"The world is a tragedy to those who feel, but a comedy to those who think."
-- Horace Walpole
I don't know much about old Horace, the 4th Earl of Oxford, but I can relate. One of the funniest things I experienced in the fantasy space occurred on January 6, 2019.
It was the date the football public issued a death certificate for Lamar Jackson's quarterback career. More about that later. First, let's look at Richardson's career to this point.
The Anthony Richardson Career Data
I've watched Richardson's nine games in the NFL. Nothing about his performance has me panicking. Analysts, former players, former coaches, and fans are more emboldened than ever to label Richardson as "raw."
I'm firm in my assessment that Richardson is not raw; he's inexperienced, and there's a big difference.
I don't even need to show you any film on Richardson. Doing so will just spark a debate about development potential that, when you boil it down, will tell you whether the people engaged in the debate have enough perspective on the matter at hand.
Let's look at some data from the first 8-9 games (400-500 snaps) of Richardson's career and the careers of three other quarterbacks--three quarterbacks that have endured a ton of hand-wringing about potential injury because of their gifts as runners.
Anthony Richardson's Initial Starts vs. Three Other QBs
| Richardson | A | B | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 |
| Snaps | 405 | 560 | 528 | N/A |
| Comp | 99 | 106 | 119 | 197 |
| Attempts | 185 | 187 | 227 | 327 |
| Comp % | 53.50% | 56% | 52.40% | 60% |
| Yds | 1360 | 1308 | 1429 | 2605 |
| Y/Att | 7.35 | 6.99 | 6.29 | 7.97 |
| TDs | 11 | 11 | 10 | 18 |
| TD Rate | 4.89% | 5.88% | 3.41% | 4.55% |
| INTs | 7 | 4 | 9 | 10 |
| INT Rate | 3.78% | 2.14% | 3.96% | 3.06% |
| PTDs | 6 | 7 | 5 | 11 |
| PTD Rate | 3.24% | 3.74% | 2.20% | 3.36% |
| RTDs | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| RTD Rate | 8.30% | 3.12% | 7.58% | 10.14% |
| Rushes | 60 | 128 | 66 | 69 |
| Rush Yds | 333 | 612 | 490 | 377 |
| YPC | 5.55 | 4.78 | 7.42 | 5.46 |
The first thing I noticed was that there were few significant differences between them. Player C had a significantly higher completion percentage to begin his career and 100 more passing attempts than the next-best player. Still, his overall TD rate (rush/pass) was similar.
Player C is a former MVP with a Super Bowl appearance.
Player B had a much higher yards-per-carry average and a significantly lower average yards per pass attempt. His yards per attempt was the lowest of the four players, and his interception rate was the worst.
Player B is regarded as one of the best quarterbacks in football.
Player A had the highest TD rate, lowest INT rate, lowest rushing TD rate, and lowest yards per carry. He also had the second-highest completion percentage and the highest overall TD rate.
Player A was written off as a running back disguised as a quarterback. Since then, Player A--Lamar Jackson-- is a two-time MVP who is performing at a level that could earn him a third.
Before I reveal Players B and C, let's look at the career numbers of these players after their first 8-9 starts.
Career Production from Lamar Jackson and Players B and C
| Richardson | Jackson | B | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seasons | N/A | 7 | 7 | 11 |
| Comp Pct | N/A | 64.8% | 63.2% | 59.9% |
| Y/Att | N/A | 7.66 | 7.25 | 7.24 |
| TDs | N/A | 171 | 235 | 269 |
| TD Rate | N/A | 5.25% | 7.20% | 5.90% |
| INTs | N/A | 47 | 78 | 123 |
| INT Rate | N/A | 2% | 2.34% | 2.75% |
| P TDs | N/A | 140 | 179 | 194 |
| P TD Rate | N/A | 6.06% | 5.36% | 4.34% |
| R TDs | N/A | 31 | 56 | 75 |
| R TD Rate | N/A | 3.80% | 8.03% | 6.70% |
Player C had the hottest start to his career. His completion rate was also the highest among the four quarterbacks during those initial rookie starts, but that rate plateaued during his career. His passing TD rate dropped, and his INT rate rose.
Player C took the league by storm as a rookie. He had some excellent seasons as a successful NFL QB. There's a strong likelihood he will be remembered as the worst of these three who've had more than nine games to assess. He's Cam Newton.
