspective, the Buccaneers offense should be able to hit the Raiders for a few of these big plays down the field, and that’s where Evans comes into the equation.
Another factor is that the Raiders can’t pressure the passer as they’ve only garnered nine sacks on the season. Only Kansas City and Pittsburgh have generated fewer sacks than the Raiders. The Raiders aren’t going to pressure and make Winston uncomfortable, and that will allow him to stand in the pocket and drive the ball down the field to Evans.
Evans is a target hog in the Buccaneers offense as he’s been targeted 68 times and scored five touchdowns over the past five games. Because of his volume and the Raiders propensity to give up big plays down the field, he should be able to make some big plays on Sunday.
Andrew Luck ($7,900) + T.Y. Hilton ($7,800) = $15,700
The Colts bring the Chiefs into Lucas Oil Stadium in Week 8 in a matchup that Vegas likes as the second highest scoring game of the week. Vegas has the total at 50.5 points and while the Chiefs have an implied total of 27 points, the Colts implied total is 23.5 points.
The Colts are a home underdog as the line is set at 2.5 points, and they’ll have to score points to keep pace with the Chiefs this week. Colts quarterback Andrew Luck is playing very well and he’ll face off against the league’s No. 19 ranked passing defense. While the Chiefs are an average pass defense, they struggle to generate pressure on the quarterback and have a league-worst eight sacks on the season.
If Luck is given time in the pocket and the ability to set his feet and throw down the field, he’ll hit on a few deep throws and that’s going to be where Hilton wins. Hilton is consistently going to separate vertically and his target share is incredibly high in the Colts pass happy offense. He’s been targeted 76 times through seven games, but never more than 12 in a week and not less than nine.
Some will point to Chiefs cornerback Marcus Peters as a reason to stay away from Hilton, but the Colts move Hilton around on the outside and into the slot enough that he’s matchup-proof in some ways.
Because of the matchup and the pass-happy nature of both teams, I see this as a week where a Luck/Hilton stack is a safe, smart play.
Aaron Rodgers ($8,800) + Randall Cobb ($6,800) = $15,600
The Green Bay Packers travel to Atlanta in Week 8 and this game has the makings of a shootout. The Falcons can’t stop the pass on defense and have the kind of offense that can put up points in a hurry. The Packers passing game will bear the burden here as the Packers are missing key pieces in their rushing attack.
Vegas likes this game as the week’s highest scoring game with a total of 52.5 points. The Packers have an implied number of 24.5 and the Falcons have an implied number of 27.5 points. What’s clear is that points are expected in this game and from a game script perspective; it’s easy to see where each team can hurt their opponent.
The Falcons are the league’s No. 31 pass defense, allowing the third-most passing touchdowns and the fourth-most plays of 20+ yards down the field. The most important stat for the Packers offense is how many receptions the Falcons have surrendered to date. The Falcons have allowed a league-worst 199 receptions and that means good things for the Packers as Rodgers likes to spread the ball around to his weapons.
Receiver Randall Cobb has come out of the Week 5 bye on a torrid pace and he’s seeing a giant workload as he’s been targeted 37 times in the past three games, catching 27 passes and generating 256 yards and two scores over that span.
This week he’ll line up out of the slot and avoid Falcons cornerbacks Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford. This is a matchup he should exploit as the Falcons surrender catches at a ridiculous rate. The Packers like to play with tempo and they’ll use Cobb to move the chains in this game, and he’ll continue to see large volume in this game.
HIGHER RISK STACKS
Brock Osweiler ($6,600) + DeAndre Hopkins (7,600) = $14,200
The Texans bring the Lions to town Sunday and they are favored by 2.5 points here, and Vegas has the total at 45.5 points. The Texans have an implied total of 24 points and the good news is that they’ll get one of their easier tests from a passing game outlook all year in Week 8.
The Lions are brutal against the pass and might be missing top cornerback Darius Slay to a hamstring injury suffered in Week 7. Simply put, the Lions don’t have the personnel to limit the Texans passing game without Slay and it could get ugly for the Lions in Week 8.
The Lions are No. 23 versus the pass but they’ve given up 18 scores through the air to date which puts them dead last in the NFL. Opposing quarterbacks have put up a passer rating of 117.3 on the Lions which is absurd, considering only six teams have surrendered a passer rating of over 100. From a passer rating peek, the Lions are miles ahead of everyone else if giving up a high passer rating was a good thing.
Osweiler has struggled, that much is sure, but he’ll get healthy this week against a very bad pass defense. DeAndre Hopkins' production has suffered because of Osweiler’s struggles at the quarterback position, but there’s a lot of value in his price this week. It’s almost inconceivable that the Lions can stop him without Slay, and as of this writing Slay is not expected to play.
Osweiler is forcing the ball to Hopkins even in the face of brutal matchups against the likes of the Hopkins gets a target load like he’s seen the past few weeks, he’s going off in this game.
Pivot: If you’re looking for a triple-stack option, or just want to get a piece of the action at a reduced rate, look at rookie receiver Will Fuller ($6,600) as another player with an outstanding matchup. Again, the Lions don’t have the personnel in their secondary here. Fuller is more dependent on the deep ball which makes him more dependent on Osweiler which makes him riskier than Hopkins, but there is a huge ceiling here. Another option is going with tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz ($4,900) as the Lions can’t cover tight ends and have been gashed by the position all year. Fiedorowicz has been coming on in this offense and this matchup is glorious.
