"Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."
--Rita Mae Brown
That must be me because this is the column where I take bold swings and strike out repeatedly. I'm talking f--ugly. So f--ugly that I'm not linking to it. But I'll give you the recent lowlights.
Last Year's Insanity
- Keaontay Ingram earns a Kareem Hunt-like role alongside James Conner.
- J.K. Dobbins delivers top-five RB fantasy production.
- Dalton Kincaid threatens Mike Ditka's rookie TE production record.
- The Cowboys' ground game becomes a three-headed committee.
- Jaleel McLaughlin delivers fantasy starter production.
- (Tank) Bigsby tanks.
- Justyn Ross becomes the Chiefs WR3 by midseason.
- Chris Brooks leads the Dolphins' ground game.
- The Saints are a top-five offense in 2023.
Compared to the past few seasons, I didn't completely whiff on these calls. Tanking Bigbsy saved me. If I'm being especially hopeful -- or my denial is a manifestation of my insanity -- I might have been a year early on Dobbins, McLaughlin, and the Cowboys' running back stable.
Kincaid managed one of the 12 best rookie seasons by a tight end in NFL history, but it was Sam LaPorta who nearly topped Ditka's mark. Brooks, McLaughlin, and Dobbins all looked good in limited time.
It doesn't mitigate the fact that most bold calls are f--ugly if you're truly trying to dig deep rather than making it a vanity column to market yourself next summer.
It's more fun to wade into the darkness. Hit on a bold call that borders on insanity, and it can make a huge difference for your fantasy team. Hit on two, and you're winning championships. Hit on more than two, and you're winning every eligible prize your league offers on the way to becoming a legend.
Last year's bold predictions are keeping the disaster streak alive, but you must have a cornerback mentality with bold calls. So here I am, Charles Dimry, facing Jerry Rice after he has twice rendered me toast, but it's a new play, a new day.
Insanity Call No.1: J.K. Dobbins Delivers An RB1 Season
You're calling on Dobbins, again?
Go back to the quote at the top and you're beginning to understand this year's theme.
Dobbins is unproven in the NFL from a stat-boy perspective. Dobbins has never touched the ball enough to predict strong production. He's an injury concern splitting time with old buddy Gus Edwards who is going to rob Dobbins of red-zone touches.
Blah, blah, blah, blah.
Dobbins never missed a game at Ohio State and touched the ball 796 times in 3 seasons. He suffered a difficult ACL injury that required a cleanup surgery after he rushed back too soon. When he returned, he looked like the same player he was as a rookie in 2020, scoring 9 rushing touchdowns on 134 touches.
Wait, Matt, Dobbins is coming off an Achilles tear. It took D'Onta Foreman years to return to NFL-caliber form, and some argue he isn't the same caliber of back he was at Texas. What insanity does this argument hinge on?
Admittedly, the basis for my argument is insanity. I believe Dobbins when he says he hasn't felt this good since he was at Ohio State.
Taking a player's word for his readiness is almost as bad as working with boxing promoter Don King. Still, there's something about Dobbins' NFL journey that has me believing him.
Dobbins was surly to the media after the ACL tear when he was practicing during the summer and we saw him limping after reps. After the clean-up procedure, Dobbins had a realization about the process of returning to form.
After that second surgery, he looked better. He looked excellent in the 2023 opener before disaster struck again.
I want to believe that Dobbins has already had that moment of realization about rehab, so if he's claiming he has never felt better as a pro, I'm in--as insane as it sounds.
The fact that the pound-it-down-your-throat desires of Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman are in also adds credence to what would otherwise be insanity. It doesn't hurt that Dobbins' draft-day value was low enough to take the chance.
Last year, I predicted Dobbins would earn top-five production at the position. While this year's column is Insanity Predictions, let's not go crazy.
Calling Dobbins an RB1--a top-12 producer in fantasy at his position--is at my limits of insanity.
