The New Reality No.216: Roster Spot Optimization

Navigating the ever-changing landscape of dynasty fantasy football

Chad Parsons's The New Reality No.216: Roster Spot Optimization Chad Parsons Published 09/04/2024

Managing the final roster spots of a dynasty league is a crucial element for a dynasty GM during the regular season. I have titled this group Tier 3 players, or those not likely or expected to be on your roster 12 months (or even by the end of the season) from now. This is the churn aspect of your roster where short-term flip opportunities present themselves, spot starters, situational plays, and the bucket of droppable options to address new additions from the waiver wire.

The Mindset

First, the proper mindset for these roster spots is paramount. Know that around half of your roster today will not be there 12-24 months from now. This could be dropping them to the waiver wire or trading them away. But most of the churn will be the back half of players. Embrace the variance of their roster lifeline. What is their outlook over the next few weeks - not in 2025 and beyond? Your ability to find lightning in a bottle with a spot starter for part of the season or a flip player for future picks or a better long-term player is enhanced through these Tier 3 players filtering through your roster ecosystem.

The Exceptions

Above, the lack of allegiance was discussed as the overarching mindset for the final roster spots in dynasty. However, here are the exceptions. First, Round 1-2 rookie picks will generally be at least Tier 2 or higher dynasty roster considerations and on more than a 12-month timeline for roster retention. Rookie quarterbacks who may not start right away (in premium formats primarily) or running backs on a blocked depth chart are investments where a longer leash is required, and knowing that at the outset is important.

Another exception is the "my guy" moniker. This is a dynasty, and GMs are welcome to make the team their own with their hand-selected guys. However, caution should be used when applying this tag and mindset on the roster spots. Like any bad habit, this one roster spot with a my-guy exception can easily spread into 3-4-5 spots if used too liberally. For example, having one my guy on a 25 to 26-man roster is within reason. You will be patient with their development even if their short-term outlook or rookie pick investment is not congruent to holding on face value. However, two or three of those at the moderate roster depth can be an optimization killer for waiver wire opportunities, even through a two-week sample of a season. When approaching 30, and especially beyond, roster spots, two or three can be managed. Continue the pattern from there if surging to 35 and even 40+ roster spots. A personal example I regularly reference on podcasts is Jeff Janis. I made an exception for 2-3 YEARS with a roster spot for the small school metric marvel. However, he was constantly blocked, lacked pedigree to expect even decent odds he actually claimed a starting spot for the Packers, and I hemorrhaged waiver wire opportunities weekly as a result of the long-standing moniker applied to Janis as my guy regardless of roster size or format pointing to moving to a churn spot.

Ideally, the "my guy" moniker is applied to a position that makes some priority sense in the format. For example, aligning an exception with a position of importance like quarterback or tight end in a premium format, or running back, in general, would aid the use of said roster spot.

The Value of Time

Next, consider the value of time for each roster spot. While many dynasty players are uncuttable by the general waiver wire baseline every week, there are certainly examples where the available waiver options at specific points are more valuable than even notable names universally on dynasty rosters. Personally, one key improvement over the years for my dynasty rosters has been being aware of the importance of being plugged into every waiver wire run, and the possibility of improving your Tier 2/3 player bucket for the mere cost of potential dropped players and the renewable resource of the annual waiver wire budget. Sticking too long with your bench players over the waiver wire is a hidden value loss for dynasty teams.

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Cutting the Cord

Generally, with a redraft mindset, I have penned Cutting the Cord here at Footballguys during the fantasy season in recent years. The focus is on pitching players to consider cutting or trading from your team. Much of fantasy content is centered around who to target, pick up, and start weekly. However, these pickups and targets come at a cost. A player or subset of players are falling out of favor to align with these risers or producers going forward, and rosters need to cut (or trade) players for the influx of additions. Yes, it's a negative view of the fantasy population, but the dirty work of being a dynasty GM is clearing space for the waiver wire regularly by cutting players.

Here is a working list I put together, specifically focused on cutting the cord, creating roster space, and being more efficient with roster spots. Also, some may have enough name value (or intrinsic value) to shop (trade) before you drop.

Too Many Quarterbacks

It can be easy to get sucked into too many quarterbacks in a start-1QB format. There are plenty of times in a rookie draft over the years where the best draft pedigree will be a quarterback. Also, some leagues can have NFL starters regularly on the waiver wire as the clear, most productive player available. However, especially having more than two in a moderate (or shallow) roster size format can be a killer to roster optimization. Work on paring down to two quarterbacks (or even one if 20-man or more shallow formats like FFPC where starters may be available weekly on the waiver wire if needed). It may not happen immediately with an outright cut of your QB3+ per se, but make this a goal in future weeks. Target teams who sustained an injury to their quarterback room or with a sticky bye week situation for trading.