Kirk Cousins ($7,200) + Jordan Reed ($6,800) = $14,000
The Bengals and Redskins play the early Sunday game in London and the Bengals are a three-point favorite. Vegas has the total at 47 points and they’ve got Washington with an implied total of 21.5 points and the Bengals with an implied number of 24.5 points.
The Bengals are the league’s No. 12 passing defense, but they’ve given up the fifth-most passing touchdowns to date with 14 and they’ve allowed 22 passing plays of 20 or more yards which is 10th worst in the NFL. This defense is susceptible to good passing attacks. They’ve given up big numbers to Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian and Patriots quarterback Tom Brady this year.
Cousins comes into this game playing very well and he may get some help with the return of tight end Jordan Reed. Reed is a very big mismatch for opposing defenses as he is a skilled route runner capable of creating separation quickly in his routes. He is too big for cornerbacks to lock him up and too quick/fast to be covered by linebackers.
The Bengals have struggled to cover tight ends recently. Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski torched them in Week 6 for 7/162/1 and Browns tight end Gary Barnidge hit them for 6/66/0 last week. Keep an eye on the injury report, and if Reed plays this is a nice stack.
Alex Smith ($6,800) + Travis Kelce ($5,700) = $12,500
The Chiefs travel to Indianapolis in Week 8 in what looks to be a high-scoring game. The Chiefs are a road favorite of 2.5 points, but looking at a game total of 50.5 points and implied totals of 27 (Kansas City) and 23.5 (Colts), it’s easy to see big offensive numbers here.
The Colts are No. 25 against the pass in the NFL and they’ve allowed 11 touchdowns passes in 2016 which is 10th worst league-wide. They’ve also surrendered the fourth-worst passer rating to the quarterbacks they’ve faced with a 101.5 rating. The Colts have given up a sixth-worst 178 receptions to opposing pass catchers through seven games.
Looking at the likeliest game script, I see Smith having to keep the foot on the pedal to keep pace in this game because of the sheer number of plays that will be run as both teams like to throw the ball. The Colts have a hard time with covering tight ends and I see Kelce as the beneficiary of a good matchup in Week 8.
However, his workload has been drastically reduced recently and while there is great upside, there is significant risk in this stack because of his usage in the passing game. The Chiefs have not thrown the ball much over the past two games against teams that looked like great matchups on paper (Oakland and New Orleans).
If this a game where both offenses march up and down the field to get near what Vegas thinks is the total, then Kelce and Smith are risky stacks with intriguing upside.
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($7,300) + Brandon Marshall ($7,400) = $14,700
The New York Jets travel to Cleveland on Sunday in an AFC matchup with a game total of 43.5 points. The Jets are a 3.5 point road favorite with an implied total of 23.5 points. This appears to be a risky selection cased off the low total, but these are two bad defenses and I think this game goes over.
The Browns are the No. 29 ranked pass defense and the Jets are the No. 26 pass defense in the NFL. The Browns have given up a league-high 18 passing touchdowns and 29 passing plays that have gone over 20 yards which is good for second-worst in the NFL.
Fitzpatrick was benched in favor of Geno Smith last week but Smith tore an ACL and Fitzpatrick came off the bench to lead the Jets to a victory over the Baltimore Ravens. It’s clear from Fitzpatrick’s comments that he’s got a chip on his shoulder, and I’d expect a very fiery Fitzpatrick Sunday.
Marshall has been quiet recently and will be shouldering the load of the passing game without slot receiver Eric Decker, but he draws a fantastic matchup on paper against a team that can’t stop the pass. Another factor here is that the Jets defense is not very good, and they might just keep their offense in a position to have to score points.
Again, this is an ultra-risky stack but one that has upside with enough value to give you great versatility in other areas of your roster.
DEFENSIVE STACKS
Denver Broncos ($5,000) + Devontae Booker ($5,600) = $10,600
The Broncos host the San Diego Chargers at home on Sunday and are favored by 5.5 points in what Vegas sees as a low scoring game. The Broncos pass defense is phenomenal as they have an outstanding tandem of cornerbacks (Chris Harris and Aqib Talib) that can lock down opposing receivers. They also get after the quarterback better than anyone, leading the NFL in sacks with 22 through seven games. It’s tough to see the Chargers doing much on offense in this game. Rookie running back
Devontae Booker gets the full workload with starter C.J. Anderson out and that means plenty of opportunity in this game.
Minnesota Vikings ($5,200) + Matt Asiata ($5,600) = $10,800
The Vikings travel to Chicago to face the Bears on Monday Night Football and they bring one of the NFL’s best and most creative defenses with them. The Vikings bring pressure from everywhere and are hard to scheme for because of their ability to change looks at the line of scrimmage which confuses opposing quarterbacks. The Bears are going back to Jay Cutler because of an arm injury to Brian Hoyer. Cutler broke a thumb several weeks ago and Hoyer had played very well in his stead, but Cutler gets the job back in Week 8. The Vikings have only given up five scores through the air in 2016 and have surrendered a league-best 63.7 quarterback rating to opposing quarterbacks. I’d expect that trend to continue this week. Asiata is in a committee with running back Jerrick McKinnon but he’s the bigger back and he is far better in pass protection, and he’ll be carrying the load while the Vikings run out the clock late in this game.
