The Top 10: Week 7

The Top 10 features Matt Waldman's film-driven analysis to help GMs manage their fantasy squads.

Matt Waldman's The Top 10: Week 7 Matt Waldman Published 10/15/2024

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The Top 10: The Cliff's Notes

  1. Buccaneers RB Sean Tucker may have rendered the Bucky Irving-Rachaad White debate moot.
  2. Chargers RB Kimani Vidal showed why the Jim Harbaugh-Hassan Haskins tie was narrative. 
  3. The Ravens' defense stretched Jayden Daniels, but it didn't break him. That's a promising thing.
  4. Baker Mayfield struggled against the Saints, but where he has improved is his saving grace. 
  5. Chris Godwin's excellence is emerging from the shadow of Mike Evans in fantasy and real life. 
  6. DK Metcalf is a very good receiver who limits himself from becoming a great one. 
  7. Brock Purdy is illustrative of what national "film guys" still have lessons to learn about QB evaluation. 
  8. George Kittle's route-running craft is what separates him from the rest of the fantasy tight-end room. 
  9. Drake Maye survived his first start. That's the good news, but it's about to even get harder. 
  10. Five fantasy insights: Spencer Rattler, Bub Means, Tyler Goodson, Alec Pierce, and Stefon Diggs. 

1. Is Sean Tucker the Answer to the Irving-White Debate? 

Last week, I showed why the Rachaad White-Bucky Irving referendum on talent was a bad argument and their committee dynamic would stay in place. White has power and receiving skills but his decision-making isn't special and he's not extraordinarily explosive. Irving is slippery, has receiving skills, and his decision-making is good, but he lacks top-end speed and power. 

The real question waiting below the surface of this debate was one I raised this summer: Is Tucker the underrated fit in this Tampa Bay scheme? If we're being accurate, it's also one I raised last summer: 

"...Tucker's big-play ability as a cutback runner could earn him significant playing time. I think Tucker is a superior talent to White, but White has a full year of professional experience that could give him a tenuous edge for now. If White hasn't improved the details of his game, Tucker has enough of them to generate yards that White leaves on the field.

If the offensive line doesn't perform well, it just might come down to which back has more breakaway ability. Tucker is the answer."

Fast-forward to the present and we just watched Tucker deliver 190 yards from scrimmage and 2 touchdowns against the Saints with Irving healthy and contributing. My friend Dwain McFarland characterized Tucker's touches at the end of the game as "garbage-time touches," but I don't think that's accurate. 

Garbage time is when the opponent has the lead and defenses are playing soft coverage to bend but not break. This leads to fantasy points. 

Tucker earned "close-out" touches. Coaches give these touches to backs when the offense has a lead and the defense knows the team wants to run out the clock. Those close-out touches began for Tucker in earnest with 11:36 left in the game and up by 17 points, not 4:19 left and up by 24. 

Although Tucker earned 64 yards on that final drive with 4:19 left, he still had 126 yards from scrimmage and a score before that final drive. Tucker, Irving, and the Buccaneers' offensive line wore out the Saints defense all game and Todd Bowles gave Tucker the spoils--trusting him to keep the outcome secure. 

A coach awarding close-out touches can be a significant milestone and an indication of future opportunities on the horizon. Irving earned them with his acceleration, cutback running, receiving ability, and deep speed. 

Is Tucker the immediate answer to the Buccaneers' ground game? He should be, but that's not usually how it works. Starters don't lose jobs due to injury. 

However, the starter could spend more time in recovery because the backup is hot, and when the starter returns, he could be splitting time with a third back and have a shorter leash. Todd Bowles characterized his running back rotation as a "three-headed monster" on Monday. 

Tucker is worth adding to your roster as an RB4-RB5 who has a top-15 fantasy ceiling in any given week due to his breakaway speed and overall skills. He has the best mix of skills that White and Irving offer separately. 

2. Is Kimani Vidal the Future of the Chargers Backfield?

If J.K. Dobbins gets hurt, Vidal's future would be now. Otherwise, he's skilled enough to claim at least a committee role with Dobbins if the Chargers take the potential "out" with Gus Edwards' contract. 

Dobbins has performed well enough that if he stays healthy, he'll be the odds-on favorite to earn a contract extension with Los Angeles or a second deal in 2026. Vidal will still factor and based on his pre-draft scouting report and what we saw on Sunday, there's reason for optimism. 

Vidal displayed the acceleration, power, contact, balance, and passing-down skills that made him the Rookie Scouting Portfolio's No.6 RB in this class. I compared him favorably to D'Andre Swift "with more acceleration, power, and better vision, but off-brand college resume that will affect his draft stock." 

Other players in Vidal's comparison range included Ahmad Bradshaw and Jaylen Warren. If he surpasses all expectations, Maurice Jones-Drew is at the top of the spectrum. 

3. Jayden Daniels Got Stretched--And It Was Good for Him

Four things stuck out with the Commanders-Ravens game concerning Jayden Daniels. 

  1. The Ravens limited the effectiveness of the Commanders' short passing game and forced Daniels to throw downfield more often. 
  2. The Ravens walled off the edges with their pass rushers and got interior pressure, hemming in Daniels at key moments. This forced some inaccurate throws and interceptable targets. 
  3. When forced to throw downfield, Daniels performed well outside of those pressure-filled moments. 
  4. Tony Romo oversold Daniels' ability to use his eyes as a manipulation tool in this game. Many of the plays we saw had built-in look-offs as window dressing for a primary read. Daniels is promising here, but not as extraordinary as Romo characterized. 