Running Back Roulette

I love rostering running backs as much (or more) than any dynasty GM out there. However, there is a functional limit at any point, with the requisite number of other positions needed, plus new running backs bubbling up on the waiver wire with promising weekly opportunities. Blindly keeping running backs not close to being relevant or with the odds stacked against them is not prudent for roster management. Here are some 'tough cut' names to consider heading into Week 1:

RB Kevin Harris, Patriots: Released from the final 53-man roster, Harris returned to New England on the practice squad. Harris is clearly behind Antonio Gibson and RB3 at best on the depth chart, needing two injuries to be ultimately relevant. Harris is a monitor player in terms of talent to be a future starter, but the short-term outlook is too dicey for typical roster depths.

RB Ty Johnson, Bills: JJohnson lost the RB2 battle to Ray Davis. His athletic profile warrants a preemptive pickup if Davis or starter James Cook miss time, but is a cut for now. 

RB Ronnie Rivers, Rams: Rivers was the clear RB2 entering last season, but Blake Corum's addition and seizure of the RB2 role quells Rivers' roster spot validity until an injury occurs.

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs: Edwards-Helaire is worth mentioning due to his NFI list inclusion and missing at least the first four games of the season. He may be IR-eligible in your dynasty league, but if not, the absence is a killer for bench optimization in addition to Samaje Perine arriving on the depth chart.

RB D'Ernest Johnson, Jaguars: Tank Bigsby cemented in the RB2 role after Johnson won the competition in 2023 between the two. Johnson is safe on the waiver wire for now and can re-add if Travis Etienne or Bigsby miss time.

RB Alexander Mattison, Raiders: A perfect example of a tough cut is Alexander Mattison. While the RB2, Mattison has shown a lack of upside of late and would be sharing the backfield with two receiving-centric options (Ameer Abdullah, Dylan Laube) should Zamir White miss time, the Raiders offense is a lackluster one projected for this season. Of defined RB2 roles, Mattison is one of the least exciting and a possible cut in more shallow dynasty formats.

The Tight End Roster Squeeze

With tight ends, format and roster size are paramount aspects in assessing how many to collect. If a stock 1TE format and the mid-20s for roster spots, even three can be excessive if passing on primary backup running backs is the result. Also, if viable streamers are available on the waiver wire at tight end, there is less incentive to roster more than one or two at most if streaming. The dynamic changes completely in a 2TE format, especially with premium scoring and/or deeper rosters. However, even in 2022, those formats are still in the minority. Also, as a side note, 1.5 PPR scoring for the position is typically overreacted to by dynasty GMs in terms of roster spot utilization, where 1.75 or 2.0 PPR is where the scoring-centric premiums drastically change the positional value calculus.

From shallow to deeper, here are potential roster cloggers, especially if you already possess 1-2 starters on the depth chart:

TE Chig Okonkwo, Titans: Okonkwo was an efficiency monster in 2022, but on anemic volume. The routes rose last season to 22.2 per game, but his middling efficiency eroded any potential fantasy gains. Josh Whyle is likely to squeeze away enough snaps in this committee to make Okonkwo a tough streamer in 1TE formats.

TE Dawson Knox, Bills: Knox has yet to earn an even-average share of targets or yards on his routes in a season. Dalton Kincaid is a warranted breakout candidate this season and Knox is nothing more than an injury-away option at the position.

TE Tucker Kraft, Packers: Kraft had a positive rookie season but was only fueled by Luke Musgrave being out of the lineup with an injury. Musgrave is healthy entering Week 1 and will have every opportunity to be the clear starter. Also, the Packers' deep group of wide receivers stunts the upside of the starting tight end in the offense as well.

Week 1 Shots

With created roster spots, what are good Week 1 bets from the waiver wire (or holding if already having on the roster)?

QB Skylar Thompson, Dolphins: A Superflex stash, Thompson is the new Mike White, the valuable QB2 in Miami if Tua Tagovailoa misses time. Jameis Winston is valuable in Cleveland as well.

RB Tyler Goodson, Colts: Trey Sermon has been returning from an injury and the Colts have shown allegiance to Goodson over the past 12 months. Goodson could easily be the actual RB2 in the rotation with confirmation in Week 1.

RB Samaje Perine, Chiefs: One of the pinnacle pickups this week, Perine benefits heavily with Clyde Edwards-Helaire out for at least the first four weeks. Carson Steele warrants rostering as well.

RB Dalvin Cook, Cowboys: The RB1/2 roles are up in the air for Dallas with two older veterans (Ezekiel Elliott, Dalvin Cook) plus a limited profile option in Rico Dowdle. All three could have clarified starts as soon as September.

RB Emanuel Wilson, Packers: AJ Dillon is out for the season, and MarShawn Lloyd is still returning from a hamstring injury. Wilson has a window to be the RB2 and benefactor if starter Josh Jacobs misses time.

RB Cam Akers, Texans: Two Achilles injuries for Akers and he is still more explosive than Dameon Pierce. Akers can win the RB2 job in short order on a valuable Houston offense.

WR Josh Reynolds, Broncos: Benefits from Tim Patrick's exit and in line to start Week 1.

WR Noah Brown, Commanders: Jahan Dotson's trade opens up the WR2 role for Brown to rise with his addition to the depth chart.

TE Colby Parkinson, Rams: Tyler Higbee is out and Parkinson is a sneaky early-season streamer.

TE Kylen Granson, Colts: Granson projects to lead the Colts' tight end committee.

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