The Josh Gordon deal is a big enough topic that we'll break it down into sections. Next, we'll examine a variety of players who our staff believes (or doubts) can redeem themselves after a bad start. We'll end the roundtable with another round of players who've been pleasant surprises early and whether we should believe in their long-term viability.
- The Patriots-Browns Trade of Josh Gordon
- Fantasy Implications of the Josh Gordon Deal
- Fantasy Trash/Hidden Treasure
- For Real/Fool's Gold
Let's roll...
The Patriots-Browns Trade of Josh Gordon
Matt Waldman: What are your general thoughts on this deal?
Jason Wood: Wow...
Bob Henry: Eeeee! (Gulp...)
Joe Bryant: It's a great move by New England and makes total sense to me. Patriots thinking they can get the most out of a guy.
Sigmund Bloom: Eagles might be kicking themselves that they didn't give this a shot with their needs and a strong culture. Maybe they can make an offer for DeVante Parker.
Wood: I would have been beside myself if the Eagles brought him in, Sigmund.
Bloom: I understand, but they should take the Pats' approach of calculated risks and betting on their culture, organization, and coaches to get the most from players.
Alessandro Miglio: As I was saying, he was a hold for me throughout this entire weekend's drama.
Bryant: I'm fascinated by your reaction, Jason. Why would you be beside yourself?
Wood: Aside from the immense risk he never sets foot on a football field again at a moment's notice? Football truly is a team game and the Eagles won in part last year because they genuinely liked each other and bought into the coaching philosophy.
Each piece you bring in that's not part of the equation has an exponential impact on degrading that foundation they've built. It's like buying into a lottery ticket upside in exchange for a track record of self-destruction that unintentionally pulls others around him into the void.
Bryant: I am baffled by the "beside myself" reaction or the indignation from folks that their team is "above" bringing in such a "miscreant" as Gordon. I don't think Gordon is a bad guy at all.
Dallas taking in Greg Hardy was one thing. I was fine with Michael Vick going to the Eagles, but I could understand how people might not be. I don't see Gordon's issues in the same range of any of those.
He might not work out in New England, but I see the risk as minimal and am fascinated at the shunning I see from some reacting to his potential arrival to their team before New England made the deal.
B.J. VanderWoude: I have the same reaction, Joe. I think if he were a guy who created a toxic environment within the locker room, the Browns would not have put up with everything they have.
I think that Cleveland is trying to turn the corner now and don't want to see anything fester, but we haven't heard a single teammate come out and bash him the way other teams did after their running back didn't report. I also don't think he can be any more of a distraction than Edelman being suspended for PED use, Brady being suspended (ridiculously), or Belichick costing his team draft picks.
Gordon has done little to earn any benefit of the doubt that those guys but the Patriots have a tight operation and it means Gordon will either be a guy who can help them or he won't be there long. He won't be a guy who will distract them from their goals.
Bryant: Totally this...
Wood: I'm on the other side. The excuses people make for freakish athleticism astound. Although I cannot fathom how anyone can conclude that Gordon is anything but a potential distraction and letdown in the making, as odd as this sounds, my view doesn't preclude this from being a move worth making for the Patriots.
It's such a unique organization in the NFL that it can afford to bring Gordon in. I still think it's more likely he'll to be off the roster in a month than becoming a huge playmaker for them all year. His behavior is cancerous to a team.
Bryant: Have you seen evidence that Gordon is a "cancer?" That's what I'm scratching my head over.
Wood: Absolutely. Let's review what we know.
- Josh Gordon is a drug addict, and a severe one, at that
- He's failed to shed those demons repeatedly
- He was banned from the league
- Through enormous leaps of faith, he got yet another shot
- Throughout all this, the Browns stuck by him
- He then returns to much fanfare, and mysteriously leaves camp to practice on his own
- The Browns stick by him
- He reports, and even though the Browns were within their rights to keep him from being vested this year, they opt to honor his service time
- Two weeks into the season, the Browns announce they're releasing him
- We shortly find out it wasn't because of another drug violation (as we all assumed) but for other reasons
- We also find out he practiced in full all week then showed up on Saturday with a 'hamstring'
- We then find out he's 100 percent (magically) today after the trade is consummated
So let's look at this logically. A team that stuck by him when even the most cursory understanding of the statistics behind drug relapse would've told them to cut bait, opts suddenly to cut him because of "other" issues. It has to be one of the following scenarios:
- He hasn't officially relapsed but they strongly fear he's using again and/or is putting himself in situations that will likely lead to a relapse -- CONCLUSION: He's caught up in his demons. Doesn't make him a bad person, keep him sympathetic but also essentially removes him from the NFL landscape forever.
- He hadn't relapsed at all but had such little respect for the only organization that believed in him, his teammates, his coaches, the fans, and ownership, that he couldn't be bothered to show up to meetings and practices on time. The finally the team had enough of a guy who should've lost his shot in the league many times over but sabotaged his behavior to get himself cut. That's not the description for a good teammate, anywhere.
The way I see it, either Gordon's demon has him, or he didn't live up to his expectations intentionally. It cannot be anything else. And since it seems he hasn't relapsed, we're left with one possibility.
