When everyone else zigs, sometimes it’s a great idea to zag.
This is as true in fantasy football as it is in life.
While the tendency to grab a running back early is understandable, it’s always a great idea to consider going against the herd. These days not snagging that running back early has more benefits than ever, made possible by more running-back-by-committees than ever before which bring a deeper group of backs in the NFL.
Sure, Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy are great to have on your roster, but if you’re not picking at the top of the draft, you’re probably not getting them.
After that you can grab the next best back—Marshawn Lynch, Eddie Lacy, Matt Forte—or you can wait and grab a back later on. This allows you to shore up another position which lacks the depth of the running back class, but still get a very good running back later.
With that in mind, I took a look at the current ADPs (average draft positions for those of you new to all this) for running backs and tagged five players who are absolutely worth waiting on as well as where you can grab them as of right now.
Bernard Pierce, Baltimore Ravens
Current ADP: 102/RB37
It was a little shocking to find Pierce going this late, though there may be enough people believing Ray Rice (ADP 60/RB 27) is going to bounce back post-two game suspension to push Pierce back and Rice up.
There’s an awfully good chance that Pierce could take over on the No. 1 spot in Baltimore before Rice ever retakes the field though.
I’ve long thought Pierce was a starter waiting to happen, and now he should have the opportunity to show it. The offensive line has improved and the new scheme Gary Kubiak is bringing to town should be a huge help in rebuilding the run game.
Pierce and Rice have been rotating a lot in the preseason, and Pierce has even been the "starter" the last two preseason games. Pierce is a guy who fits Kibiak's scheme more completely than Rice. Pierce is a one-cut and go runner entering into a scheme which thrives off of that kind of player. He'll have two weeks at least to prove it and who knows if Rice will be in good enough shape to have an impact in the first game or two back as well.
Pierce could have up to a month to steal this job.
Any way you slice it, Pierce will have a chunk of carries and has the chance to be a true lead back. You can snag him imuch later than Rice now and he’ll provide some great value for the spot.
Terrance West, Cleveland Browns
Current ADP: 104/RB39
A lot of people are on the Ben Tate train (ADP 59/RB 26) but I'm investing my money out West.
OK, awful puns aside, we’re talking Ben Tate—a guy who is banged up all season long and has already been hurt this preseason. Rookie Terrance West had a great camp and while his preseason games haven’t been Hall of Fame worthy, he has played very well behind backup offensive linemen and is looked at right now as a close No. 2 to Tate’s No. 1.
The theory back in July was that West would get about 10 carries a week, but with Tate’s health a concern, the team will in all likelihood do more with him. And then you’re just a bum ankle away from a starting running back in a great system for backs.
That you can snag him in the tenth will mitigate the risk and the upside is getting a productive back later in your draft.
Andre Williams, New York Giants
Current ADP: 132/RB48
Williams is unlikely to get a full load of carries—he’s not a good receiver and has a lot of work to do in pass-blocking as well.
That said, the team is very much interested in using him as a short yardage and goal line back and at his size, he should be very successful.
Of course, there are some concerns right now that the Giants offense isn’t looking too good, but you can chalk that up to a new system after a decade of Kevin Gilbride’s system. They’ll get it, in which case, Williams will get a lot of short yardage looks and score a lot of touchdowns.
While Williams isn’t likely to be a starting fantasy back, he should be a very good addition to a running back by committee or as a flex back.
Someone who can put up points but won’t kill you on the price. He looks poised to be a massive touchdown vulture and would be a great addition to your lineup on a consistent basis.
Steven Jackson, Atlanta Falcons
Current ADP: 78/RB30
Coming back down to earth from the deeper reaches of fantasy backs, it seems to me that the ADP for Steven Jackson is a bit off kilter.
Yes, the Falcons were a mess last season and Jackson was a disappointment, but the offensive line is improving (though the loss of Sam Baker is going to sting) and the offense should be healthy again.
As will Jackson, who prior to 2013 had missed just two games in the previous four seasons.
Yes, he’s over the dreaded 30 age gap, but not every back breaks down immediately upon hitting the big THREE OH and Jackson can still be effective. He will have enough opportunity and the passing offense will assure him he won’t face many stacked fronts.
While he won’t be finishing among the top five or ten running backs in fantasy, Jackson has plenty left in the tank and is going to put up some nice numbers.
Joique Bell, Detroit lions
Current ADP: 62/ RB28
People tend to focus on Reggie Bush when talking about the Detroit Lions’ running game, but shouldn’t overlook his friend Joique Bell. While Bush will get a lot of touches overall, the carries themselves look like they will be at least a 50/50 split—and might tip in Bell’s direction beyond that. My expectation is that Bell will also get goal-line carries as well.
Given that Bush will be split out wide and thrown at a lot, there will likely be a ton of opportunities for Bell to carry the rock.
That makes him a lot more valuable than your average RB3, which is his ADP right now. Bell could very well be the guy who breaks out this year, assuming he can stay healthy.
Which in turn makes him a perfect candidate to wait on while you grab an extra top fantasy tight end, receiver or quarterback early.
