Buy: Kareem Hunt
Rule of thumb: Effective runners who enter the league without top-end speed remain good runners in the league for a while. Their popularity with their team may wane and the organization moves to the next (cheaper and younger) bright and shiny toy, but they are serviceable when called upon as the lead back or high-volume committee option.
During the past six seasons, that's been true of Jordan Howard, David Montgomery, LeGarrette Blount, James Conner, Zack Moss, Josh Jacobs, Jamaal Williams, Devin Singletary, Jeff Wilson Jr., D'Onta Foreman, Mark Ingram II, Mike Davis, and Carlos Hyde.
It's also true of Hunt. What these runners have in common is good footwork, contact, balance, and how to manage risk-reward with the play and the game scenario when the ball is in their hands.
Hunt's game no longer sizzles, but the reservoir of skill and wisdom shines on most plays.
Good tight crease runners w/balance have a tool I call foot displacement.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 8, 2024
They can take a hit to their leg(s) or execute a jump cut & move both feet away from the contact of the def. Their feet move w/the momentum of the hit, not against it.
Kareem Hunt #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/I5pbzFVmGb
Kareem Hunt shows how to get skinny and maintain a position to sell out in short yardage at the right moment.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 8, 2024
Efficient and creative short-yardage mobility. It's vital for all-around RB play. #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/QFregZHBrO
The Chiefs have the offensive line, quarterback, and scheme to get the most from Hunt, PPR's RB16 during the past two weeks. Hunt's likelihood of delivering big-play runs is lower than the hottest names at the position this week, but he has no real holes in the rest of the game.
You want a runner who can win between the tackles and adjust well to his quarterback as a receiving option when leaking from the backfield. That's Hunt.
Sell: Tank Bigsby (Hold If You're Strong)
The best summation of Tank Bigsby I saw on Monday morning was from Matt, a reader in Arizona, in response to the video I'm sharing below.
"Bigsby is getting the pub because of his big, noisy plays, but as you, of course, know, there's an element of craft, nuance, and discipline that separates lead backs from breather backs. Think we still need to see Bigsby show he can do more than run through open gaps."
Where Tank Bigsby has forays of foolishness as a decision-maker that he could eliminate.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 7, 2024
Been this way since Auburn. The corner store is a distraction. Even Reggie Bush figured this out and Tank isn't nearly as dynamic as Reggie was. pic.twitter.com/rIpJZJ9WH7
Bigsby's only notable improvement from his Auburn days has been his security of the ball. While that's the development that is keeping him in the running back rotation, it's not making him a running back who is about to render Travis Etienne Jr. irrelevant.
Bigsby is a great sell-high candidate during the next 2-3 weeks. He has been PPR's RB8 for the past two weeks, and he faces the Bears, Patriots, and Packers during the next three weeks--all teams that are vulnerable to interior running.
Bigsby isn't a great interior runner as a decision-maker, but when he earns big gaps, he can seduce the public with his determined style, burst, and ability to access cutbacks and bounces outside. He's competent but has some holes in this game that he hasn't addressed.
Expect Bigsby to remain the hot name and have fantasy analysts taking victory laps on social media for them guiding you through his emergence due to recent utilization and production.
The context with the most gravity missing from the analysis is that Bigsby is effective against teams that can't stop the interior ground game but non-existent against teams that can't or offenses that build early leads. See for yourself.
It means the Bears and Patriots are Bigsby games. The Packers are vulnerable defensively but have the offense to pull away early, so there's a bigger risk that Bigsby loses viability due to a bad game script.
If you don't trade Bigsby by Week 8, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Detroit, and New York are four defenses during the next seven weeks that will likely generate more favorable game scripts for Travis Etienne Jr. Although Bigsby performed well against the Texans, the Houston offense can force Jacksonville away from the run early in the game.
The one scenario I recommend holding onto Bigsby is if you have a strong squad and you don't need Bigsby as anything more than a match-up-dependent RB3-Flex. Week 16 is a juicy matchup with the Raiders. Also, the value of these defenses could change as injuries mount, so if you can afford to keep Bigsby on your bench, he could pay off.
Buy: JuJu Smith-Schuster
Andy Reid's system is nuanced on a level that trips up many young receivers. Patrick Mahomes II's ability to adjust to defenses as the play unfolds also places demands on young receivers that they can't always handle. Smith-Schuster does four things well:
- He catches the ball.
- He has a thorough knowledge of coverages and how to find openings in the zones.
- He has experience working with quarterbacks who excel off-script.
- He runs well in traffic.
Smith-Schuster isn't a great man-beater as a route runner at this stage of his career. Guess what? Most of Rashee Rice's meaningful plays haven't been man-beater routes. Rice may be bigger, younger, and faster, but so are most of the receivers on the Chiefs' depth chart. They aren't earning production.
One of my favorite features of the Chiefs' offense is how they use format, misdirection, and delayed releases with 1-2 receivers to reshape coverage and give Mahomes an option if he leaves the pocket.
This is a creative "check-down" that's actually an intermediate pass to JuJu Smith-Schuster.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 8, 2024
The delayed release influences the #Saints C2 to get depth & the S then pays attention to the deepest route.
JuJu slips into the open seam & tempos his break for Mahomie.… pic.twitter.com/EzPqdGAVxM
Let's be clear about my "buy" of Smith-Schuster: A huge chunk of his production came last week when his cornerback fell on an over-route, opening the field for a long run after the catch.
Smith-Schuster isn't delivering 1:1 replacement value for Rice. He gives you a flex component worth keeping on your roster and starting as needed unless you're stacked at the position.
Buy/Hold: Alec Pierce
Most are selling because his per-catch average of 28 yards is an obvious candidate for regression to the mean.