Bryant: I agree for sure with the facts you listed. I just wouldn't call that behavior cancerous as I don't think it affects other people or sends a negative message. He's clearly battling addiction issues, which we both know are frustrating for folks like us who have experience being in the lives of people dealing with addiction. However, it's not cancerous. Almost all of his trouble has been failed drug tests.
The appearance is that's under control for now. Now maybe the assumption is that he can't function in the league without drugs. But it seems if they can keep him clean, he can get on the field. We'll, of course, see soon enough.
However, none of that makes me think he's cancerous for the team or asinine for the Patriots to give him a shot. With society's view on alcohol and recreational drugs, I'm surprised to see one who abuses them is seen as a pariah. It's fascinating to me.
Wood: I agree that the addiction doesn't make him cancerous. However, his behavior outside of his addiction does. He was also a big-time drug dealer. By his own admission, Gordon was making $10,000 a month at Baylor. A month!
Bryant: I think we've reached the point where we've fleshed this out thoroughly and we'll have to remain in disagreement with that point.
Wood: Agree.
Miglio: I disagree that this was a bad move by the Patriots. The trade was for a conditional fifth-round pick. If Gordon messes up, he's gone and the Pats don't bat an eye. On the flip side, Gordon could be Randy Moss-lite for Brady. The downside is minimal, and the upside is obvious.
John Lee: The one thing that we should point out here is that this is it for Gordon. If polled, I suspect that NFL general managers would universally agree that if Josh Gordon cannot succeed in that Patriots locker room, he cannot succeed in any NFL locker room.
So all of Gordon's eggs are in this basket. He either sinks or swims at this point and I don't think there is anything in between.
B.J. VanderWoude: I think it was a calculated risk with minimal downside from a football perspective. I don't think he's bad for your football culture. He's not a locker room disturbance. As far as PR optics, I have no idea, but New England just boosted their potential big time.
And John, I agree with you about this being Gordon's last chance, but I think this situation is the best thing for his career. Either he really makes the change and does his best to reach his potential or he figures out what's next in his life.
Henry: The locker room and environment thing here is interesting to me. On one hand, we view the Patriots as having a strong team, lots of leadership with Brady and others, so one is naturally inclined to think "good place for Gordon to land".We've also seen/heard numerous examples of other players who've said the exact opposite. It's tough to play in NE. Lots of pressure. Not a "fun" place. All work. Too serious. Brady himself may be a great leader but he's also super intense. Being that it is New England, I could see this going either way. If Gordon needed time to get away in Cleveland (TV / Hard Knocks or not) then the pressure cooker in NE will surely add to those demons and become even more challenging.Or, the Patriots embrace him, and he them, and this turns into one of those moments we look back and say (as many are already), "What a brilliant move once again by the Patriots." Why don't other teams do it that way? One thing for sure. It'll generate a ton of press and intrigue. Time will tell.
I am conflicted with Gordon's behavior and not really sure what to believe given that I don't think Cleveland deserves any benefit of the doubt on this or other matters. Of course, Gordon doesn't either.
Jeff Tefertiller: Maybe I see the situation differently than most, but I see it as a way to load up for a one- or two-year run for Brady's final years. The loss to Jacksonville illustrated a need. It's a win-at-all-costs, short-term move. If he fails, he fails. Not a huge impact.
Wood: Again, I think the Patriots are the only team that should take this gamble. Still, it's telling to me that supposedly eight teams inquired about him yet Cleveland took the Patriots' offer of essentially a fifth-round pick (or a swap of a fifth for a seventh, depending).
It indicates that other teams were either A) not serious about acquiring him and were just curious or B) Unwilling to risk as little as a fifth rounder for the "opportunity." The final word for me on this matter is there's a cost to bringing someone aboard, even if the traditional fiscal and draft resource costs are seen as low.
Ari Ingel: Former teammates and coaches have said that Gordon has been a good teammate. Guys like Joe Thomas even have said they really like Gordon. I also don't understand how substance abuse issues make him a cancerous locker room presence. He can be a good teammate (I guess outside of being dependable) and still have personal issues. Both can be true.
Matt Waldman: It all depends on how a team manages its employee. Because these issues are public for NFL players due to them being contracted employees and NFL owners wanting to make this information public, it's a different animal compared to other employment environments where it's either illegal to disclose (HIPPA for non-contract employees) or distasteful or unnecessary to make these issues known.
While there's a PR component that the NFL wants to get tough on criminal behavior for the good of the game, I can't help but think that there's also a component to making drug tests public so ownership can control salary negotiations and have public sentiment on its side. In this respect, I'm not a fan of drug issues being public knowledge but it's legal and acceptable for businesses hiring contracted employees — and there's often good precedent for the need.
While I agree with Joe that drug addiction doesn't automatically make a player a cancerous teammate, there's no doubt that it makes him unreliable.
If I managed a team of contracted employees and one of them was an amazing asset when available but hasn't been available for major long-term projects for years and I don't know whether I can or should build my team around his specific talents, how am I going to do my job? Personally, I would care about Gordon's health and welfare but as a leader of a business team, I would have wanted to get rid of him well before what transpired this summer.
We've all been around talented people who aren't reliable and it's not only frustrating but it can be a waste of time and resources. I'd hate to be an offensive coordinator who spent all week (or all preseason) scripting and installing a game plan that involved plays that we'd only want to run for Gordon only to learn that he can't emotionally handle the job yet and is gone for a significant part of the season. The same is true if I were the quarterback or any of those teammates.