Player B might be the player many of you guessed was Newton based on his rushing stats. His completion percentage has risen nearly 11 percent since those first nine starts. His overall TD rate has increased three percent and his INT rate is nearly half of what it was. His career yards per attempt are also a full yard higher than his first nine starts.
Player B is Josh Allen.
Jackson, who I thought had a ceiling on par with Steve Young, has the highest career passing TD rate of the three, the lowest career INT rate, and the highest career completion percentage. As was the case with Richardson after his initial stint as a starter, Jackson's career was pronounced dead on arrival.
The Premature Career Death Certificate
The Chargers beat the Ravens 23-17 in the playoffs. As the fourth quarter played out, I sat in a room with a bunch of football writers projecting tragedy for rookie Lamar Jackson's career.
One of them seated next to me -- a two-time millionaire prize winner in the high-stakes fantasy world -- declared that Jackson would never be a good quarterback. It was the consensus of the room.
I quietly asked him what he saw from this game that led him to this conclusion.
He gave an articulate answer that lacked an ounce of football substance. I realized this man was great at using data to play a game based on football, but at least in this instance, he had little depth of knowledge and perspective about quarterback development in the game that his game was based on.
This information wasn't necessary for him to know. It wasn't for most of the successful individuals in that room who had declared Jackson's career dead before it was truly getting started.
There was one other individual in that room who knew better. He was angry about what he saw. He vented to me privately. He was a good dynasty player, but he didn't have the perspective to think about what he saw, laugh at the mass panic, and enjoy the buying opportunity for what it was.
He was buying, but he was angry about the slights.
Most of the herd in that room weren't serious dynasty players. They have the luxury of waiting until the data tells them a player is on the upswing before declaring that the player is good.
In that respect, pure re-draft and DFS managers can behave like the economists of fantasy football. They can't tell you who is good or bad until there's enough data to confirm what those on the ground floor have already figured out it's too late to act on the information.
This perspective is why you should be enjoying the panic and the buying opportunity for Anthony Richardson.
By the way, the irony is not wasted on me that I'm sharing this story about Jackson a little more than 24 hours after he was 17-for-22 with 5 passing touchdowns and 333 yards from scrimmage on Monday Night Football. Jackson is the top passer in football this year, projected to earn 4,000 yards as a thrower and 1,000 as a runner.
Former Commanders' tight end Logan Paulson, who watched the Ravens-Commanders game from the sideline, told his followers on X and his podcast that Jackson's pre-snap command of defenses is now on par with Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. Joe Whitt, the Washington defensive coordinator, confirmed the same to Paulson after the game.
There was inherent bias clouding the public perspective on Jackson's potential, despite copious film evidence to the contrary. Despite playing in Bobby Petrino's offense at Louisville--widely considered an excellent pro-style offense that worked in the NFL.
Despite an easy opportunity to back out egregious drops from Jackson's completion percentage that should have mitigated concerns. And, despite even well-meaning scouts and football professionals who valued a lot of Jackson's potential as a quarterback, but unknowingly adopted a savior mentality--thinking Jackson would forever need a specialized offense to foster his gifts because he was too limited to become a true passer at the highest level.
It took prolonged negotiations over finances and schematic direction for the Baltimore Ravens to realize that Jackson was their savior, not the other way around.
Quarterback evaluation is difficult enough as it is. It's tougher when narratives are injected into the conversation. Unfortunately, most do so -- even those who think they are on the "right" side of societal arguments.
Re-Draft and Dynasty Advice
Use this perspective to buy into the Anthony Richardson dip. If you're a re-draft manager, Richardson may not live up to his re-draft projection. Injuries have fragmented the potential continuity of his initial starts in the NFL and could lead to a slower development trajectory.
At the same time, the Packers, Bears, Steelers, and Dolphins are four of the five defenses Richardson has faced this year, and they are among the 12 stingiest units with fantasy quarterback production.
When examining the generosity of the remaining schedule, Richardson faces the Texans (8th), Vikings (9th), Bills (16th), Jets (30th), Patriots (26th), Broncos (29th), Titans (24th), and Giants (11th) the rest of the way. Half of that schedule is favorable on paper, and if you look closer at the Patriots, Broncos, and Titans, there are vulnerabilities Richardson could exploit based on the quarterbacks these units have faced.
I'd stay the course with Richardson. Jonathan Taylor will be back soon and the Michael Pittman Jr injury scare appears unfounded.
If you're a dynasty GM, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy...
And enjoy the humor in the panic while you're doing it.
Is that clear enough?
Good luck!