What most aren't seeing is that Adonai Mitchell hasn't shown a lot or progress in the offense, thus far. Having four catches against the Jaguars was his most productive day. Most of his work is in the shallow and intermediate range.
He also dropped a high-point opportunity and slipped on two routes. The slipping is a notable issue for me because he has slipped in other games. Mitchell had an egregious slip in the opener after he earned separation on a go route that most inaccurately labeled an Anthony Richardson overthrow.
Slips can be due to weather and turf conditions, but considering that no one else had them and some of Mitchell's footing mishaps came on turf, it's a sign of a potentially deeper problem. Receivers slip when their footwork with routes are unfamiliar to them.
Mitchell might be adjusting to new route demands in the offense, which is forcing him to overthink. When this happens, players make mistakes. Mitchell still has the promise to develop into a capable NFL wide receiver, but I think it won't happen this year.
Although Pierce only had 2 catches for 53 yards in Weeks 3 and 4, his production didn't go to Mitchell or a tight end in the Colts' offense. Mitchell has three more targets than Pierce this year, but that's expected based on how Indianapolis is targeting Mitchell compared to Pierce.
It's also notable that Mitchell has only caught 30 percent of his targets. Pierce has caught 76 percent of his targets and most of his are vertical shots--several of them difficult plays.
Tennessee is a good pass defense on paper. Taking a closer look at who they've faced, they're a paper champion. So is Miami, and there's reason to believe Denver, Minnesota, and Buffalo's units are worse than their stats--especially in the vertical game. Add the Lions and Giants to the list of potentially generous matchups, and Pierce will face nine units with viable scoring potential during the next 11 games.
There's a chance opponents will adjust with more bracketed looks and early prioritization of Pierce in zone coverage and limit him the way the NFL shut down Chase Claypool after his torrid rookie start. I'm skeptical it will pay out that way because Pierce is better at the catch point and makes difficult contested plays. Claypool wasn't.
The Colts could remain stubborn with using Mitchell more than Pierce, but considering that both Joe Flacco and Anthony Richardson have unlocked Pierce's big-play ability, I'd bet against it. Pierce is an ideal WR4 in a fantasy lineup or a risk-reward WR3.
Sell: Bucky Irving
Irving is PPR's RB36 and RB31 during recent weeks, where the fantasy community has been calling for Irving to replace Rachaad White. Ain't gonna happen, folks.
Irving is executing his assignments as well as can be expected. He's benefiting from good execution from his teammates when featured. White is executing well, but he's not getting the same consistent level of execution.
Expect an even split and the Buccaneers to leverage their strengths. They are complementary players. White is big and strong. Irving is quick and slippery. Both can catch and each will have a role, but have clear weaknesses where the other is strong.
If you can find someone still believing in Irving as a bargain, and you can sweeten the pot with him in a multi-player trade, do it.
Buy: Xavier Hutchinson
This should be a cheap addition you might get as a first-come, first-serve player but it may not hurt to spend 1-3 percent of your budget on him before your league gets to that phase of waivers.
Hutchinson is a good route runner, an excellent contested-catch player, and skilled after the catch. He's much more in the mold of Nico Collins than Robert Woods.
Hutchinson is also listed as third on the depth chart. The Texans could use Tank Dell outside and place Woods in the slot, but Hutchinson played well in relief of Collins against the Bills.
Hutchinson ran good routes, worked himself open for C.J. Stroud when the quarterback had to break the pocket, and was efficient after the catch. He appeared comfortable in the game in the same way he looked comfortable having a strong preseason.
Hutchinson won't give you Collins' production -- Diggs and Dell will earn more targets -- but Hutchinson should benefit from match-up advantages that lead to big plays or respectable volume as a fourth receiver who can deliver WR3 value.
Hold: Raheem Mostert
Jaylen Wright looked good this weekend. He was smooth, executed good cutbacks, and didn't make any huge mistakes as a decision-maker.
The same applies to Mostert, who was coming back from injury. Mostert wasn't as efficient as Wright, but he also factored in the passing game. Wright didn't.
Wright probably won't this year unless De'Von Achane is out for a while. Don't dump the older player with a proven track record.
Buy: Jameis Winston and Amari Cooper
The Deshaun Watson Hate Fest has reached Its zenith and while respected sideline beat reporters don't want to question Watson's preparation, Watson's execution is another story. It doesn't help that Watson is the most problematic player in the NFL and possibly sport.
Unfortunately, Winston can relate. In 2016, FSU paid a $950,000 settlement to the woman who accused Winston of rape. There was also an alleged assault of an Uber driver in 2018 that led to Winston settling out of court.
If having either player offends your sensibilities, I understand. At the same time, it's not the NFL's responsibility to dispense justice, it's the U.S. government.
Some may feel these quarterbacks earned privileges due to their celebrity status, which helped them remain free and employable. I have strong views about a lot about our society and football that intersect. That's for another time and place. If you compartmentalize the off-field when managing your fantasy football squad, that's your right, and it's my job to point out potential values.
Winston has worked at his craft from the sidelines and has earned enough intermittent playing time over the years that he could deliver a significant boost in fantasy value to the Cleveland Browns offense if Jimmy Haslam gives the coaching staff the ok to bench Watson. Winston is an aggressive quarterback who will maximize Amari Cooper's value in this offense.
Cooper still has a strong vertical game, and Winston won't shy away from delivering trust throws in Cooper's direction. It wouldn't be a shock if he does the same with Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore. I'd also keep an eye on David Bell and Cedric Tillman because they've probably worked a lot with Winston during practice, and both have contested-catch acumen.
Good luck!