Sorry Browns fans, but what do these coaches or players know about winning football who vouched for Gordon? Have these past coaches run winning organizations? Were these other players who vouched for him on championship teams? I don't think any of them were other than Jamie Collins.
I've stuck with Gordon on my dynasty teams because I've viewed him as a luxury worth the upside. However, if I were a part of a football organization, there is no way that I would have put up with Gordon for anywhere the length of time the Browns did. As much as I want him to do well and get his addiction under control, it is ridiculous to think that what transpired in Cleveland wasn't an amazing display of patience because they were starved for his otherworldly talent.
Gordon is the most talented receiver in football. This is different than the most refined or accomplished. Gordon's amazing season occurred under the influence. Maybe it's not on the same plain as Doc Ellis's no-hitter on LSD, but it's remarkable in its own way.
Because of Gordon's talent, I understand the extreme patience because it's rooted in a team's natural inclination to covet season-changing skill. Hardy, Vick, and Gordon do not belong in the same conversation for their behaviors and it's unfair to lump Gordon within the other two. However, it is fair to say that Gordon has done nothing to prove that he's reliable and that he's hurt his teammates and team no matter how many of them want to say nice things about him.
And I am a Browns fan still wanting to see Gordon turn this around for his sake.
Daniel Simpkins: I am a mental health therapist by day, and I have spent part of my career treating individuals with substance abuse issues. It has given me some insight into this situation that I don’t believe I would otherwise have.
I feel that Josh Gordon’s behavior has been constantly self-defeating. Self-sabotage is very common in individuals who are battling addiction. It can be overcome, but it takes time, insight on the part of the individual, and the willingness of that person to make different choices instead of sinking back into old patterns.
I remain skeptical that Gordon can conquer this issue before it ends his playing career. New England’s culture and environment give him the best chance to do so, but again, Josh Gordon is the determining factor in whether or not he is successful.
I know that the general public feels that they have to declare a winner and a loser in this deal, but I think it’s possible that both teams won by making this trade. Cleveland has been dealing with this distraction for a very long time and to finally be rid of it must be a relief.
The Browns finally have the personnel to compete with other teams and just need a few changes in the coaching staff to be a serious contender. Dismissing Gordon may have come later than it needed to, but better late than never.
As for New England, there is virtually no risk in this for them. They get a player who can greatly help their struggling offense at minimal cost. If his behavior becomes bad enough that they have to cut him, they have only lost a late-round pick.
The fantasy implications of the josh Gordon deal
Waldman: Strictly from a fantasy perspective, what do you think of the trade?
Andy Hicks: Far too often we think that talent is a better measure of success than anything else. History has repeated to us over and over again, that it is far from the defining factor.
I ranked Gordon way higher than I should have this summer and got burned after warning anyone I could about Martavis Bryant in 2017. I won’t be making that mistake again.
For a refresher course in how players who have been suspended for at least a year since Ricky Williams successfully returned, here's a list for your consideration:
- Frank Alexander – Now playing in the CFL.
- Aldon Smith – Still not reinstated.
- Dion Jordan – Made a return to NFL rosters after a three-year absence.
- Daryl Washington – Hasn’t played since 2013.
- Justin Blackmon – Hasn’t played since 2013.
- Tanard Jackson – Suspended indefinitely after returning from a year-long suspension.
- Dominic Rhodes – Never played in the NFL again.
- Johnny Jolly – Returned to play one season after missing three seasons.
- Travis Henry – Never played in the NFL again.
- Odell Thurman – Never played in the NFL again.
- Koren Robinson – Played one more season (12 games, 400 yards, and 2 touchdowns).
- Martavis Bryant – The fact he was able to record 50 receptions in 2017 has to be considered a success, but his on-again, off-again appearance on Oakland's roster indicates that is all it will be.
It leaves us with Gordon. Cleveland invested so much time into this young man and for them to walk away speaks volumes. For fantasy purposes, he should only be considered if you have a deep roster and can easily replace guys from the waiver wire. New England and Bill Belichick have demonstrated over and over again, people who make stupid decisions do not stay a Patriot for long.
If I had a deep roster on my fantasy squad, I would happily keep him for a week or two to see what happens, but in my heart, I know this is not going to end well. I wish Josh Gordon every success in the world, but he is fantasy poison.
Vander Woude: If we are to use the Patriots past moves to determine Gordon's future fantasy value, I would put his weekly points somewhere between Brandin Cooks and Randy Moss.
From a pure football perspective, I expect a lot from him because he has landed in a place that has perennially gotten more out of wide receivers they have drafted/acquired (Wes Welker, Randy Moss, Danny Amendola, and Deion Branch) than those receivers were able to achieve anywhere else. He is playing with one of the best quarterbacks of all time, for one of the greatest coaches of all time, and for an organization that's football operations are as good as any franchise in the history of the league. Gordon is a high-risk player, and he deserves that tag. His substance abuse issues have gotten the best of him repeatedly, and it is hard to look at it in any other way. With that said, he has landed in a place that has put his career in an immediate sink-or-swim mode. He will either sink and be out of the league, or he will swim and reach his potential as one of the most talented receivers in the league. I am interested in acquiring Gordon, although only if the price is right and matches his risk/reward portfolio. I have no problem using 33 percent of my free agent budget on him, perhaps even more, because his upside is as high as any player you will find on the waiver wire this year with the exception of James Connor.
