The FFPC and FPC award 1.5 points for a reception by tight ends but only a single point to running backs and wide receivers. How significant is this? How does your strategy change at tight end in this scoring system?
Jeff Pasquino: I've covered this topic several times in the past and it does definitely impact strategy.
In my opinion, the tight ends go too soon because of the perception of huge advantage and big bumps in value, but as you can see from the prior work - the perception is flawed. The best tight ends (80+ catches a season) only get 2-3 extra points a week at the most on average. Because of the ADP shift, you almost have to grab a Top 10 tight end earlier than you would want, but the good news is that most everyone else is doing the same, so it works out in the end. Just don't get caught without a Top 10 tight end. I would not go hard after Graham or Gronkowski just because of the extra 2-3 points a week.
Maurile Tremblay: Depending on league structure, the extra half point per reception can be a big deal.
In a league that starts one tight end per team, it doesn't make much of a difference. A tight end who gets 70 receptions on the year will get 35 extra points -- just over two points per game. But if all tight ends got 35 extra points, it would change nothing at all. The reason it matters just a little is that a tight end who gets 60 receptions on the year will get only an extra 30 points, so there's an extra five points of distance separating the 70-reception guy from the 60-reception guy. That's a difference of less than a third of a point per game, however, so you can almost completely ignore it.
But now consider a league with a flex spot. The 70-reception tight end gets only 5 extra points compared to a 60-reception tight end -- but he gets the full 35 extra points compared to any running backs or wide receivers. That has two large effects.
First, it makes tight ends much more attractive as flex players. In a standard point-per-reception league, a good TE2 in the TE14-TE19 range would be roughly comparable to a running back in the RB35-RB40 range or a wide receiver in the WR63-WR68 range in terms of flex value. But in a league that gives 1.5 points per reception to tight ends, a tight end in that same TE14-TE19 range would become roughly comparable to a running back in the RB30-RB35 or a wide receiver in the WR50-WR55 range. That makes tight ends relatively more valuable, and they should be drafted earlier for that reason alone.
Second, as more people draft tight ends with an eye toward starting them in a flex spot, tight ends on the whole become more scarce. The decent ones are depleted faster. So while TE2s gain value as potential flex players, TE1s also increase in price due to scarcity.
The upshot is that, in a league with one flex spot, going from 1.0 to 1.5 points per reception for tight ends means that tight ends should generally be drafted about a full round earlier than normal. With two flex spots, the effect increases further.
Andy Hicks: Jeff and Maurile are basically advising that tight ends are going to be overvalued in drafts of this nature and you have two choices:
a) Ride the wave and get one a good one earlier than you normally would.
or
b) Snap up value at other positions
While as Maurile pointed out variations in scoring systems can have a huge impact, you need to believe that a tight end you draft is going to be worth the investment. There is no point in taking Martellus Bennett in the 3rd round because he is the highest rated tight end left on the board.
Predraft you'd probably never imagine having to consider someone like Zach Ertz in the 4th round or Ladarius Green in the 8th, but you need to have a plan going in which is adjustable on the fly.
At some stage you will have to take tight ends, either go early or target some guys with Upside later.
If you avoid the position during the initial run, load up at other positions and grab a bunch of guys hoping that one sticks. You should be strong at other positions here, so depth in those categories won't be as important.
Stephen Holloway: Maurile hit the nail on the head that the extra 0.5 ppr for tight ends really makes a greater impact when the position can be flexed. When the tight end position is not included in the flex it is not as critical because there are more tight ends with a lot of receptions than in the past and the separation from the TE3 or TE4 down to TE15 is just not that great. Jimmy Graham and a healthy Rob Gronlowski are the exceptions because they catch as many passes as the top wide receivers and typically score more often. I might reach for one of them, but if I miss out on those two, then I would be patient and wait till after an equal number to the number of teams has been taken.
Sigmund Bloom: Getting a Graham/Gronk/Cameron/Thomas early is crucial. The tight end premium will widen the gap between the elite tight ends and the pack and in general tight ends are going to go earlier than expected throughout the draft. So if you aren't comfortable with Cameron in the 3rd, will you be any more comfortable with Ertz in the 5th? Get your sure thing stud early and target a few sleepers late.
Jeff Pasquino: I completely disagree. The numbers just don't support this - only the perceived value (which artificially inflates tight end value) should make you even think about taking a tight end early. Aside from Graham, who is a first round pick no matter the format, all the rest of the tight ends are not worth their ADP in these premium leagues. The smart plan is to go after a Top 5-10 guy 1-2 rounds earlier than you normally would and just pay that extra price of getting a Top 10 tight end - mostly because everyone else is doing the same. It is just like an auction league where you think all the quarterbacks should be in the $20-40 range and everyone else is bidding them up to $60. Buy one at $30-50 and move on, knowing that even though you overpaid, so did everyone else and by a much bigger amount.