Dobbins won't be delivering receiving production on par with Austin Ekeler or Christian McCaffrey, but expecting 50-60 receptions isn't outlandish for Dobbins in this offense. I'm projecting 51, just under 4 per game.
The sane side of me who handles my projections and rankings has Dobbins 21st among fantasy RBs in PPR formats if going strictly by my projected data: 214 touches, 1119 yards from scrimmage, and 9 scores.
We're talking about 215.9 PPR points. My No.12 RB by projections is Kyren Williams at 241.6 PPR points. The difference is only 1.5 points per game if both players play the entire season.
That's only 15 yards rushing or an extra 5-yard reception per game for Dobbins. Believing in Dobbins' talent isn't insane. Believing Dobbins will play an entire season is legit insanity.
I don't care. I can't quit him. I need to see it crash and burn one last time.
Insanity Call No.2: Jaleel McLaughlin Is A Fantasy Starter
While I hope I'm a year early on Dobbins, I believe I was a year early on McLaughlin, who impressed enough last year and this summer that he's earning a shot to be Sean Payton's next iteration of Darren Sproles.
Comparing any running back to Sproles has proven to be insanity. True. May I remind you that you're here for it?
Whether it's Javonte Williams or Audric Estime leading the way for Denver's backfield, the Broncos will covet a breakaway complement in the backfield. McLaughlin is far and away the speed element that Williams and Estime lack.
Williams ran a 4.55-second, 40-yard Dash at the NFL Combine. He has Mark Ingram II-like speed. Fast enough to threaten the secondary. McLaughlin ran a 4.44-second, 40-yard Dash at his Pro Day. I suspect that was a slow time for McLaughlin based on what I have seen of his film.
What matters most is how McLaughlin uses his speed. He attacks interior creases with the confident ferocity required to earn chunk plays in the NFL. Many backs with similar or greater speed lack the skill to attack tight creases and lose yards trying to outflank the defense.
McLaughlin's ability to win where the big backs roam makes him a potential early-down contributor who usurps enough of Williams and/or Estime's touches to deliver startable fantasy production.
Let's take a step back from last year's total insanity. It's when I drew parallels between Phillip Lindsay's 1,011-yard, 7-TD campaign as the No.20 fantasy RB in PPR formats in 2019 and his 1,037-yard, 9-TD rookie year as the No.13 RB to McLaughlin's statistical potential.
While 1,000 yards rushing isn't impossible for McLaughlin, it would take multiple injuries for Payton to lean on McLaughlin in this manner. This year, the Broncos have enough bodies of value on the RB depth chart that McLaughlin's fantasy value will be tied more to his work in the passing game.
McLaughlin has worked diligently on his receiving skills and it has shown enough in camp that Payton is giving the second-year back a shot to be the big-play component in the offense. Troy Franklin doesn't appear ready and Marvin Mims has had difficulty separating in practices, according to Cecil Lammey.
Denver's best shot of winning games will come from dominating on the ground and careful management in the passing game with rookie Bo Nix. Expecting that to happen? Pure insanity.
Denver won't be winning a lot of games. Look for a lot of situations where McLaughlin will be the open man when the game is out of hand or the primary target on RPOs, screens, and throwbacks when the game is still a contest.
It may be insanity to expect McLaughlin to earn 1,300 yards from scrimmage and 9 combined touchdowns as Sproles once did under Payton as a Saint in 2011, but 900-1,100 yards and 4-6 scores is plausible. If those totals include 55-65 catches, that's in the realm of a fantasy starter at the position.
Insanity Call No.3: Marvin Harrison Jr. Disappoints
I believe Harrison is a strong long-term NFL and fantasy prospect. I have Harrison projected to earn 77 catches, 928 yards, and 6 scores this year. That's WR38 in PPR formats this year and it will be a disappointment for most if this projection is more accurate than most out there.
While I believe that's a strong total for a rookie receiver, Harrison's average draft position (ADP) is WR15. That's insanity to me. Of course, believing everyone else's reality is skewed when yours is dramatically different is another sign of insanity.