Would I trade a No.2 fantasy wide receiver like Golden Tate for him? Probably not, however, I would trade a No.3 wide receiver like Randall Cobb or Kenny Stills for him in a heartbeat. I won't upset the consistency of my team for Gordon, but I will trade a receiver with boom or bust weekly potential--that has a low-risk profile, like Cobb/Stills--for him. Chad Parsons: I am skeptical of Gordon's ultimate fantasy impact. Aside from the off-field factors, the Patriots are a tough offensive to crack in terms of attention to detail, reps, trust, and fitting specific game plans. Third, Julian Edelman will be back soon and Rob Gronkowski and James White are an integral part of the offense not going away. In terms of a trade, I would pay a price of a No.3 fantasy receiver with upside level pricing in re-draft leagues. In dynasty leagues, a future first-round pick as a contender is a worthy risk-reward price for the potential upside.
Andrew Garda: If – and we've seen receivers fail to ‘get it’ here before so it is an if – he does get the hang of the offense, Gordon could put up some nice numbers. While he’s not a 1:1 comparison to Brandin Cooks, both are big-play receivers and Cooks earned 114 targets, caught 65, and earned 1,000 yards.
Gordon is capable of that and Brady is absolutely a step up from anyone throwing to Gordon before.
There’s significant risk in acquiring him but if you don't give up a ton, or you snag him off the waiver wire, you can mitigate the risk. I wouldn’t trade him if I have him, as you probably didn’t draft him thinking he’d be a key cog in your machine anyway.
Posting 40 percent of free agent bidding funds is reasonable and I’d push the button for him in regular waivers as well. I own him in a few leagues, and I’m not selling.
Sean Settle: Everyone has echoed my sentiments about the move and the risk-reward. I would burn my top waiver on Gordon for even the chance of him returning to form in a much better offense. I would be wary of a trade until we know for sure that he is going to be activated and actually play. I would be happy to part with my waiver but would not trade straight up for Gordon.
Simpkins: Assuming he can stay on the field, I love this landing spot for Gordon for fantasy purposes. The Patriots lack that true vertical element to their passing game at the moment and Josh Gordon has the ability to provide it. It will open up the field, which will help both the passing and running game.
If I were going to acquire Gordon via trade, I would deal someone on my team that I’m not terribly excited about going forward, but who is a player for whom others may have more love. Jamaal Williams comes to mind. I took him in a few leagues, thinking the Packers coaching staff might come to their senses and feature him exclusively. Williams didn’t light up the box score in the first two weeks and the beat writers that cover the team believe that the coaching staff wants to mix in Aaron Jones when he returns. If that happens, it will make this situation a dreaded three-headed committee.
If Gordon is on the waiver wire, I’m willing to give 50 percent of my budget to acquire him in a stock PPR league. At worst, I can trade him to another owner for someone I really do believe in who has had a slow start. At best, he’ll be a difference-maker for my team down the stretch.
Henry: The main driver for Gordon’s value rests entirely with his behavior, ability to stay clean, show up on time and be an accountable teammate and member of the Patriots football team at this point. It’s also safe to say, this is his last chance, but wow – what a great opportunity it is.
If you were bullish on Gordon throughout the pre-season as a Cleveland Brown, you have to be even more so now. The same risks are still in play. In fact, if Gordon couldn’t handle the pressures of playing football and staying clean in Cleveland, it’s fair to question whether he’ll have an even more difficult time in New England.
That said, if Gordon is clear to play (and healthy despite the whole hamstring scenario that was the last straw for him in Cleveland), then it’s more about getting acclimated to the playbook and developing trust with Brady. Neither of those two factors is a "gimme."
If he’s in the lineup, he is their second-best skill player behind Gronkowski and I’ll project him that way, but first I have to see that he’s acclimated, ready to play and actually on the field. Those are not trivial obstacles.
The risk associated with Gordon remains the same. The fact is that people in his position often have a difficult time staying clean and Gordon is no different. The odds are not favorable. The chances of him making it and staying clean for the full season are probably less than 50 percent, but if you focus on the path of success, then he’s in that WR1/WR2 range every week because of his upside and explosive potential on any given play.
Factoring in everything, he’s probably best to evaluate around the WR3 range as an extreme boom/bust case for the season and each week. For waivers, I’m the type to go all in, and I’d make a strong play with FAAB budget if he is available. I wouldn’t hesitate to bid over 50 percent of the budget.
Waldman: Knowing only part of the story and knowing that we won't learn more until after we can make any profitable decision as fantasy players, I'd like to tell you that I'm through with Gordon in re-draft leagues despite labeling him a value this preseason. However, I can't quit Gordon in re-draft if the opportunity is right to acquire him.
I don't know a league where someone will trade him to me without expecting the world. Maybe those of you reading this play in some of these leagues and if you do, I'm happy for you. It's not going to happen in mine.
