Managing September in fantasy football. Do it well and you can roll into the playoffs with depth. Over- or underreact and it makes contending that much harder.
Welcome to Week 1 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Expecting Disaster
- Managing September (see below)
- Out-of-Nowhere Starters
- Navigating Preseason Minefields
Let's roll.
Managing September
Matt Waldman: Are you a risk taker or conservative with lineup management and free agency during the first four weeks of the season? Answer the following topics with this initial question in mind.
- When do you begin to veer away from your projected starters (based on ADP) for players who performed well in early games?
- Are there players at positions you are more likely to drop early on so you can get a hot commodity on the waiver wire?
- Are there positions where you're more likely to ignore 1-2 strong weeks from a free agent and stick with your current personnel?
- Would you like to share something about managing in September that can help people know when to act and when to stay the course?
How are you managing September as a fantasy GM?
Managing September: When to Fade Projected Starters
Dan Hindery: It may not be the most exciting answer, but the truthful response for managing September in terms of veering away from projected starters depends on a lot of factors.
Why did the player perform better than expected?
Did he get loose for a long touchdown or did he have seven catches on 10 targets?
Is there a running back who played a higher percentage of the snaps than expected?
Part of our offseason preparation is building an understanding of the team-specific context so we can quickly react to new information in an informed manner. If you can go into the season knowing which things would indicate that good early performance is sustainable, these decisions are much easier.
Matt Montgomery: I usually go 2-3 games depending on my record. I very much love the high-risk high-reward style of managing my fantasy teams. Still, I am also aware of the hardships that a team with a winless month can put on your championship aspirations.
Keep in mind that with the diminished preseason, these players may have rust early, but if I'm 2-0 or 3-0, why would I change? This is record-dependent, but you should know who your guys are by October.
Phil Alexander: I lean closer to risky than conservative early in the season, but I don't take risks just for fun. My favorite Footballguys tool, especially early in the season, is our Snap Count data.
Snap counts add important context to early-season box scores. In Week 1 last season, Kyren Williams ran for two touchdowns, and Puka Nacua posted 119 yards, which made them hot waiver adds. How could you be confident these performances weren't a flash in the pan?
Williams played 65% of the offensive snaps compared to 35% for Cam Akers (who out-carried Williams 22 to 15), and Nacua played 78% of the snaps and received 15 targets. If you pushed your FAAB budget all in on one or both players last year, chances are your team made it deep into the playoffs.
Likewise, the snap data is equally helpful when evaluating your projected starters early in the season. When considering benching a player you were counting on when you drafted, it's important to know if they'll get the chance to turn it around.
If they're dominating snaps and commanding targets or touches, the counting stats will follow. But if they're not seeing the field enough, the team is tipping its hand, and you shouldn't wait long to go in a different direction.
Gary Davenport: I tend to lean conservative early in the year with managing my lineup—start the players you drafted to start. Don't overreact to small sample sizes. All that good stuff.
But I also tend to be aggressive in free agency, if only because (in my experience) the odds of landing a Puka Nacua or Kyren Williams are better in September than in November. Teams are going to surprise us early—in multiple ways. The colder the weather gets, the less likely it is there's a league-swinger who becomes available.
Waldman: You're such an AFC North guy, Gary. It's like you think most teams still play in cold weather.
Davenport: The North remembers.
Managing September: Positions You'll Pivot Early for a Hot Free Agent
Hindery: Actively managing the tight end is a position where I like to be especially fast to pivot based on new information. Many tight ends are talented enough to produce starting fantasy numbers if their offense decides to feature the position.
We do not always know ahead of time which offenses are going to be tight-end friendly. When we get indications a tight end will be featured, it makes sense to be aggressive. Get that player from waivers and jettison an underperformer at the position.
Jeff Bell: If I take a shot on a deep wide receiver who has not earned a meaningful amount of volume, I will cut bait early. The same is true with managing running backs I stashed who we find out aren't in store for an increase in volume when the starter gets hurt.
Davenport: My backup quarterback is almost always the first casualty on such occasions. Who doesn't relish the chance to start Derek Carr in a must-win Week 11 game?
The exception to managing this way is if I have an elite tight end and can rid myself of the second option.
Montgomery: Running Backs are the most interchangeable position as far as the bench players go. Most teams utilize a 1-2 punch (some even have a third) and with this, I think we need to follow the variance when other players pop early.
