Managing September in fantasy football. Do it well and you can roll into the playoffs with depth. Over- or underreact and it makes contending that much harder.
Welcome to Week 1 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Expecting Disaster
- Managing September (see below)
- Out-of-Nowhere Starters
- Navigating Preseason Minefields
Let's roll.
Managing September
Matt Waldman: Are you a risk taker or conservative with lineup management and free agency during the first four weeks of the season? Answer the following topics with this initial question in mind.
- When do you begin to veer away from your projected starters (based on ADP) for players who performed well in early games?
- Are there players at positions you are more likely to drop early on so you can get a hot commodity on the waiver wire?
- Are there positions where you're more likely to ignore 1-2 strong weeks from a free agent and stick with your current personnel?
- Would you like to share something about managing in September that can help people know when to act and when to stay the course?
How are you managing September as a fantasy GM?
Managing September: When to Fade Projected Starters
Dan Hindery: It may not be the most exciting answer, but the truthful response for managing September in terms of veering away from projected starters depends on a lot of factors.
Why did the player perform better than expected?
Did he get loose for a long touchdown or did he have seven catches on 10 targets?
Is there a running back who played a higher percentage of the snaps than expected?
Part of our offseason preparation is building an understanding of the team-specific context so we can quickly react to new information in an informed manner. If you can go into the season knowing which things would indicate that good early performance is sustainable, these decisions are much easier.
Matt Montgomery: I usually go 2-3 games depending on my record. I very much love the high-risk high-reward style of managing my fantasy teams. Still, I am also aware of the hardships that a team with a winless month can put on your championship aspirations.
Keep in mind that with the diminished preseason, these players may have rust early, but if I'm 2-0 or 3-0, why would I change? This is record-dependent, but you should know who your guys are by October.
Phil Alexander: I lean closer to risky than conservative early in the season, but I don't take risks just for fun. My favorite Footballguys tool, especially early in the season, is our Snap Count data.
Snap counts add important context to early-season box scores. In Week 1 last season, Kyren Williams ran for two touchdowns, and Puka Nacua posted 119 yards, which made them hot waiver adds. How could you be confident these performances weren't a flash in the pan?
Williams played 65% of the offensive snaps compared to 35% for Cam Akers (who out-carried Williams 22 to 15), and Nacua played 78% of the snaps and received 15 targets. If you pushed your FAAB budget all in on one or both players last year, chances are your team made it deep into the playoffs.
Likewise, the snap data is equally helpful when evaluating your projected starters early in the season. When considering benching a player you were counting on when you drafted, it's important to know if they'll get the chance to turn it around.
If they're dominating snaps and commanding targets or touches, the counting stats will follow. But if they're not seeing the field enough, the team is tipping its hand, and you shouldn't wait long to go in a different direction.
Gary Davenport: I tend to lean conservative early in the year with managing my lineup—start the players you drafted to start. Don't overreact to small sample sizes. All that good stuff.
But I also tend to be aggressive in free agency, if only because (in my experience) the odds of landing a Puka Nacua or Kyren Williams are better in September than in November. Teams are going to surprise us early—in multiple ways. The colder the weather gets, the less likely it is there's a league-swinger who becomes available.
Waldman: You're such an AFC North guy, Gary. It's like you think most teams still play in cold weather.
Davenport: The North remembers.