The only way I can consider him is the waiver wire and by the time this posts, most of you reading will have had your blind bidding for the week. For those of you with Thursday or Friday evening bids, I'd only bid on Gordon if I had a strong team and I'm hoping to put it over the top and risking 50-60 percent of my budget is less likely to hurt my squad.
However, if my team is struggling and has multiple under-performing players and injuries, I'd rather have my entire budget to take numerous shots on additional players, acquire depth, and trade for players who have a track record of reliability. Gordon's substance abuse history is too much for me to invest otherwise because too much has occurred to give him a pass until he proves a lot more than he has in recent years.
In dynasty leagues, I invested in Gordon long ago and I'm riding it out because I've made space to do so. I've earned nothing on the investment since he made Aqib Talib look like a hapless Pop Warner kid out of his depth.
At this point, handling your investment in Gordon is a lot like Field of Dreams: Building a baseball diamond in your cornfield and then traveling across the country to convince a renowned writer-activist-recluse to return home with you see it because you heard voices tell you to do so is crazy. However, if you've gone this far with the risk and turn back now to sell your farm to some investor for pennies on the dollar, you're a wuss.
Fail big rather than chicken out at the final moment.
Fantasy Trash/treasure
Waldman: Each player below has underperformed to preseason expectations. In the urgent/panicky culture of fantasy football, which of these players are you dumping? Which ones are you actively searching to get dumped in your lap? Pick two backs
Pick two passers
Pick two receivers
- Allen Robinson
- Demaryius Thomas
- Corey Davis
- Larry Fitzgerald
- Jamison Crowder
- Robert Woods
- Amari Cooper
Pick one tight end
Select players from this list who you have the strongest opinion about one way or the other.
Adam Harstad: I just wanted to drop in and comment about Rashaad Penny from a dynasty slant. Between Penny's slow start and Phillip Lindsay's fast start, I've seen evidence from Twitter polls and completed trades that a lot of people in the community are starting to view them as roughly equal assets.To that end, I wanted to share a list of every running back drafted in the first round since 2000 who gained fewer than 600 yards from scrimmage as a rookie, and every undrafted running back since 2000 who gained more than 800 yards from scrimmage as a rookie. First-Round Disappointments:
- Thomas Jones
- T.J. Duckett
- Mark Ingram
- Donald Brown
- C.J. Spiller
- David Wilson
- Shaun Alexander
- Felix Jones
- Cedric Benson
- Deuce McAllister
- Tim Biakabutuka
- Larry Johnson
- Rashard Mendenhall
- Chris Perry
- Trung Canidate
*(Willis McGahee missed his entire rookie season to injury and is not included here.)Undrafted Surprises
- Dominic Rhodes
- Ryan Grant
- LeGarrette Blount
- Selvin Young
- Thomas Rawls
- Branden Oliver
- Mike Bell
The 15 first-round disappointments combined for a total of 16 top-12 finishes for the rest of their careers. They also had 11 top-24 finishes. Over half of them went on to achieve strong fantasy relevance, earning at least one top-12 or two top-24 finishes. The seven undrafted surprises combined to total two top-12 and one top-24 finish for the rest of their careers. Only Ryan Grant and LeGarrette Blount provided any notable fantasy value beyond their rookie season. This isn't to say that no undrafted free agent can ever be a star, (Arian Foster would certainly take umbrage at the suggestion). Nor is it to say that no first-round back can ever disappoint-- Chris Perry ended his career with just 1,080 total yards and 4 touchdowns. This is just a reminder that even 16 games are a very small sample size relative to everything that was considered before the draft, and 2 games are absolutely microscopic.
Waldman: I was about to berate you if you didn't mention Foster. Thanks for the opening statement. What about the rest of you on the topic above about who is fantasy trash or fantasy treasure with Adam's warning in mind? Let's focus on running backs for the moment.
Henry: I’m absolutely sticking with David Johnson and Alex Collins. The offense in Arizona is horrendous at the moment, but I’m not bailing on Johnson unless a convincing offer comes along. He’s too good of a player not to right the ship. It’s also a bet that Wilks and his staff will come around or the good old “assumption of rational coaching” mantra.
The Ravens will also settle into a better place offensively. Collins is definitely a better option when the game script is favorable. We haven’t seen much of that yet, but the sky is not falling, and Baltimore will rebound. When they do, Collins will be fine as a middle-tier RB2.
Settle: After falling victim to taking what I thought was a healthy Johnson near the top of the first round, I have already come to regret that decision. With that I have also established a new rule for myself: Never draft a running back from a bad team. Ever.
There were a lot of unknowns with Johnson after losing almost a full season to injury, but then the Cardinals made the mistake of paying him for what he did in the past before his injury. The man has his money and is not being used enough with Arizona trailing early and often in games. It is hard to call a first-round pick fantasy trash, but from a value standpoint, that is what he will be this season.
I ignored all of the signs and will most likely still stubbornly run him out there every week in the hopes that Arizona will turn it around. David Johnson is going to let down a lot of owners this year and unfortunately, I am going to be one of them.
Collins is a slightly different case in that we have no idea what kind of team the Ravens are. They blew out a Buffalo team with their vertical passing game but then were taken to the woodshed by Cincinnati.
Waldman: You mean we don't know that Buffalo stinks and Cincinnati is decent if not good?
