It seems that the generally accepted strategy is to wait on a defense and a kicker. However, is there ever a time where it's better to land a stud at either spot? At defense, do you prefer a drafting a committee? What are your thoughts on grabbing waiver wire defenses before they play weak offenses? Or do you simply prefer to go after a top-tier team and essentially plug them in every week regardless of their opponent?
Matt Waldman: If I love how my draft is unfolding and have some awareness where I believe I can land talent in the later rounds that I believe is vastly underrated, then I may take a chance on a defense in the range of the 9th-12th round of a 20-round draft if the league scoring gives me a chance at having a decided advantage and I won't have to focus on weekly maintenance.
Generally, I've been playing waiver wire defenses until the new reality of the regular season manifests and solidifies enough (usually by late September - early October) that I can find one to roll with. Still, the worst-case of playing the waiver wire isn't a bad one unless you're in a FBGs staff league where 2/3 of your opponents are doing it. Then you don't always get your pick as easily as leagues where you're one of only two owners practicing this approach.
Jason Wood: I'm generally in agreement with Matt. I think you have to look at the two positions differently. In terms of kickers, the only reason to not wait until the last round is because you're toward the end of the second to last round, you already love your squad, and you want to secure a PK with a very late bye week. My only goal with a PK pick is to grab someone on a good offense with a bye week at least halfway through the season.
Defenses are much different and really tie into the scoring system. If you have a plain vanilla setup, many defenses are strikingly similar, particularly over the course of a whole season. In that case there's merit to grabbing a truly elite unit. The rub of course is making sure the defense you take a bit early actually delivers the goods. I will -- and have -- targeted the Seahawks and 49ers in the latter third of my drafts if the scoring creates enough potential VBD X-value. As much as I love the theory of committee defenses, I find it doesn't work in practice particularly if your rosters aren't deep enough to justify carrying multiple defenses week to week.
Chad Parsons: I have zero interest in spending more than my final two picks of a draft (or $1 each in an auction) on a defense and kicker. For the defense I look for favorable Week 1 matchups alone, which leads me to the Redskins (facing Philadelphia) and the Colts (against the Raiders) this season. I have had no resistence getting either one in drafts thus far. For kickers, I want a strong leg and ideally a dome stadium. Blair Walsh, Greg Zuerlein, and Dan Bailey are on my short-list of options. Playing the weekly matchups at these positions has become an enjoyable part of the fantasy season for me and our own Sigmund Bloom does an outstanding job with his defense by committee article each week during the season.
Adam Harstad: I think defense is a great position to evaluate what the rest of your league is doing, and then do the opposite. If everyone in your league is rostering a single stud defense and starting them every week, that means you have your pick of matchups between the other 21 teams, and playing the waiver wire is by far the best way to go. If everyone in your league is attempting to play the waiver wire every week, on the other hand, that means you can nab the best defense and start them every week while everyone else is fighting over 2nd-tier matchup plays. When your entire league zigs, the best value can be had by zagging, instead.
In terms of what strategy is objectively best- what strategy will result in the most points for your lineup over the course of the year- by far the best option is a hybrid of the two approaches. Roster a top-3 defense, start them every week they aren't playing a top-10 offense, and play the matchups when they are. Year after year, this strategy will consistently result in the most points over the course of the season. The only problem is identifying before the season starts which defenses are actually top 3. Last year, the Bears were by far the best defense, but they were drafted on average as the 7th defense off the board. The Broncos were another top defense, and they were selected 14th on average.
Because defense is so much more unpredictable than the skill positions, it makes little sense to invest in one early, even if you do hope to try the "stud + matchups" strategy. You won't know which defenses wound up being the elite ones until several weeks into the season (and, as was the case with the 2012 Seahawks, you might not even know by then). Instead, you're better off planning on churning defenses early in the year until you finally land a good one, and then switching to the "studs + matchups" strategy from that point on.
Jeff Pasquino: First, regarding kickers - there is rarely a situation that I will want to take a kicker before the second-to-last or last round in a given draft. Only in Draftmasters or Survivor-type leagues where roster transactions are prohibited will I consider a different strategy. Otherwise, I agree with Jason that I just want to secure a kicker that has a good weather scenario and bye, and preferably be on a team that scores a lot and plays with a lead. No one wants their kicker to be on a team that struggles or is "going for two" or "must get the touchdown" in the fourth quarter. Field goals are worth 3-5 times as much as extra points, depending on scoring, so I prefer kickers with favorable climates or domes and guys on teams that might struggle in the Red Zone.
Now, as far as defenses - that is where I will have a few different strategies. In a league with a shallower bench, I am likely to only take one and probably will target a defense I like (good schedule, maybe a late bye, good kick returner, solid IDP guys who force turnovers, etc.) that I might take a few rounds before the end of the draft just to secure the position. Defensive scoring systems vary a lot, so I will definitely look at the top defense's scores from last year and see how far above they are from the middle of the road defenses. If the defenses are averaging 10+ points a week, that's significant enough to consider getting a better one earlier.
Leagues with deeper benches (20 or more roster spots) may require more thought when it comes to picking a defense. Some teams may take two, which will limit the waiver wire. This is where a defensive team by committee may make sense, since over half of the defenses could get snapped up. Here I might take two only with the last 2-3 picks, but even then I might want to think about holding one better defense and rolling the dice on a sleeper with that last pick.
Odds are that I will have identified a few options, and will target my top defense after about half the league has taken their defense already. My plan with that defense will already be determined if I get them (if they have a great schedule early and late in the year for the fantasy playoffs, for example, I will plan to keep them all season long and just cover their bye week or bad matchups with waiver wire moves). If I feel good about my team and if defenses score well in that league, I will likely go ahead and draft one defense and roll with them for the first several weeks of the season.
Andy Hicks: I don't think I'm going to be radically different from any of the other guys. For a defense, if as Matt said I like the way my draft is going I might look to take Seattle or San Francisco earlier than I normally would, but if not then I'm happy to look for defences with favourable schedules. Clayton Gray's strength of schedule is a big help, as is Chase Stuart's Defensive Team by Committee article. Once the season settles into a groove, you can usually cherry pick defenses with good matchups weeks in advance and rotate throughout the season. Sigmund Bloom has a great weekly article that helps you here. I you are in the type of league that tends to have 2 or more defenses kept then please read the 2 preseason articles I suggested to get a headstart without sacrificing earlier draft picks.
For kickers, I prefer playing in leagues that don't have them, but if they are an unfortunate necessity then you need to cut out any risk. Poor offenses, cold weather football, a good bye week, young kickers and old kickers. That should leave you with about 3 kickers to figure out. The first 3 reasons are reasonably obvious when deciding on kickers, but the age thing is a concern through years of experience. The old kicker eventually hits a wall and no matter what their offense is like, they will kill your side once they are done. Examples of this would be David Akers last year. The younger kickers can blast their way into the league, but all kickers eventually have a period where they start missing easy kicks. A guy that has been in the league a few years can usually ride this out better than a younger kicker who takes longer to recover. Blair Walsh and Greg Zeuerlein looked great in their rookie years, but I'd be a little bit cautious of taking either in case they get the yips. Both are in ideal circumstances though so if you haven't been burnt by the young kicker blues in the past, they make great selections.