Why am I lower on Harrison? I have three reasons:
- Harrison acclimating to NFL press coverage.
- Flaws attacking/tracking specific targets that will be exploited more often in the NFL.
- Kyler Murray.
One of the best things Harrison does is earn late separation against tight man-to-man coverage. He's a physical receiver who excels at tracking the ball over his shoulder with his back to the quarterback.
What may prove to be insanity yet again is how much people rely on highlights rather than details to understand a player's strengths and weaknesses.
Harrison has the requisite footwork and hand counters to develop into a competent option against press-man. Before that happens, he must shore up some of the flaws with his releases that top NFL corners will exploit weekly.
Harrison leaves his chest open to press defenders way too often. Savvy corners have been able to pin Harrison to the boundary and disrupt his timing with his quarterback.
Too often, Harrison rocks off his back foot before coming off the line. This is a form of wasted movement that gives the opponent an extra beat to dictate action early in the route and win the rep.
Although Harrison's skill at tracking the ball over his shoulder against tight coverage is a strength of his game, attacking the ball when he's facing the target has been more of an adventure than it should be. Quentin Johnston's issues with tracking were more widespread in his game and it has slowed his development.
Johnston's draft-day hype was insanity. Harrison's issues are more isolated than Johnston's, but we'll see some drops that people don't expect from a receiver they've invested so much in so soon.
Kyler Murray is also a concern. Murray gets love in fantasy circles for his production when healthy enough to play most of the season.
- 2019: QB9
- 2020: QB2
- 2021: QB11
It looks good from this angle, but not so much for his receivers. Here's the fantasy ranking of Murray's most productive receiver during this span.
- 2019: WR35 (Larry Fitzgerald)
- 2020: WR4 (DeAndre Hopkins) The next-best WR was Christian Kirk as WR51
- 2021: WR26 (Kirk)
For additional reference, tight ends were not a huge part of the passing game during those years. Zach Ertz had the best year of any tight end during these three seasons when he played 11 games for Arizona and earned 574 yards and 3 scores in 2021.
Otherwise, it was Dan Arnold as TE23 in 2020 and Charles Clay as TE46 in 2019. Nearly one-third (30.76%) of Murray's fantasy production during his three healthy seasons came from his legs.
Fantasy analysts love the potential Konami Code running quarterbacks deliver, but Murray's yardage totals as a passer were the third-lowest of the top-12 quarterbacks each of those seasons.
As we can see, Murray hasn't done a great job of spreading the ball around to support strong fantasy production across the board for his receivers. He's only supported one top-12 fantasy season for a receiver during his career and that option happened to be one of the best receivers in the modern era.
Is it insanity to believe Harrison won't meet fantasy expectations or is it insanity to believe that Murray will suddenly support a top-15 fantasy receiver and a top-5 fantasy tight end during the same season? Considering that Murray rarely climbs a pocket, perhaps the mass view that Arizona's passing game is going to take flight is the source of insanity.
Murray has been a highlight generator and a stats producer, but he hasn't been a good NFL quarterback. When Murray buys time, he often does it at the expense of his blockers, who have advantageous positions against their opponents for Murray to remain in the pocket and make reads. Instead, Murray kills his protection and forces receivers to reroute unnecessarily.
Those eight-second scrambles look great on ESPN. It looks bad in the win-loss column.
Harrison is not a can't-miss prospect for fantasy. He'll be good by the standard I'm projecting, but he'll be as disappointed working with Murray as you are with drafting him as a top-15 fantasy receiver.
Insanity Call No.4: The Saints Deliver a Top-Five Offense
Nah. It's one insanity I can't repeat with Derek Carr.
Now watch Carr become the modern-day Matt Schaub in a Kubiak offense.
Good luck, everyone!
As for me, paging Sigmund Bloom...Sigmund Bloom...report to Ward W...Sigmund Bloom to Ward W.
Follow Matt Waldman on Twitter: @mattwaldman
YouTube Channel: RSP Film Room