Settle: Ha! Perhaps. Still, Collins was effectively benched after a fumble against Buffalo but came right back into the starting fold the next week.
There are three running backs in Baltimore and the team has committed to none of them. Collins has the upside of being a solid RB2 every week but that is all dependent on the play calling. I am going to have a hard time trusting Collins until the Ravens prove they are willing to make him their lead back.
Waldman: Trade him to me for what Bob said.
Settle: Deal!
Hicks: With a contract extension, David Johnson is locked into Arizona for the next three years. While that may be great for his financial well being, the new Cardinals are going to struggle following the departure of Bruce Arians and Carson Palmer.
His 17 touchdowns from 2016 are going to be a distant memory and he is unlikely to play to the elite level he was expected to until this team clicks. That may not be this year, so we have to lower expectations for Johnson considerably.
He should still be a reasonable start given his abilities as a pass catcher, but it will be almost impossible for him to reach his draft slot. He can still be a mid-tier RB2 if they figure out how to get him the ball out of the backfield and run him effectively when they aren’t being blown out. I'm not excited.
LeSean McCoy was always going to be a risk one way or another heading into the season. The off-field allegations were severe, so no one should have taken him too high, but the offensive line issues and poor quarterback play are only adding to the woes.
Given that he is now over 30, it would be a pretty good bet that he is in his final season as an NFL player, especially with the off-field drama. It is hard to see a scenario where he delivers like his old self and I would be almost tempted to dump him now, but would probably hang on for another week or two.
Simpkins: The situation wasn’t very good, to begin with, but now with the rib injury, I’m sending McCoy to my waiver wire. I’m also dumping Penny. Not only am I not a fan of him as a talent, but the situation is about as bad as it can be. The offensive line can’t pass or run block effectively, Brian Schottenheimer's play-calling is terrible, and Russell Wilson is basically having to spin gold from straw to keep this offense even somewhat respectable.
Parsons: I am buying David Johnson as there is little going on for Arizona's offense and the 'squeaky wheel' premise is ready for Week 3 after blatant misuse of Johnson for two games. I am fading Alex Collins and LeSean McCoy.
Collins has been outscored by Javorius Allen and Allen is getting red zone and passing game work, leaving empty carries and mere volume the lone potential upside in a given week for Collins. McCoy is dinged up with an injury which lingers and could be elevated in-game. Also, Buffalo's offense is bad enough, McCoy could go a month or two between touchdowns.
Garda: Right now, with the new allegations around LeSean McCoy, I’m nervous. Once is happenstance, a second time, coincidence and I’m not waiting for the third time to prove enemy action.
I’m trying to sell him as even if there’s something to clear him later, this is what the CoCommissioner'sxempt list is for, and the Bills should absolutely put him on it. Sure, he’s their whole offense, but they are going to have to learn to win without him sooner or later and he’s not exactly helping now.
I’m sticking with David Johnson, though. I get that Steve Wilks is doing a bad job of using the only worthwhile thing in his offense, but at some point, he’ll see the light and we’ll see Johnson on more pass routes (like we did in Week 1), and they will also use him on more outside runs.
Finally, I think sooner than later they pull the ripcord on Sam Bradford and start Josh Rosen. At that point, Wilks would be foolish to not lean on Johnson and his numbers will go up.
VanderWoude: Johnson is the easy answer of the player that I want to be dumped in my lap. The Cardinals have looked as bad as any team not wearing blue in New York, and Mike McCoy has not made Johnson the focus of the offense. These are the reasons I will use in my bid to acquire Johnson though.
He has as much natural talent as you will find in an NFL running back, and he fits the bill as a two-way force in the running and passing game. You can argue that his upside is higher than any other running back, and that is an easy argument when you use past performance as an indicator of a player's ceiling. Quick Trivia Question: Who is the only running back to crack 400+ points in PPR scoring from 2007-2017? David Johnson. I was an early buyer of McCoy in drafts because I thought he would not be suspended. The stronger argument was that his price in drafts (fourth-fifth round) was low if you erred on the conservative side and said he would play 12 games, as his prorated stats in 12 games surpassed the median stats of other running backs around him.
Now he has mounting legal problems and has sustained an injury to his ribs. That is before you even begin to account for the Bills factor, which after McCoy, is destined to lack a fantasy player even worthy of a bench role. He is an easy dump for me, and I would not be looking for much more than a No.4 running back with some upside. Alex Collins is a hold for me, although I'm not sure I am going out of my way to acquire him either. His role is pretty secure and the offense will normalize with respect to run/pass ratio as the season progresses. His lack of pass-catching ability makes it hard for me to see him as anything more than a solid No.3 running back, which makes it hard to gain value for in a trade. Derrick Henry is not the best running back on the Titans right now. Whether that has to do with his one-way skill set that allows teams to stack the box and dare the Titans to beat them with the pass, I don't exactly know, but I do prefer Dion Lewis in the backfield. If I could dump Henry for Lewis and a low end starting tight end, I would do that trade.
Waldman: Quarterbacks. 1-2-3, go!
Hicks: Deshaun Watson was rusty and inexperienced heading into the first two weeks of the season. Better numbers are coming as he regains confidence and clicks with his receivers. Week 2 was a significant improvement on his first game and while he looked off against the Patriots, he at least was able to move the ball well against the Titans. People cannot panic yet and big numbers are surely around the corner.