Baltimore was Daniels' sternest test so far, and he acquitted himself. There is a chance the Ravens are just the beginning of schematic tweaks that could impact Daniels' performances in the coming weeks, but I only see four teams with the personnel to test him:

  • Chicago in Week 8
  • Pittsburgh in Week 10
  • New Orleans in Week 15
  • Atlanta in Week 17

Other than the Steelers and the Saints, I'm optimistic you can start Daniels at will without fear of a significant regression in play. Watch for injuries to the Commanders' offensive line and skill talent. Enough hits to the surrounding talent could alter this projection. Otherwise, fire away. 

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4. Baker Mayfield's Improved Pocket Sense Saved Him

Interceptions are a part of quarterbacking. Two of Mayfield's three interceptions were tipped targets--one by a defensive lineman and one by rookie receiver Jalen McMillan. Mayfield also had two near-interceptions that were his fault during the final drive of the half. 

It wasn't a great day for Mayfield, but NFL good quarterbacks have an expanded toolbox to overcome bad moments. The tool Mayfield has added to his bag since leaving Cleveland that is making a difference with his game is his new-found efficiency with climbing the pocket. 

Mayfield was often a flush-first or retreat-first pocket mover. He only climbed when it was part of the rhythm of a set play and a clear lane was there. As you can see above, Mayfield is making short climbs in messy pockets, and it's helping him find quick solutions he never had access to when flushing and retreating.

This skill increases Mayfield's opportunities to transcend mistakes and deliver fantasy-worthy production on "bad days." 

5. Chris Godwin's Emergence from Mike Evans' Shadow

I've long maintained that Godwin was one of the most underrated receivers in the NFL. He can play all three receiver roles, win against press-man coverage, win contested targets, read coverage like a quarterback, and run after the catch with speed, power, and agility. 

This highlight above isn't a display of all those skills, but I'm sure you can find a lot on YouTube that will show you all that you need to see my point. Mike Evans' best skills carried more schematic gravity as a big-play artist, but Godwin is one of the most well-rounded receivers in the game you never hear discussed in that vein outside of Tampa. 

Godwin is fantasy football's WR1 in PPR formats. Count on him to remain a top-five option until the end. 

6. Why DK Metcalf Is Blocking His Elite Ceiling

Blessed with size, strength, length, speed, and route-running skills for his role, Metcalf is a very good NFL receiver and perennial top-20 fantasy receiver. As good as he is, he can be better and the reason is frustrating. 

Metcalf has had one top-five season at his position. It's hard to reach that level year after year--even for options we consider better players. It's why I believe we'll never see Metcalf get inside the top-5 again unless he addresses this issue. 

7. What the "Film Guys" Miss on Brock Purdy; QB Evals

A lot of "film guys" in the football analysis world are X's and O's specialists. They know formations and coverages. This is valuable but they can overcompensate with this knowledge to the point of becoming football's version of grammarians--people who appreciate sentence diagrams more than the overall work. 

This is what's happening in the Purdy debate. These see plays like the one below and believe Purdy is lucky. They are missing a key part of what drives a lot of Purdy's play. 

The best quarterbacks read the coverage and the leverage of the key defenders in that coverage. Leverage is the position of the defender relative to the route he's near (or covering).

Most analysts are taught about coverage, but leverage reading has been a less-discussed skill. It has been seen as a craft that the top passers have an intrinsic ability to determine but in recent years, there has been a movement to teach it.

Purdy is far more than a manager with elite skill talent surrounding him. He manipulates coverage and possesses excellent anticipation. 

We overrate arm talent and size. We underrated timing, placement, and pocket management. We also underrate leverage reading.

8. George Kittle's Elite Route-Running Craft

These three routes below underscore the variety of skills Kittle possesses with releases and stems to gain separation on a variety of coverages. 

Kittle can compete at a starter level because he has athletic skills. He's an elite producer because of his technique and craft. These are the types of players to bet on. 

9. Drake Maye Survived--The Horror Is Just Beginning

Maye threw three touchdowns in his debut as a starter. Two of them came after the Texans built a significant lead. Two of them also came against Cover 1--a single-high safety with man-to-man coverage outside that is a simple coverage to attack in the college game. 

We're looking for signs that a young quarterback can handle the most sophisticated elements of NFL coverages. Maye's successes weren't against those elements. 

More often, we saw a steady stream of pressure disrupted Maye's time in the pocket. When he had time, Maye was inaccurate in the middle of the field. 

NFL quarterbacks must win in the middle of the field. With the Patriots fielding a patchwork offensive line, and young and inexperienced receivers, expect Maye to struggle this year. He's a tough, big-armed thrower with mobility but he's about to take a beating. 

10. Five Fantasy Insights

  1. Spencer Rattler performed well on designed plays that got him on the move. Blitz packages influenced reckless decisions. Temper optimism.
  2. Rattler's teammate Bub Means caught the ball well in relief of Chris Olave. He also had a nice release against coverage at the line of scrimmage to earn a touchdown. He has a future as no worse than a contributor off the bench, but his technique as a catcher is a notable positive. 
  3. Tyler Goodson made the big plays from the Colts' backfield. Trey Sermon blocked well and earned more of the short-yardage looks. Still, Goodson may have earned a change-of-pace role when Jonathan Taylor returns. 
  4. Alec Pierce didn't record a catch, but he drew a key defensive pass interference penalty on L'Jarius Sneed at the Tennessee 20 on 3rd and long with 10:14 left. This led to the game-winning score. 
  5. Is Stefon Diggs the same player he was in Buffalo? I haven't seen him in primary receiver scenarios like he was in Buffalo. Instead, Houston gives Diggs massive leverage advantages against coverage based on alignments and pre-snap movement. It's working, but is he the same guy? Not enough proof to say. 

See you next week.

 

Photos provided by Imagn Images
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