When managing September, don't look at stats. Instead, look at snaps played and team performance. If a player played a lot and the team was successful, that is a player that should take precedence and get your preferred waivers early in the season and you should trim the fat of a handcuff or “high upside” guy.
Managing September: Positions You Won't Pivot from Early for the Hot Free Agent
Hindery: Managing expectations with players includes understanding player histories. Quarterback is a position where one or two good weeks are unlikely to change my mind about a player, especially if we have a long track record indicating that player's typical fantasy performance. If Baker Mayfield throws three touchdown passes in Week 1 and Week 2, it will not have a major impact on how I view his 2024 prospects.
Davenport: Wide receivers and running backs tend to get a longer leash, although that's hardly set in stone. If the targets/touches aren't there three weeks in, they probably aren't going to magically appear in Week 6.
Bell: To approach this question a little differently, here's an example about managing potential fool's gold. Wide receivers who do not have underlying support for a raw fantasy total are often early-year fool's gold.
Waldman: In English?
Bell: Ha! Someone like Tyquan Thornton in recent years who earns two catches against coverage busts and scores twice. Despite earning 20 fantasy points, he caught 2 balls on 4 targets. It's not enough reliable volume to take Thornton. Let someone else make that claim.
Montgomery: I'll stick with Jeff's line of thinking with managing strong weeks from players and focus on the waiver wire. I'm ignoring 1-2 strong performances from free-agent tight ends.
Unless your league has a premium on points for the position, we should be cautious when going after a guy who isn't playing on the level of Travis Kelce or Sam LaPorta. These players typically score well for their position, but unless they pop to elite levels never really score more than what would be considered a flex-worthy option. I
I would rather hold to my convictions on players already on my team than chase “This year's Puka Nacua” at a position that isn't Wide Receiver or Running Back.
Managing September: When to Act and When to Stay the Course
Hindery: One of the biggest keys to success with managing September is getting an early read on which offenses might be much better than expected and then trying to find angles to take advantage of the possibility if you are correct. Last season, it became obvious quickly that the Texans were not the league-worst offensive unit many projected.
Players like C.J. Stroud, Tank Dell, and Dalton Schultz were available on waivers early in the season. If you were one of the first in your league to recognize the Texans found something with C.J. Stroud, you were able to make moves to level up your roster.
Bell: Selling low can often be selling high in disguise. The NFL has a lot of one-week variances and managing them wisely is valuable.
Christian Kirk's Week 1 in 2023 was a prime example.
Waldman: Oh, as a Kirk guy over Ridley last summer, I like this one.
Bell: As you get into Weeks 3 and 4, if the production isn't happening for a buzzy preseason option, pivoting to a solid producer can turn a season around even if you are losing the trade.
Waldman: In other words, managing a bad trade means not compounding the loss by not pivoting.
Bell: Bingo.
Montgomery: Your baseline goal every September is to come out of the month 2-2. This is the first quarter of the year, and it is a foundation for your playoff run.
If your record is better than 2-2, you're sitting on Easy Street and the decisions are easier to make with confidence. Anything less and you need to begin shaking things up and taking bigger risks.
It is common for a season to be “over” midway through October, so managing September is serious business. You want to still be with the pack in October.
Alexander: If there is one thing I would share about managing September and winning fantasy football in general, it's that saving your free agent bidding dollars is overrated. Williams and Nacua were perfect examples in 2023.
If you blew your entire budget on either of them after Week 1 last year, you gained the RB7 and WR4. If you drafted well, your team became the instant favorite, and if you drafted poorly, your team was still in immediate contention.
James Conner in 2018 is another example that stands out in recent memory. When managing your waiver options, don't be afraid to push all in after one week if the player has a realistic chance at fantasy superstardom. You'll still be able to figure out bye weeks, stream defenses, and even beat your opponents to some players using continual rolling waivers.
Davenport: My career Week 1 record is…not good, although it's absolutely not because I draft badly. I commissioned a study and it backs me up. Still, as someone who generally starts slowly, the best advice I can give about managing September is just to take a breath.
We're all anxious for football—anxious to compete (if only online). Too many folks get caught up in a couple of early losses and just wind up making a less-than-ideal situation worse.
Thanks for reading. Check out the links below for all of this week's roundtable topics.
Good luck!