Jared Goff has played Oakland and Arizona in the first two games. To say the Rams haven’t been stretched is an understatement. Goff has still managed to do well and given the insane numbers of other quarterbacks, even if he continues on his current numbers he will easily fall inside the top 12. He is on pace for 4600 yards and 24 touchdowns. If he has to do more then the first two weeks, then that ranking moves into the single digits and more.
VanderWoude: From a pure fantasy perspective, Matthew Stafford has been fine thus far. He is the No.11 quarterback and is averaging roughly 310 passing yards and 2 touchdowns per game. That is a 4,960 passing yards and 32 touchdown pace (albeit with 32 interceptions as well), above what you thought you would get out of him to begin the season.
The remarkable play of other quarterback is not his fault, and he has a massive amount of talent around him at wide receiver. I would trade him straight up for Goff, Luck or Garoppolo, as well as Joe Flacco or Andy Dalton, the two quarterbacks directly ahead of him in this season's current rankings.
The Lions may not look good as a football team, but the fact that they are down in games has put the passing game in a good place. He is a hold, and someone I would not hesitate to acquire for the quarterbacks I mentioned above. I see Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson in a similar light. Watson has more talent around him and will be fine from a fantasy perspective. I am not in the least bit worried about a player with his skill set and receiving options.
Wilson, on the other hand, worries me because he is absolutely running for his life on the field. Yet, he somehow inspires confidence that in this scenario he can still produce fantasy points.
He is missing Doug Baldwin, and that has forced Brandon Marshall and Tyler Lockett into the top two receiver spots when in actuality they are second and third options at this stage of their careers. The running game has produced nothing of value, yet Wilson is still the No.13 quarterback and averaging 262 passing yards and 2.5 touchdowns per game.
Wilson is a survivor, the type of player you could flush down the toilet and he would walk out the other end with a plumbers license. I would rather acquire Watson because he has less risk, but I would take a chance on Wilson, being that he finished the season as the #1 quarterback last year with a team that is not much different once he gets Baldwin back. Luck is just getting his sea legs back and should be a hold as well. Garoppolo is adjusting to life as a starter after team's have tape on you, and Goff has played rather well; he just hasn't had to dig the Rams out of a deficit, which has kept his upside in check thus far. I am not panicking on any of these quarterbacks.
Parsons: I am buying Deshaun Watson and Matthew Stafford. Both have enviable wide receiver groups and Watson adds his mobility to boost fantasy scoring.
Detroit's defense is bad enough and they have yet to stick with the run game to project them as "Kansas City North" in terms of higher scoring game scripts. Jimmy Garoppolo is concerning with his lack of weapons and inaccuracy (plus questionable decision-making) thus far. The sizzle is more than the steak at a position where there is more value elsewhere.
Simpkins: Wilson is a great example of the disconnect that sometimes exists between real football and the fantasy game. The Seahawks are proving to be a mediocre-to-bad football team, so folks just assume that Wilson isn’t good. The fact is, Wilson is the only reason things haven’t completely collapsed. His improvisational skills and ability to extend the play with his legs are the only reasons the offense isn’t completely predictable and defensible. Wilson may be doing a lot of his damage in garbage time this year, but the points still count the same.
If someone unwisely cuts bait on Jared Goff, I’m jumping all over him. Todd Gurley has been soaking up a lot of the touchdown opportunities through two weeks against weak run defenses. I see games on the horizon (the Vikings and Seahawks in particular) where more competent run defenses will require Goff to pass more.
Garda: Wilson has been able to overcome the offensive line issues — and they are significant in perpetuity — but that seems to have come to a halt this season. A combination of a bad plan for the running backs and an injury to Doug Baldwin has seemed to kibosh Wilson pretty significantly. Trying to make Rashaad Penny happen when he’s clearly not ready rather than role with Chris Carson isn’t helping.
This is probably hurting Fantasy GMs a lot but hold the course. Baldwin will be back and I feel confident Pete Carroll will regain sanity, get Carson off special teams and used more. The defense is also not good, which means Wilson will continue to have to throw.
Seattle won’t be good but expect Wilson to be a productive fantasy player once his weapons are in order. Hold on, it will come.
As for Goff, yes it was the Cardinals who are arguably the worst team in the NFL right now, and yes the LA Chargers are a good defensive team but don’t give up here yet either.
First, I think part of what we are seeing is the issues you get when you add a new player like Brandin Cooks to the mix. He and Goff are still getting synced up.
Secondly, there are some favorable matchups not far off like the Seahawks, Chiefs, and Saints, all of whom can be thrown on. It’s slow going now, but Goff will be much more productive as the season progresses.
Settle: I personally put a lot of stock into Watson for this season and I am going to stick to it. He looked much more comfortable with the return of Will Fuller and were it not for an overturned big play to DeAndre Hopkins, Houston would have won last week.
Watson has the skill set and weapons to succeed in this league as a dual-threat quarterback, but he is still working off some of the rust to a lost season. There will always be some growing pains with young passers but look for Watson to rebound in a big way this season and finish in the top 10 for quarterbacks.
The Bears made Russell Wilson look like a rookie backup quarterback who had never started in the league before. He threw his first pick-six in over 2000 attempts, was sacked 6 times, and fumbled twice. With all that being said, I am still confident in Wilson’s ability.
He starts slow every year and then turns it on at the right time. He lost his top option in Doug Baldwin and is still trying to figure out what he has in this new offense. The defense has fallen apart, and it will be up to Wilson to keep teams in games more than ever before. The numbers may look ugly so far, but I fully expect for Wilson to still finish in the top five for quarterbacks this season. If someone makes the mistake of giving up on Wilson early this year, jump on this fantasy treasure.
Henry: I’ve consistently and stubbornly stuck to my guns on Deshaun Watson and I’m not about to bail now either, especially after seeing Will Fuller back in the lineup in Week 2. The top of the quarterback ranks looks a little different today thanks to Patrick Mahomes II and a knee injury to Aaron Rodgers, but I’d argue that Watson has every bit the upside of any of his peers going forward. Similarly, I’m also doubling down on Andrew Luck after drafting him at a nice discount in drafts this summer.
The one that gives me the most concern in this group is Russell Wilson due to the lack of talent surrounding him and the amount of pressure he is facing week in and week out. He has done magical things in similar situations before, but the first two weeks paint a daunting picture for his chances going forward.
Waldman: Who are your receivers, Bob?
Henry: I’m sticking with Allen Robinson simply because of the dominant target share he has commanded through the first two games. The scores will follow at some point, but he is healthy and has a strong floor to deliver value going forward.
The player I would bail on, or have lower expectations for, is Jamison Crowder. He doesn’t have the same upside as the others on this list and I don’t really trust Alex Smith to help get him into a place where he’ll consistently return value above his weekly VBD baseline (WR36).
Parsons: I am buying Amari Cooper as he has the highest target upside of this group and he has been limited by quizzical lack of use in the past. However, the Raiders offense has little other direction to turn.
Jamison Crowder is the easy fade answer as Alex Smith has been peppering Jordan Reed and the running backs over any wide receiver presence. Also, few slot-centric receivers are worthy of consideration with any meaningful upside.
Demaryius Thomas also deserves a mention as he looks to have lost multiple steps and struggles to separate or produce after the catch. With Courtland Sutton off to a solid start, the pendulum will start to swing away from Thomas by midseason.
VanderWoude: I have to admit that I was wrong about Allen Robinson. I never doubted his talent. In fact, I was a champion of his talent as a big play, deep threat receiver who was able to make plays when covered by top-tier cornerbacks.
What I underestimated was his fit in the Chicago system, and how that translated with Mitch Trubisky's skill set. Trubisky's best match in terms of his skill set is Alex Smith. Trubisky's arm is a little more live when throwing deep, but Smith's intelligence and mobility are off the charts.
Robinson has shown an ability to run the full route-tree and play as both a possession receiver and continue to be a deep threat. Robinson has 14 catches for 144 yards and although he has not caught a touchdown, I'm confident that they will come. I am definitely a buyer on Robinson, as he is the undisputed No.1 receiver on a team that will hand him a large target share, and he is currently second in market share of team's air yards. I am also a buyer on Robert Woods. The Rams have not had a game script where the passing game has had to become a priority, yet Woods has still seen nine targets in each of the Rams first two games. Additionally, Woods is seventh in market share of team air yards. The players in front of him, Julio Jones, Allen Robinson, Odell Beckham Jr, AJ Green, Corey Davis, and Adam Theilen.
Hicks: The play of Demaryius Thomas has noticeably declined over the last two years and it won’t be long before he has to face the Dez Bryant treatment in Denver. His contract is almost untenable in 2019 given his current production and while his week one production may have masked the obvious signs, his week two stat line against the Raiders is clearly worrying.
Earning five receptions for 18 yards from 11 targets is awful for a star receiver. Courtland Sutton is tracking nicely, while Emmanuel Sanders is clearly the target of choice for Case Keenum.
There is no way I way I would be jumping off Robert Woods now. Brandin Cooks is doing as I, but not many others expected. Robert Woods has been targeted numerous times downfield and against the Raiders was literally inches away from three big plays.
Earning 81 yards on 6 catches in a blowout against the Cardinals is also impressive. Once the Rams actually play some teams with ability, Woods will get his share and more. This is a loaded outfit and Woods can easily reach WR2 status very soon.
Settle: Drops have always been an issue for Thomas and after a crucial drop against the Raiders that almost blew the comeback effort, it may be time to reevaluate the receiver. Emmanuel Sanders has been playing very well for the Broncos and took over in the second half last week. If I had any say in the coaching staff I would lobby to feature more Sanders and less Thomas. He is entering his ninth season in the league and appears to be on the decline. Sanders and Lindsay are the future of that offense; look for Thomas’ numbers to continue to decline.
The Raiders are looking like a modern version of the Browns with all of their recent changes. Nothing they do seems to make sense in terms of winning football games. However, Cooper is the most dynamic playmaker in that offense and once Gruden realizes that things should turn around.
There is no commitment to a power running game with Lynch or to a high flying spread offense with Cooper. Carr started to feed Cooper against the Broncos and found more success than anything they have done all season. Look for Cooper to get going again in a big way for the rest of the year.
Simpkins: The smothering defense has been th
